The Official Season Prediction Thread

[GMUgemini]

Ah - I was. 5 seems high for the A10 Talk ranking. But I think we could end up there. A lot is still up in the air. Not out of the realm of possibility, but also not likely, imo.

But it was also a power ranking. And it's hard to argue that we aren't 5th right now with that context.

Yeah, power rankings are just a snapshot in time. Everyone should still be working off of the A-10 preseason coach's poll.

 

[Pablo]

http://www.a10talk.com/10-non-conference-grades-george-mason-patriots/:

"Non-Conference Grade: A-

You’ve got to give this team some credit. Not many people saw the Patriots going 10-3 in non-conference play, and even if they did, they certainly didn’t see them beating Northern Iowa and Penn State. A couple of early losses keep this team from getting an A, but this George Mason squad has more than exceeded expectations in late November and early December."

 

[Pablo]

Alan ‏@MasonFanatic 10h10 hours ago
KenPom is now projecting George Mason to win 20 games, I believe that's a new high for the season. Previously was bouncing between 18 & 19.

 

[GreenLantern]

Alan ‏@MasonFanatic 10h10 hours ago
KenPom is now projecting George Mason to win 20 games, I believe that's a new high for the season. Previously was bouncing between 18 & 19.

If that happens, it would way exceed what I thought this season was going to be like.

 

[Washingtonian]

If that happens, it would way exceed what I thought this season was going to be like.

But you are not getting your OT games!

 

[GreenLantern]

Meh, OT games are gravy compared to 20 wins! I'll suffer no OT games if we can reach that goal!

 

[gmujim92]

We're actually one game better than I predicted we'd be at this point, which is pretty remarkable.

If we can take care of the games in which we're favored and steal one game as an underdog, we'll have 20 wins during the regular season, 10 wins in conference and avoid the play-in games for the first time as an A-10 member.

Regardless of what happens after that, this season would have to be considered wildly successful by anyone's standard.

First let's go crush SLU and start a new winning streak.

 

[tblack33]

We surprise a few teams, but realistically we are still a year out from making some serious noise. Make it out of the first round of the A10 for the first time ever, just to get nuked from orbit by Dayton. At least two transfers after this year as well, backcourt is too crowded. I expect there will be a couple surprises by the time conference play starts, to include Boyd becoming a starter.

Towson -- L
Lebanon Valley -- W
Mt. St. Mary's -- W
Houston (Gulf Coast Showcase) -- L
Kent St./S. Dakota (Gulf Coast Showcase) -- W
TBD (Gulf Coast Showcase) -- L
James Madison -- W
at Northern Iowa -- L
Mercer -- W
at Penn State -- L
at Penn -- W
Longwood -- W
Prairie View A&M -- W

vcu -- L
UMass --L
at St Bona -- L
at Saint Joe's -- L
Saint Louis -- W
at Richmond -- L
GW -- W
at UMass -- L
at Saint Louis -- W
LaSalle -- L
at Davidson -- L
Fordham -- W
Richmond -- W
Rhode Island -- L
at Dayton -- L
at GW -- L
Duquesne -- W
at vcu -- L

At the half way point I haven't been too terribly far off, a few nice surprises in there. Think we probably steal a couple more I didnt expect at the beginning of the season and finish right around 20 wins for the year.

 

[gmutom]

First let's go crush SLU and start a new winning streak.

Jim, I'm pretty sure you mean let's build upon the new winning streak we started with the St. Joe's game. Woohoo!

 

[gmujim92]

Jim, I'm pretty sure you mean let's build upon the new winning streak we started with the St. Joe's game. Woohoo!

I thought it was only during the Hewitt years that we had to consider one win a "streak."

 

[Washingtonian]

We're actually one game better than I predicted we'd be at this point, which is pretty remarkable.

If we can take care of the games in which we're favored and steal one game as an underdog, we'll have 20 wins during the regular season, 10 wins in conference and avoid the play-in games for the first time as an A-10 member.

Regardless of what happens after that, this season would have to be considered wildly successful by anyone's standard.

First let's go crush SLU and start a new winning streak.

One of the assistant coaches in the Gold Room at the UMass game said the resolution this season was to not lose a game in EagleBank Arena.

 

[Patriotsince81]

One of the assistant coaches in the Gold Room at the UMass game said the resolution this season was to not lose a game in EagleBank Arena.

Love hearing that. Win at home, go .500 on the road and you're at the top of the league.

