2024-2025 At Large Resume watch

[jruby]

I think win out regular season and lose to vcu in the final of A10 tournament gets mason in. If vcu only loses to us and then beats us in the final its perfect scenario for A10 to get both in or the other way around.

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

A victory isn’t a victory anymore. Winning margin means much more with the Net rankings.

It may force bubble teams to keep their starters in til the end even in a blow out.

 

[Verdad]

Based on our ESPN estimated seed, we are projected as an at large at the moment - if vcu were to somehow magically be in first place and we otherwise have the same resume.

We are projected as an 11 while last two teams in (Arkansas and WF) are projected as 12's.

If you look at bracketmatrix (site that surveys all of the bracketology websites and aggregates the seeding), they have us as a 12 seed and in as the autobid, with an average seed of 11.9 and appearing on 66% of the brackets: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Point being - we are squarely on the bubble. If you had to create an image of us as an elephant, and the bubble as a ball, this would perfectly sum up our position:

 

[Verdad]

Side note, UCF has totally nosedived after their very close loss at Kansas, and has lost 6 in a row to eliminate themselves from bubble consideration

 

[Verdad]

Big games tonight for other bubble teams (root against team in bold):
Villanova @ UConn
Oklahoma @ Florida
Butler @ Xavier
Kansas @ BYU
Fresno St @ San Diego St

 

[psyclone]

Big games tonight for other bubble teams (root against team in bold):
Villanova @ UConn
Oklahoma @ Florida
Butler @ Xavier
Kansas @ BYU
Fresno St @ San Diego St

This is helpful!

 

[undertherock]

Big games tonight for other bubble teams (root against team in bold):
Villanova @ UConn
Oklahoma @ Florida
Butler @ Xavier
Kansas @ BYU
Fresno St @ San Diego St

Need more of these everyday this week until the vcu game please...then we'll see if we can still have the same discussion after.

 

[Pikapppatri8]

Winning out gets us an at-large.

Under old models..... yes. In the current environment - there will be some ACC, SEC or Big10 with a mediocre record that will take any spot we would have got. Win it all in DC and then we dance.

 

[MasonSAE4]

Winning out gets us an at-large.

Winning out plus *at least* one A10 tourney win. Almost certainly two.

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

Big games tonight for other bubble teams (root against team in bold):
Villanova @ UConn
Oklahoma @ Florida
Butler @ Xavier
Kansas @ BYU
Fresno St @ San Diego St

Villanova loses by 7
Oklahoma down by 23 with 8 minutes left

Stars are lining up!

 

[TweederGMU]

Villanova loses by 7
Oklahoma down by 23 with 8 minutes left

Stars are lining up!

Xavier is going to win, will be 17-10. As of today they are next four out.

Pittsburgh is winning against Syracuse, need them to lose as Pitt is kinda still on the bubble but have a lot of work to do.

SD State and BYU losing tonight will be crucial as they are both currently In.

 

[psyclone]

Xavier is going to win, will be 17-10. As of today they are next four out.

Pittsburgh is winning against Syracuse, need them to lose as Pitt is kinda still on the bubble but have a lot of work to do.

SD State and BYU losing tonight will be crucial as they are both currently In.

BYU up 20 at the half. Boo!

 

[Verdad]

BYU up 31 now, this win should them solidly inside the bubble.

 

[MasonSAE4]

I really wouldn’t worry about anyone else. In a strange way we control our destiny. It’s win all the way to the final, or win the final. The former will be enough for a bid as well be ranked in that scenario, the second is an auto bid.

 

[Verdad]

Tournament selection for us doesn’t happen in a vacuum- how other bubble teams perform has a direct effect on our standing.

 

[GMUgemini]

Tournament selection for us doesn’t happen in a vacuum- how other bubble teams perform has a direct effect on our standing.

Definitely. But it would seem hard to believe that if we went 17-1 in conference and made the finals and lost (28-6 overall? Trying to count how many more wins that would be) that we’d be left out.

I’d also much rather lose to Dayton (or anyone else) than vcu in the finals too. They can have fun in the NIT again.

Best case is just win the auto-bid and only have to worry about seeding and matchup not whether your name gets called at all.

 

[Verdad]

Definitely. But it would seem hard to believe that if we went 17-1 in conference and made the finals and lost (28-6 overall? Trying to count how many more wins that would be) that we’d be left out.

I’d also much rather lose to Dayton (or anyone else) than vcu in the finals too. They can have fun in the NIT again.

Best case is just win the auto-bid and only have to worry about seeding and matchup not whether your name gets called at all.

Agree on all 3 accounts!

 

[Verdad]

Villanova @ UConn - loss
Oklahoma @ Florida - loss
Butler @ Xavier - win
Kansas @ BYU - HUGE WIN
Fresno St @ San Diego St - WIN

Nova and Oklahoma were not able to secure quality road wins, Xavier avoided a bad loss and San Diego St avoided a bad loss.

Overall, BYU moves up and rest probably stay where they were.

 

[Verdad]

Bilas has vcu at 39 and us at 58, while misrepresenting the A10 as a "one-bid league for a while now": https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...-top-68-teams-mens-college-basketball-2024-25

 

[Verdad]

2/19 games (root against bubble team in bold):
6pm UMass at vcu
6:30pm Nebraska @ PSU
7pm
Vandy at UK
Cincy @ WVU
SMU @ ND
NC State @ UNC
7:30pm UIC @ Drake
8pm Bradley @ Illinois State

9pm
Arkansas @ Auburn
Gonzaga @ WSU