2018-2019 Season Projections

[smccart5]

If Reuter can get 15 and 10 every game, this will be a good team on a national level. If not, we'll be a good team in the A10. Its easy to get excited about a season, and then you see Duke's NBA lineup and you're quickly humbled.

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

..... Its easy to get excited about a season, and then you see Duke's NBA lineup and you're quickly humbled.

Yea, all 5 starters for UCONN in 2006 made it to the NBA.

 

[GMUgemini]

Yea, all 5 starters for UCONN in 2006 made it to the NBA.

Was thinking the same thing...

 

[GMUSig03]

Yea, all 5 starters for UCONN in 2006 made it to the NBA.

But not the 2006 Final Four!

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

But not the 2006 Final Four!

You are correct, sir. 4 out of 5

 

[Walter]

I am going to book my hotel in Brooklyn now.

 

[Petey Buckets]

Not sure where the best place for this is so I'm putting it here. The A10 has been getting steadily worse as a conference since the '12-13 season. It's easy to sweep away overall conference rankings and number of bids to the tournament, but the concerning thing for me here is that the top, middle, and bottom are all getting worse:

 

[GSII]

Enter Butler and Temple back in and A10 is getting better.

What I think is a better measure is, Where are the quantities of A) ncaa bids trending B)ncaa tourney wins trending? Feels like when A10 goes to the dance, it makes some noise.

 

[MasonSAE4]

Not sure where the best place for this is so I'm putting it here. The A10 has been getting steadily worse as a conference since the '12-13 season. It's easy to sweep away overall conference rankings and number of bids to the tournament, but the concerning thing for me here is that the top, middle, and bottom are all getting worse:

Not sure how KenPom is calculated but if it’s anything like RPI then couldn’t this be more an effect of the bottom couple of teams getting worse and having a knock on effect because everyone else has to play them?

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

Not sure how KenPom is calculated but if it’s anything like RPI then couldn’t this be more an effect of the bottom couple of teams getting worse and having a knock on effect because everyone else has to play them?

Great point. An anchor weighs down the entire ship.

 

[mkaufman1]

Enter Butler and Temple back in and A10 is getting better.

What I think is a better measure is, Where are the quantities of A) ncaa bids trending B)ncaa tourney wins trending? Feels like when A10 goes to the dance, it makes some noise.

Agreed. On average we see 3 teams from the A10 to the dance, and usually at least one of them wins a game. That is still very good.

That said you have had some teams sag or continue to sag (GW has gotton worse, Fordham hasn't improved), but some teams could start climbing upwards like Duquense or Lasalle. Hopefully all teams continue to be getting better, except vcu, they can rot in hell.

 

[Falco]

Not sure where the best place for this is so I'm putting it here. The A10 has been getting steadily worse as a conference since the '12-13 season. It's easy to sweep away overall conference rankings and number of bids to the tournament, but the concerning thing for me here is that the top, middle, and bottom are all getting worse:

I blame Paul Hewitt and Tom O'Connor for weighing down the average.

But in all seriousness, it’s alarming that the A10 is ranked 9th according to Conference Power rankings according to BPI. The realignment of the Big East has had a negative impact on mid-majors. Nevertheless, to put things in perspective the CAA is ranked 17th.

1. Big 12
2. ACC
3. Big East
4. Big 10
5. SEC
6. American
7. PAC 12
8. Mountain West
9. A10.

 

[MasonSAE4]

I blame Paul Hewitt and Tom O'Connor for weighing down the average.

But in all seriousness, it’s alarming that the A10 is ranked 9th according to Conference Power rankings according to BPI. The realignment of the Big East has had a negative impact on mid-majors. Nevertheless, to put things in perspective the CAA is ranked 17th.

1. Big 12
2. ACC
3. Big East
4. Big 10
5. SEC
6. American
7. PAC 12
8. Mountain West
9. A10.

Paul Hewitt was a bad coach, but one of Wake Forest’s coaches literally killed a guy this weekend.

I’d probably still take him over Hewitt though.

 

[psyclone]

Paul Hewitt was a bad coach, but one of Wake Forest’s coaches literally killed a guy this weekend.

