2024-2025 At Large Resume watch

[GMUgemini]

The CMU/ECU losses are crushing and the formula favors margin of victory above expected spread so our number of close OT wins don’t really move the needle as much as beating a team by 20 when you were supposed to win by 5-10.

Yes. Warren Nolan keeps track of the old RPI formula and the difference is pretty stark for us:

NET: 64
RPI: 31

 

[Falco]

Yes. Warren Nolan keeps track of the old RPI formula and the difference is pretty stark for us:

NET: 64
RPI: 31

I always liked the RPI rating better haha.

 

[psyclone]

Bracketology update-Work to do:

vcu Rams (66%)

vcu picked up another win Wednesday -- its fourth straight and 10th in 11 games -- to raise its NCAA tournament chances above 60%. A lot of that probability (though not all) is due to the Rams being solid favorites to win the A-10 tournament, and the conference has hovered between one to two NCAA berths in recent seasons. Because vcu ranks only 54th in SOR, it is no sure thing to make the tourney without an auto-bid; the A-10 is expected to send only 1.2 teams to the brackets on average. (Updated Feb. 13 at 11:31 a.m.)
Next game: Wednesday vs. UMass, 6 p.m. (CBSSN)​

George Mason Patriots (37%)

George Mason overcame a 16-point deficit at home against Saint Joseph's on Saturday to win its 11th straight game. However, it was only the Patriots' second win against a BPI top-100 team, and they have just one real résumé-boosting game remaining during the regular season (at vcu on Feb. 22). George Mason's tourney hopes might rest on the A-10 tournament. (Updated Feb. 15 at 3:06 p.m.)
Next game: Saturday at vcu, 4 p.m. (CBSSN)

Bubble Watch: Nebraska's chances improve, plus forecast's newest 'lock'

Selection Sunday is on March 16, so let's track which teams can play their way in or out of the tournament.

www.espn.com

 

[gmujim92]

Bracketology update-Work to do:

vcu Rams (66%)

vcu picked up another win Wednesday -- its fourth straight and 10th in 11 games -- to raise its NCAA tournament chances above 60%. A lot of that probability (though not all) is due to the Rams being solid favorites to win the A-10 tournament, and the conference has hovered between one to two NCAA berths in recent seasons. Because vcu ranks only 54th in SOR, it is no sure thing to make the tourney without an auto-bid; the A-10 is expected to send only 1.2 teams to the brackets on average. (Updated Feb. 13 at 11:31 a.m.)​

Next game: Wednesday vs. UMass, 6 p.m. (CBSSN)​

George Mason Patriots (37%)

George Mason overcame a 16-point deficit at home against Saint Joseph's on Saturday to win its 11th straight game. However, it was only the Patriots' second win against a BPI top-100 team, and they have just one real résumé-boosting game remaining during the regular season (at vcu on Feb. 22). George Mason's tourney hopes might rest on the A-10 tournament. (Updated Feb. 15 at 3:06 p.m.)
Next game: Saturday at vcu, 4 p.m. (CBSSN)

Bubble Watch: Nebraska's chances improve, plus forecast's newest 'lock'

Selection Sunday is on March 16, so let's track which teams can play their way in or out of the tournament.

www.espn.com

ESPN’s BPI is crap … last week they still had North Carolina at 80% to dance even though they’re 1-10 vs Quad 1. Most serious bracketologists appropriately have them out.

 

[jessej]

Need some t-shirts that say

Win and In
LISTING THE last games on the schedule

(yes, i know that is not correct as the auto bid goes to the Tournament winner)

 

[Falco]

ESPN’s BPI is crap … last week they still had North Carolina at 80% to dance even though they’re 1-10 vs Quad 1. Most serious bracketologists appropriately have them out.

Their name alone will get them in

 

[Verdad]

Latest AP poll, #32 with 15 votes

Latest Coaches poll, vcu with 2 and us with 1 vote (34th and 35th):

2024-25 Men's College Basketball Rankings - ESPN

Find the 2024-25 NCAAM rankings on ESPN, including the Coaches and AP poll for the top 25 NCAAM teams.

www.espn.com

*Providence still receiving zero votes in both polls

 

[MasonSAE4]

Latest Coaches poll, vcu with 2 and us with 1 vote:

2024-25 Men's College Basketball Rankings - ESPN

Find the 2024-25 NCAAM rankings on ESPN, including the Coaches and AP poll for the top 25 NCAAM teams.

www.espn.com

That’s the coaches poll. We have 15 to their 0 in the AP.

 

[psyclone]

That’s the coaches poll. We have 15 to their 0 in the AP.

Hard to believe with the ram's history and NET. Writers must be buying in to the 11 game winning streak (despite the narrowness of the margins) and the Skinn/Final 4 story line.

 

[MasonSAE4]

Hard to believe with the ram's history and NET

It’s all recency bias when you get to the low end. We’re there because of the winning streak, not because of our overall record. If our one conference loss was four games ago, we wouldn’t be getting votes.

 

[jruby]

Beat vcu and get ranked.

 

[phoenix-arizona]

If Mason’s at large resume is seen as being thin, the only good thing to come out of losing to vcu is that it would probably take any and all guess work out of bubble status. It would force the team to realize that they have to win the tournament to dance.

 

[gmujim92]

Their name alone will get them in

I don’t think so, they need to go on a run

 

[GMU79]

Their name alone will get them in

Not this year it won't. And they missed it year before last. The year after their championship game loss.

 

[psyclone]

That’s the coaches poll. We have 15 to their 0 in the AP.

In the AP, we have 1 more than Gonzaga and only 5 fewer than UConn!

 

[Pikapppatri8]

This thread seems to be an exercise in logical self abuse...... to get in we must win the A-10 tourney. Period. There is no at large path for us. Trying to manifest it through mental circumlocutions is like slamming your junk into a door jam thinking it will feel good.

 

[Verdad]

There is no at large path for us.

You are wrong.

 

[Walter]

Winning out gets us an at-large.

 

[psyclone]

Another source for bracketology (Sporting News) has us as a #12, but as an automatic qualifier. No at-large for the A10.

MSN

 

[GMUYoda]

Always puts a smile on my face seeing the first team out in this mornings bracketology... vcu

Men's Bracketology: Purdue, Kentucky losses are Wisconsin's gain

Let's map out the domino effects in the bracket as we get closer to Selection Sunday. The Badgers are among the big winners from this past weekend.

www.espn.com

Mason AQ 11 seed vs Illinois... Kentucky would loom next if somehow advanced... in the Providence part of the Midwest portion of the bracket