The Official Season Prediction Thread

[Falco]

Actually both Rpiforecast and kenpom have us projected as 9-9 in conference (underdogs to URI at home with LaSalle being a 50% chance game) and favored on the road only against St Louis. 9-9 has us finishing 7th in Kenpom and tied for 7th with Davidson in rpiforecast.

I'm agreeing with the spirit of your post--winning 10 is possible, but not easy; 11 would be a substantial stretch, unless we've really turned a corner.

Yeah You're right. It's certainly a lofty goal. But I'm still hopeful. I like our chances in every game. Not saying we will win them all, but we have a good chance every night to win

 

[Falco]

The path to 11 wins
GW-W
Umass- W
St. Louis- W
La Salle- W
Davidson- L
Fordham- W
Richmond- w
Rhode Island- L
Dayton-L (I like our chances to steal though)
GW- W
Duq- W
vcu- L (maybe a better first half and we could steal this one)

So yeah it's a tough road, but I think it's possible. I shouldn't have said at least 11 wins. I should have said our goal should be at least 11.

 

[MasonCrew]

That would be amazing, but I don't see it happening. I'm hoping SLU was an outlier, but I could see us laying another egg or two.

 

[GMUgemini]

That would be amazing, but I don't see it happening. I'm hoping SLU was an outlier, but I could see us laying another egg or two.

You can't assume anything in this league.

 

[GSII]

If we can rebound better vs vcu, we can beat them or anyone in this league. Problem is, they are way bigger in key positions.

 

[Washingtonian]

You can't assume anything in this league.

Got that right, didn't think vcu would blow out La Salle yesterday.

 

[Vurbel]

Generally, you must beat vcu to win a conference tournament.

I want to play vcu in the A10T. We have a .000 record against them in the postseason, so it can't get any lower!

 

[Vurbel]

Actually both Rpiforecast and kenpom have us projected as 9-9 in conference (underdogs to URI at home with LaSalle being a 50% chance game) and favored on the road only against St Louis. 9-9 has us finishing 7th in Kenpom and tied for 7th with Davidson in rpiforecast.

I'm agreeing with the spirit of your post--winning 10 is possible, but not easy; 11 would be a substantial stretch, unless we've really turned a corner.

You can't get everybody on here to agree today is Tuesday, but before the season, I think everybody here would love 9 wins in the A-10!

 

[masonjoe]

You can't get everybody on here to agree today is Tuesday, but before the season, I think everybody here would love 9 wins in the A-10!

half our season tickets our corporate buys where a couple blocks are purchased. it's hit or miss if those seats are filled based on who the company gives out tickets to each game. And they are almost always sold to opposing fans when we play teams like vcu, Dayton, or GW.

 

[Vurbel]

half our season tickets our corporate buys where a couple blocks are purchased. it's hit or miss if those seats are filled based on who the company gives out tickets to each game. And they are almost always sold to opposing fans when we play teams like vcu, Dayton, or GW.

Then we should protest in front of their business!

 

[GSII]

When sitting courtside, is it common at Patriot Center that wearing an opposing teams logo shirt or hat earns you a visit from the AD personnel asking you to remove said apparel and wear theirs?

 

[Bricker]

St Joes cruising at the half against the Bonnies. The A-10 is wiiiiiiiiiiide open folks. The difference between 4th and 11th might be just a couple of games when all is said and done... buckle up.

 

[psyclone]

Then we should protest in front of their business!

I'm sure you're kidding on this, but just to make sure:
A corporation buys a big block of tickets on an annual basis (and gets Green Room access) to spread among their employees and clients. Some of those employees/clients are alums of other schools (or have their kids in those schools) and put in for games when those teams are playing us. Viola--people in the Green Room/good seats wearing the shirts/colors of the opposition. You certainly don't want to complain to the corporation that you've gotten to fork over big money to Mason.

 

[psyclone]

St Joes cruising at the half against the Bonnies. The A-10 is wiiiiiiiiiiide open folks. The difference between 4th and 11th might be just a couple of games when all is said and done... buckle up.

Not to say that the A10 is "settled" by any means, but the Bonnies rallied in the second half and won by 4.

 

[Vurbel]

I'm sure you're kidding on this, but just to make sure:
A corporation buys a big block of tickets on an annual basis (and gets Green Room access) to spread among their employees and clients. Some of those employees/clients are alums of other schools (or have their kids in those schools) and put in for games when those teams are playing us. Viola--people in the Green Room/good seats wearing the shirts/colors of the opposition. You certainly don't want to complain to the corporation that you've gotten to fork over big money to Mason.

I'm not saying we should protest outside their business. My hatred for vcu is so great that I'd do pretty much anything.

 

[Bricker]

Not to say that the A10 is "settled" by any means, but the Bonnies rallied in the second half and won by 4.

Yep. Just saw that. Sorry, St Joes-- wasn't trying to jinx you

 

[GMUSig03]

Yep. Just saw that. Sorry, St Joes-- wasn't trying to jinx you

Well you did St. Joe's didn't score a fg the last 6:30 of the 2nd half and slowly lost the lead and the game. That would have been great for us for STB to have been upset at home.

 

[Bricker]

Well you did St. Joe's didn't score a fg the last 6:30 of the 2nd half and slowly lost the lead and the game. That would have been great for us for STB to have been upset at home.

Guilty.

 

[Patriotsince81]

I had us 7 - 6 OOC and 7 - 11 in the A10 for a total of 14 wins for the season. Well, the win today at UMass puts us at 14 wins. Hopefully we can pull out a few more and greatly surpass my preseason expectations. Well done Paulsen and team.

 

[patriotchild]

So my question is, do we get to 20 wins in the regular season (10-8 A-10)? It would be quite a feat for this team but I don't see how we go 6-4 down the stretch.

I can see us getting 4 more wins, but having a hard time seeing six (especially with our record a home and play against St. Louis).

"Likely" wins should be @ St. Louis, and then take Fordham, Richmond, and Duquesne at home

Which means we'd have to steal two road games or beat Lasalle and URI at home.

I'm not confident we win at home in any situation let alone against Lasalle and URI. GW is a matchup nightmare for us and I think we'll see much of the same in foggy bottom. So, does this team have the gusto to beat 2 of 3 on the road, Davidson (most plausible), Dayton, vcu (any win where is great for us)?

That said I see us going 4-6 in the last 10 and we finish with 18 wins on the year 8-10 in league play.

Disappointing? not really. This team played way above where I thought we'd be.

A win in the conference tournament would be icing.