 

[Falco]

Love hearing that. Win at home, go .500 on the road and you're at the top of the league.

I think freshman actually tend to play better on the road. Idk why, but it's just been my general observation over the years.

My guess is freshman try to do to much to impress the home crowd.

Obviously I have no statistics to back this up. But it's kinda like going on vacation, you have to get away to fully relax and not feel the pressure.

 

[Patriotsince81]

Now 6 - 4 at home on the year.

 

[Falco]

I predict at least 11 a10 wins.

Looking at the schedule I see the potentional for at least 11 wins, and possibly 12 or more if we can upset Dayton. I think that's totally possible because Umass beat Dayton, and Umass plays a very similar style of ball as Mason.

I believe that's as many wins as GW last year and you know what they did.

 

[GMUSig03]

Each of the last 3 years the 6th seed has had 10 wins and 7 wins gets you out of play in game, so that will be a nice bench mark to hit. With the logjam in the middle of the pack, I really don't know if there is much of a difference between the 5th through 10th seeds.

My goal is to get the 6th seed which gives us a 1st round bye, matchup vs 11/14 seed and then the late 8:30pm game on Friday vs #3 seed. Selfishly, I want us to play late on Friday so that I have a chance to make the game (6pm game is #2 vs 7/10 seed).

Sitting at 3-3 and currently in 7th place, we have 6 home games left, which we will likely be favored in 5 of (guessing URI is one we won't). With how we've played at home, we'll probably lose another, maybe LaSalle. So if we win 4 out of the 6 at home and steal 2 on the road (payback @ SLU and vcu?) we'll be in great shape to make it to the 10 win mark.

I can see us hovering around .500 in the conference and eventually passing Richmond, while Dayton take #1, vcu, URI, LaSalle and SBU battle for 2-5. I think URI is 2nd best team and vcu is probably 3rd, but won't necessarily shake out like that in the standings. Hopefully URI and vcu slip to 4th and 5th seed and both get put in top of bracket with Dayton.

 

[Pablo]

Hopefully URI and vcu slip to 4th and 5th seed and both get put in top of bracket with Dayton.

Generally, you must beat vcu to win a conference tournament.

 

[Falco]

I don't know where else to put this. Some of the early losses don't look as bad any more.

Towson- 11-9 overall. Won the past 4 games.
Mount St. Mary's- Had a rough start but are 7-1 in conference play. 5 game winning streak.

And Penn States win looks pretty good. PSU beat Michigan St, and Minnesota.

 

[GMUgemini]

I predict at least 11 a10 wins.

Looking at the schedule I see the potentional for at least 11 wins, and possibly 12 or more if we can upset Dayton. I think that's totally possible because Umass beat Dayton, and Umass plays a very similar style of ball as Mason.

I believe that's as many wins as GW last year and you know what they did.

We'll have to play near-perfect basketball to win 8 of the next 12. Right now, projections have us at 10-8 winning all of our remaining home games plus beating St. Louis on the road. So, to get to 11, we'll have to win all of the games we are currently projected to be favored (which includes beating La Salle, GW, and URI at home), plus one of the following road games: UMass, Davidson, Dayton, George Washington, or vcu. If we lose to La Salle, GW, or URI at home (Or St. Louis on the road), that makes it even more difficult.

I am hopeful we can be around somewhere 8-10 to 10-8 (with the right breaks on the schedule), but to think 11 wins or better at this point?

 

[psyclone]

We'll have to play near-perfect basketball to win 8 of the next 12. Right now, projections have us at 10-8 winning all of our remaining home games plus beating St. Louis on the road. So, to get to 11, we'll have to win all of the games we are currently projected to be favored (which includes beating La Salle, GW, and URI at home), plus one of the following road games: UMass, Davidson, Dayton, George Washington, or vcu. If we lose to La Salle, GW, or URI at home (Or St. Louis on the road), that makes it even more difficult.

I am hopeful we can be around somewhere 8-10 to 10-8 (with the right breaks on the schedule), but to think 11 wins or better at this point?

Actually both Rpiforecast and kenpom have us projected as 9-9 in conference (underdogs to URI at home with LaSalle being a 50% chance game) and favored on the road only against St Louis. 9-9 has us finishing 7th in Kenpom and tied for 7th with Davidson in rpiforecast.

I'm agreeing with the spirit of your post--winning 10 is possible, but not easy; 11 would be a substantial stretch, unless we've really turned a corner.