Today

[Cool Disco Dan]

What exactly would you expect in addition to that, a voucher for a free meal at Johnson Center food court? I'd rather get a short response that was most likely written by the AD rather than a canned response with a bunch of lip service.

Kudos to P49 for voicing his disapproval in a respectful manner.

I've done some work in the past for organizations that rely heavily on fundraising/memberships and I'll tell you what they would do: They'd engage to see if they could put up a fight for those dollars. They'd email him and ask him if someone from the Athletic Dept could give him a call. If he says 'yes', he doesn't really want to pull his donation, he probably just needs/wants a little attention, a conversation and some warm and fuzzies....

So you put a perky 23 year old on the phone to tell him how important his donation is and all the good that they've done with his money (the canned spiel). You listen to his concerns, tell him the Ath Dept gets it and that the AD is committed to righting the ship and that the struggles won't continue....And you ask him to stick with you for another year. And, odds are, he will.

 

[gmutom]

So you put a perky 23 year old on the phone to tell him how important his donation is and all the good that they've done with his money (the canned spiel). You listen to his concerns, tell him the Ath Dept gets it and that the AD is committed to righting the ship and that the struggles won't continue....And you ask him to stick with you for another year. And, odds are, he will.

Dan, I appreciate your insight and expertise, but do you really think P49 would change his mind if a perky 23-year old called him with a rah-rah speech about how important his donation is?

I do think you have a point that our administration should fight to keep every donor, but those calls should be coming from people with clout like Adam Brick, Andy Ruge, Max Baker, etc.

 

[KAOriginal]

Hewitt and TOC are fortunate we have no media outlets covering the program, because there really is no accountability after a season like this other than losing a few donors and season ticket holders like Brian and P49.

As much as we'd all like TOC and/or Cabrera to make a public statement about the program moving forward — especially if Hewitt is retained — it's not like they are feeling pressured to do so. I'm of the opinion that it would be wise for them to be proactive, but only time will tell if they agree.

Why at one time I said this maybe one of the best places to work in college athletics. Larger known school, decent budget, no football and NO ACCOUNTABILITY.

Sports is the "side door" mentality and it explains the blown FF opportunity treating it as an aberration instead of an expectation.

Sure you might have to get lip service to a few die hards. But in the end no one is breathing down your neck. The only issue they face is that they paid Hewitt 3X+ the money they could have paid for the same results had they just dumped a bunch of no name assistants names in a hat and drew one out to be HC....

 

[Patriotfan49]

Dan, I appreciate your insight and expertise, but do you really think P49 would change his mind if a perky 23-year old called him with a rah-rah speech about how important his donation is?

I do think you have a point that our administration should fight to keep every donor, but those calls should be coming from people with clout like Adam Brick, Andy Ruge, Max Baker, etc.

Speaking for myself no, a 23 year old wouldnt change my direction. Especially considering the talk we get the past few years in roder to gain our money....but the "promises" or "plans" never seem to quite make it to being done. (Again for those like Jollay who like to mock those that actually do donate, no matter what level....I have no confusion that I probably dont matter at all in the grand scheme of things...Im no mega donor.) I would appreciate the effort, but if the best they can do is have some part time student call me.....that says about enough. However yes, any of the names you mentioned would provide more of an effect than a student reading a print off. But still, that only goes so far. Talk is only that...talk.

That is a HUGE issue with where we are at with the AD...there is no accountability and the only tiny bit of leverage that we fans/donors/sth have is an email and yanking our support. Even that doesnt seem to matter or bother. The general feel that the program gives off, is they are more than happy to continue to ignore the obvious trends and continue to find the silver linings in things to keep themselves happy and "unaware" of the problems. Just gives fans a general apathetic feel...which is exactly what has lead us to this current situation.

 

[GMUgemini]

It's all relative. Whereas 100 emails might seem like a lot to us (and even that is probably overstating things), I bet the AD at a BCS school would receive thousands upon thousands of emails in a similar situation. Hewitt and TOC are fortunate we have no media outlets covering the program, because there really is no accountability after a season like this other than losing a few donors and season ticket holders like Brian and P49.

As much as we'd all like TOC and/or Cabrera to make a public statement about the program moving forward — especially if Hewitt is retained — it's not like they are feeling pressured to do so. I'm of the opinion that it would be wise for them to be proactive, but only time will tell if they agree.