I’d probably still take him over Hewitt though.

I believe the coach in question was once a vcu assistant.

 

[GMUgemini]

I blame Paul Hewitt and Tom O'Connor for weighing down the average.

But in all seriousness, it’s alarming that the A10 is ranked 9th according to Conference Power rankings according to BPI. The realignment of the Big East has had a negative impact on mid-majors. Nevertheless, to put things in perspective the CAA is ranked 17th.

1. Big 12
2. ACC
3. Big East
4. Big 10
5. SEC
6. American
7. PAC 12
8. Mountain West
9. A10.

Not that alarming to me. The Big East split, dispersed a lot of power between the AAC and the Big East (which make basketball a P5+2 power conference league, especially now that Wichita State joined the AAC). The Mountain West being above the A10 isn't all that surprising either, given the history of Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, and Utah State. That's a surprisingly strong conference out west.

I think what's hurting the A-10 more than conference expansion (although losing Xavier and Temple were big blows -- I don't count Butler, because they were in the conference for like one year), is coaching loss. The A-10 needs to find a way to hang on to their good coaches longer (like Temple managed to do when they were a conference member). Guys like McKillop (and Paulsen?) are critical to the A-10's longevity. As an example, at some point vcu's rotating coaching position was going to bite them in the a**, and it seems they finally ran out of home runs.

 

[Mason2005]

Paul Hewitt was a bad coach, but one of Wake Forest’s coaches literally killed a guy this weekend.

I’d probably still take him over Hewitt though.

A drunk dude starts to pound your car thinking you are an Uber, most of us would punch him in the face too.

Sent from my XT1575 using Tapatalk

 

[GMUgemini]

Not sure where the best place for this is so I'm putting it here. The A10 has been getting steadily worse as a conference since the '12-13 season. It's easy to sweep away overall conference rankings and number of bids to the tournament, but the concerning thing for me here is that the top, middle, and bottom are all getting worse:

It seems the KenPom rankings don't necessarily predict NCAA tournament success?

St. Louis was ranked 14th by KenPom in 2012 and they made the round of 32 (lost to Michigan State 65-61). Rhode Island was ranked 43 by KenPom in 2018 and made the round of 32 (losing to Duke 87-62), both had fairly similar seed lines (8 for Saint Louis, 7 for Rhode Island).

The team that actually made the most noise in 2012 in the A10 was Xavier, and they were ranked 53 (Xavier made the Sweet 16 that season as a 10 seed).

The A10 received 4 bids in 2012, 3 bids in 2018.

 

[GSII]

Didnt Lasalle go on a nice tourney run recently?

 

[GMUgemini]

Didnt Lasalle go on a nice tourney run recently?

Sweet 16 in 2013.

Richmond’s was in 2011.

Dayton’s Elite Run was in 2014.

I’m trying to remember if we’ve had another make it out of the first weekend since then.

 

[Cedric Dempsey]

Not that alarming to me. The Big East split, dispersed a lot of power between the AAC and the Big East (which make basketball a P5+2 power conference league, especially now that Wichita State joined the AAC). The Mountain West being above the A10 isn't all that surprising either, given the history of Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, and Utah State. That's a surprisingly strong conference out west.

I think what's hurting the A-10 more than conference expansion (although losing Xavier and Temple were big blows -- I don't count Butler, because they were in the conference for like one year), is coaching loss. The A-10 needs to find a way to hang on to their good coaches longer (like Temple managed to do when they were a conference member). Guys like McKillop (and Paulsen?) are critical to the A-10's longevity. As an example, at some point vcu's rotating coaching position was going to bite them in the a**, and it seems they finally ran out of home runs.

Good read. The top 7 are inter-changeable due to top to bottom strength, markets, budgets, media rights revenue and institutional buy-in. The A10 will always be positioned just outside because the top to bottom strength and all-in conference culture is not there. No media rights deal to solidify basketball excellence is a huge issue for all, but mostly for the small private institutions struggling with enrollment concerns and affordability. The A10 is a GREAT coaches conference located in great talent markets. It is what it is.