I would say shedding almost 2,000 fans per game from our high in 2006-2007 is pretty damning and I've made sure Cabrera knows we used to draw that. Even a few short years ago we were sitting at 5,800. Next year we will be lucky to crack 4,000 fans per game.

So let's do the math. We lose 100 donors and season ticket holders, let's say on average they donate $400 a year to the program. That's 40,000. And let's say they average two tickets per fan. That's 200 tickets at 196 or an additional 39,200.

Ok so losing 79,200 may not seem like a lot per year. We can absorb that, right? But we aren't done. Our last great season we averaged 5,800 (a reasonable estimate of what our attendance would be if we were successful) fans per game and we are probably looking at maybe 4000 per game (if we are lucky) so we are losing out on an additional 1,600 fans per game for 14 or so games a year. Single tickets are $16 so that's 1,600 x 14 x 16 = $358,400. So now we are talking about some serious cash for a basketball only conference.

All told the cost of sitting on your hands doing nothing is 358,400 + 79,200 = 437,600 PER YEAR (and these are very reasonable guesses). And this also doesn't take into account that we are missing out on a chance to share at a minimum a $2 million per year pot with the other teams from the A10 who made the tournament this year. That number only goes up for each game won.

 

[Patriotfan49]

^Which is why I dont understand somebody like Jollay mocking any level of donor.

Its a slippery slope when you dont have the largest or strongest base to begin with (one that is more than likely shrinking already) and then you start losing donors each season, majority probably are smaller but some bigger as well. It all starts to add up and when you do nothing really to make an effort to retain them.....what do you expect? While smaller donors may not be high in the pecking order...when a good number of them start to dip out, it adds up fast.

 

[GMUgemini]

^Which is why I dont understand somebody like Jollay mocking any level of donor.

Its a slippery slope when you dont have the largest or strongest base to begin with (one that is more than likely shrinking already) and then you start losing donors each season, majority probably are smaller but some bigger as well. It all starts to add up and when you do nothing really to make an effort to retain them.....what do you expect? While smaller donors may not be high in the pecking order...when a good number of them start to dip out, it adds up fast.

Yep. And I've decided to extrapolate out the NCAA payout as well. If every single teams from the A10 loses I'm the first round (this is not going to happen but I won't speculate who will win and how far they get my bracket has vcu and UMass in the sweet 16 and St. Louis and St. Joes winning their first round games so I'll do both).

With all teams losing each NCAA participant will get $185,250 pee year for the next 5 years so 926,250. The Non-participants get 52,928 for 5 so 264,642 a difference of 661,608.

In my scenario that figure goes WAY up.

NCAA participants get 370,500 or 1,852,500. Non participants get 105,857 or 529,285 a difference of 1,323,215.

What was Hewitt's buyout again?

 

[Five Two]

I would say shedding almost 2,000 fans per game from our high in 2006-2007 is pretty damning and I've made sure Cabrera knows we used to draw that. Even a few short years ago we were sitting at 5,800. Next year we will be lucky to crack 4,000 fans per game.

So let's do the math. We lose 100 donors and season ticket holders, let's say on average they donate $400 a year to the program. That's 40,000. And let's say they average two tickets per fan. That's 200 tickets at 196 or an additional 39,200.

Ok so losing 79,200 may not seem like a lot per year. We can absorb that, right? But we aren't done. Our last great season we averaged 5,800 (a reasonable estimate of what our attendance would be if we were successful) fans per game and we are probably looking at maybe 4000 per game (if we are lucky) so we are losing out on an additional 1,600 fans per game for 14 or so games a year. Single tickets are $16 so that's 1,600 x 14 x 16 = $358,400. So now we are talking about some serious cash for a basketball only conference.

All told the cost of sitting on your hands doing nothing is 358,400 + 79,200 = 437,600 PER YEAR (and these are very reasonable guesses). And this also doesn't take into account that we are missing out on a chance to share at a minimum a $2 million per year pot with the other teams from the A10 who made the tournament this year. That number only goes up for each game won.

I follow your logic, but don't forget student attendance. There certainly has been a drop in student attendance, but since they don't pay for tickets, there is no loss in ticket revenue. So, I'd say its going to be less than $358,400.

However, I've always said that student attendance is our most important segment of the fan base. They are future season ticket holders. To that end, I'd make the case that while one year's ticket revenue loss is less than the $358,400, the drop in student attendance costs the university even more than that in the long term. I'm sure smarter people than me can come up with formulas to quantify it.

 

[psyclone]

I would say shedding almost 2,000 fans per game from our high in 2006-2007 is pretty damning and I've made sure Cabrera knows we used to draw that. Even a few short years ago we were sitting at 5,800. Next year we will be lucky to crack 4,000 fans per game.

So let's do the math. We lose 100 donors and season ticket holders, let's say on average they donate $400 a year to the program. That's 40,000. And let's say they average two tickets per fan. That's 200 tickets at 196 or an additional 39,200.

Ok so losing 79,200 may not seem like a lot per year. We can absorb that, right? But we aren't done. Our last great season we averaged 5,800 (a reasonable estimate of what our attendance would be if we were successful) fans per game and we are probably looking at maybe 4000 per game (if we are lucky) so we are losing out on an additional 1,600 fans per game for 14 or so games a year. Single tickets are $16 so that's 1,600 x 14 x 16 = $358,400. So now we are talking about some serious cash for a basketball only conference.

All told the cost of sitting on your hands doing nothing is 358,400 + 79,200 = 437,600 PER YEAR (and these are very reasonable guesses). And this also doesn't take into account that we are missing out on a chance to share at a minimum a $2 million per year pot with the other teams from the A10 who made the tournament this year. That number only goes up for each game won.

I don't mean to quibble with your main point, which is reasonable, but I have a question. I've always assumed that published attendance numbers included students who come to games. Is that true? If so, when students don't come to games, there really is no lost income as they get in free (other than concessions which presumably goes to the contractor). Are there separate numbers publically available for paid tickets and students at games?

Obviously bad teams cost attendance in people dropping their season tickets and fewer casual fans buying individual game tickets.

 

[GMUgemini]

I don't mean to quibble with your main point, which is reasonable, but I have a question. I've always assumed that published attendance numbers included students who come to games. Is that true? If so, when students don't come to games, there really is no lost income as they get in free (other than concessions which presumably goes to the contractor). Are there separate numbers publically available for paid tickets and students at games?

Obviously bad teams cost attendance in people dropping their season tickets and fewer casual fans buying individual game tickets.

We'll keep in mind these are rough estimates and projections. I think our student attendance record was set at 2,061 agains vcu. So even it NO students attend that's still a net loss of 1,600 fans per game (season ticket plus single game).

 

[CHRISTOPHER JAMES JOLLAY]

Your donation is fine, P49, I just mock people that think their meager donation means the AD should suck their balls.

Once again, I am amazingly somehow a top 50 donor to the Pat Club and I give hardly anything.

I am not under any illusions where our program actually is. Ain't gonna be no practice facility, nor do I expect a page answer every time I write the AD.

 

[CHRISTOPHER JAMES JOLLAY]

As much as we'd all like TOC and/or Cabrera to make a public statement about the program moving forward — especially if Hewitt is retained — it's not like they are feeling pressured to do so. I'm of the opinion that it would be wise for them to be proactive, but only time will tell if they agree.

Well, at least not on the first working school day back after Brooklyn before noon.

Only if Hewitt were fired, and we know that ain't happening. As much as our massive donation base can just cover the cost.

 

[gmujim92]

Yep. And I've decided to extrapolate out the NCAA payout as well. If every single teams from the A10 loses I'm the first round (this is not going to happen but I won't speculate who will win and how far they get my bracket has vcu and UMass in the sweet 16 and St. Louis and St. Joes winning their first round games so I'll do both).

With all teams losing each NCAA participant will get $185,250 pee year for the next 5 years so 926,250. The Non-participants get 52,928 for 5 so 264,642 a difference of 661,608.

In my scenario that figure goes WAY up.

NCAA participants get 370,500 or 1,852,500. Non participants get 105,857 or 529,285 a difference of 1,323,215.

What was Hewitt's buyout again?

I have nothing to add to this post. Just thought it bore repeating.

So to summarize Gemini's 2 excellent posts, we are losing about $300K annually in ticket revenue/donations, and at least $600K over the next 5 years in NCAA tournament payouts.

Suddenly, it's looking A LOT more reasonable to get rid of Hewitt right now. Whatever dollars we save on his buyout are pretty much being cancelled out by money we're losing on the other end.

Somebody needs to get Gemini's numbers in front of Cabrera's eyes pronto. He's a business guy -- even if the numbers are only close to correct, it won't be a hard case to make.

 

[CHRISTOPHER JAMES JOLLAY]

So to summarize Gemini's 2 excellent posts, we are losing about $300K annually in ticket revenue/donations, and at least $600K over the next 5 years in NCAA tournament payouts.

Suddenly, it's looking A LOT more reasonable to get rid of Hewitt right now. Whatever dollars we save on his buyout are pretty much being cancelled out by money we're losing on the other end.

.

This logic would be sound if there were some kind of magical guarantee a new coach takes us to the NCAA Tournament. While I have no doubt we would have been better under L, not sure he takes this group sans Arledge either. In fact pretty sure he doesn't.

There certainly was not any guarantee with James Johnson, the choice of you and many in 2011.

Look, this is fun, but Hewitt is not going to be gone before year 4 barring some sort of misconduct in the program. Just not going to happen.

 

[CHRISTOPHER JAMES JOLLAY]

I will say that absolutely you people should write the AD and let your opinion be known as you are absolutely entitled to do.

But I mean Christ, what does your email look like after a long weekend on Tuesday? I mean, come on.

 

[Scythe]

Jollay being riled up is fun.

 

[gmujim92]

This logic would be sound if there were some kind of magical guarantee a new coach takes us to the NCAA Tournament. While I have no doubt we would have been better under L, not sure he takes this group sans Arledge either. In fact pretty sure he doesn't.

There certainly was not any guarantee with James Johnson, the choice of you and many in 2011.

Look, this is fun, but Hewitt is not going to be gone before year 4 barring some sort of misconduct in the program. Just not going to happen.

The point, since you seem determined to ignore it, is that there's a strong financial case to be made for changing course NOW instead of waiting for yet another lost season.

Even if you ignore the disparity the NCAA money, I'm not sure how a program of our stature can just willingly look down its nose at roughly $300K a year in lost ticket revenue and donations.

Oh, and by the way, look at the A-10 teams that made the tournament. What do most of them have in common? 5 of the 6 could've conceivably lost to us during the regular season.

We had UMass beat at home and choked, let SLU off the hook twice, and were right there with a chance in the final 5 minutes against SJU, GW and vcu.

Would a better coach than Bozo have won those games? No way to know for sure. But I'm pretty sure a better game manager would've managed to at least win 1 or 2.

I don't think it's out of the question that this team could've danced with somebody better than Bozo. I'm sure you disagree.

 

[Scythe]

The AD will know and be able to predict with decent accuracy the picture of the fanbase come seat reservation time. I have a feeling we'll lose a bunch of fans simply because we've lost so many home games this season, let alone the coaching. What I'm intrigued about is the direct impact that will have on sponsors/concessions/etc.

 

[GMUgemini]

The AD will know and be able to predict with decent accuracy the picture of the fanbase come seat reservation time. I have a feeling we'll lose a bunch of fans simply because we've lost so many home games this season, let alone the coaching. What I'm intrigued about is the direct impact that will have on sponsors/concessions/etc.

It's not going to be pretty. Combine the last two years' of performance on the home court and it looks like a horror film.

 

[Patriotfan49]

Your donation is fine, P49, I just mock people that think their meager donation means the AD should suck their balls.

Once again, I am amazingly somehow a top 50 donor to the Pat Club and I give hardly anything.

I am not under any illusions where our program actually is. Ain't gonna be no practice facility, nor do I expect a page answer every time I write the AD.

You are out of touch if you are implying me, or anybody else here assumes those things to be true. Because we have opinions, or even voice them does not mean we expect anything to happen in return or expect special attention. Nobody has even hinted at wanting this....just your sarcastic over reactive posts are the only things that mention that.

If I thought my donation really meant anything, I wouldnt waste time saying that I am by no means a big donor, nor does my opinion rank very high on the totem pole....even in the email I sent to TOC.