Game 30: AT Virginia Commonwealth University, Wednesday, February 28th, 7 PM, MASN

[smccart5]

My hope is that Reuter is playing Calixte extra tough in practice this week to get him ready for this game. If he can get 6+ points and 10+ boards, then we have a shot.

 

[GMUSig03]

Calixte has had double digit rebounds only once this year, so wouldn't hold my breath on that stat line.

From what I remember of our last game - we got killed on the boards, couldn't buy a 3 and some nobody named Lane went off for 20+.

I'll say this likely comes down to our rebounding +- (gonna take a team effort, at least 5 guys with 5+ abs) and 3 pt %.

 

[GSII]

We will rebound better. It's about stopping hothead mophead tillman.

 

[Mason2005]

Game day!!

Sent from my XT1575 using Tapatalk

 

[Washingtonian]

+275 ML, 7.5 point underdog and 149.5 over/under.

 

[MasonCrew]

LETSSSSSS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[Petey Buckets]

Our defense has been much better since the first time we played vcu. We allowed an offensive rating of 112 to them. We haven't allowed an O rating over 102 in the last seven games:

http://giantkiller.co/2018/02/26/2366/

In the first nine games of conference play, Mason held only one opponent (at UMass) under an offensive rating of 100. The second best defensive performance of that stretch was allowing an O rating of 108 in the double overtime loss to Duquesne. Mason had a defensive rating of 112 or worse in the other seven games to open conference play, going 3-6.

Things turned around after St. Bonaventure lit Eagle Bank Arena on fire with an offensive rating of 119.7. In the six games after, Mason had a defensive rating under 100, with St. Joe’s 98.7 the highest and Dayton’s 90.5 the lowest. Mason had a defensive rating of 102.7 in Saturday’s game against UMass, which was the worst since that Bonaventure game. That’s a tremendous turnaround and a big part of the reason Mason is 5-2 in the last 7.

 

[psyclone]

Petey,

That analysis does offer hope, although I think some of the "improvement" may be because we played the top 3 offensive teams (Davidson, St. B, URI) early in the season. The more recent games we generally were playing teams with lower overall offensive efficiency.

Our defense has been much better since the first time we played vcu. We allowed an offensive rating of 112 to them. We haven't allowed an O rating over 102 in the last seven games:

http://giantkiller.co/2018/02/26/2366/

In the first nine games of conference play, Mason held only one opponent (at UMass) under an offensive rating of 100. The second best defensive performance of that stretch was allowing an O rating of 108 in the double overtime loss to Duquesne. Mason had a defensive rating of 112 or worse in the other seven games to open conference play, going 3-6.

Things turned around after St. Bonaventure lit Eagle Bank Arena on fire with an offensive rating of 119.7. In the six games after, Mason had a defensive rating under 100, with St. Joe’s 98.7 the highest and Dayton’s 90.5 the lowest. Mason had a defensive rating of 102.7 in Saturday’s game against UMass, which was the worst since that Bonaventure game. That’s a tremendous turnaround and a big part of the reason Mason is 5-2 in the last 7.

 

[Petey Buckets]

Petey,

That analysis does offer hope, although I think some of the "improvement" may be because we played the top 3 offensive teams (Davidson, St. B, URI) early in the season. The more recent games we generally were playing teams with lower overall offensive efficiency.

Certainly, but that's why I used game level, not average of the O ratings. Only one of our first nine conference opponents was under 108 for O rating. That includes St. Louis posting a 117.4, GW posting a 119.4, Duquesne posting a 108, and St. Joe's posting a 111.3. Those are all bottom half A10 offenses, per kenpom.

In the more recent stretch we've held good offenses in Dayton to a 90.5 and La Salle to a 97.2, in addition to limiting the poorer offenses. Something's definitely changed for the better.

None of this matters if we can't keep Tillman and Lane out of the paint, but vcu is vulnerable right now and our defense is improving, even if it doesn't always feel like it. Would love to steal the 4 seed from these cretins.

 

[GMU_DCU]

Do we have any answer for them pounding the paint like they did to us last time? If not this will be a long night.

 

[psyclone]

Certainly, but that's why I used game level, not average of the O ratings. Only one of our first nine conference opponents was under 108 for O rating. That includes St. Louis posting a 117.4, GW posting a 119.4, Duquesne posting a 108, and St. Joe's posting a 111.3. Those are all bottom half A10 offenses, per kenpom.

In the more recent stretch we've held good offenses in Dayton to a 90.5 and La Salle to a 97.2, in addition to limiting the poorer offenses. Something's definitely changed for the better.

None of this matters if we can't keep Tillman and Lane out of the paint, but vcu is vulnerable right now and our defense is improving, even if it doesn't always feel like it. Would love to steal the 4 seed from these cretins.

Thanks! We can always count on you for a thorough analysis!

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

Certainly, but that's why I used game level, not average of the O ratings. Only one of our first nine conference opponents was under 108 for O rating. That includes St. Louis posting a 117.4, GW posting a 119.4, Duquesne posting a 108, and St. Joe's posting a 111.3. Those are all bottom half A10 offenses, per kenpom.

I have no idea what any of this means and that is exactly the way I want my sports metric analysis to be!

 

[GMUSig03]

I have no idea what any of this means and that is exactly the way I want my sports metric analysis to be!

First nine conference games we allowed otherwise poor offenses to have good/above their average offensive performances against us. We have improved in this regard since the vcu game.

Or - our defense has improved.

Did I get it right Pete?

 

[mkaufman1]

Great analysis Petey.

I'm hoping that with the defense improvement, and hopefully an adjustment to avoid Lane and Tillman abusing Mason up front and on the glass, they'll be able to sneak out of Richmond tonight with a win. I'd be shocked if that happened, but if its any year to do it, its this one and would be a really good confidence booster for just about anyone involved with the program. They finally got a win against GW, so having a win against vcu would be great too.

 

[Petey Buckets]

First nine conference games we allowed otherwise poor offenses to have good/above their average offensive performances against us. We have improved in this regard since the vcu game.

Or - our defense has improved.

Did I get it right Pete?

Ha, I know I'm too jargony sometimes. I'm working on it. But yes, this is correct. Offensive rating is just points per possession * 100, and defensive rating is just your opponent's offensive rating. Since Mason gave up an offensive rating of 112 to vcu the first time around, Mason's defensive rating was 112 for that game. Lower is better for defensive rating.

Tillman had 18 points and 11 rebounds in the first game but had to take 14 shots to get there. I remember thinking Greg did a good job being physical with him and making him uncomfortable-ish in the post. The problem, as I recall, is that no one who mans the 4 for us is going to be able to keep Khris Lane out of the paint. He went for 25 + 12 on 11-13 shooting. The rest of vcu's team outside of those two actually played poorly, shooting 10-49.

Wouldn't expect we get that lucky again, but vcu has been an unexpectedly shitty shooting team in conference, hitting only 32.3% from 3. Guessing the strategy tonight is to double hard in the post, pack the paint, and make vcu shoot. They might catch fire at home but it's our best chance to stop any lineup vcu puts out there that has both Tillman and Lane in it.

 

[GMUSig03]

We also shot 4-20 from 3 as a team the first time around - gotta believe we can do better than that this time.

Will be interesting to see if they start Lane. Fingers crossed we can get Tillman in early foul trouble to limit their ability to put both on the Court.

 

[Falco]

Maybe Tillman gets the flu.
But if Tillman has to play I would be interested in seeing Calixte playing man on Tillman. And AJ playing help side D.

I know this isn't DP's style, so don't go all crazy on me

 

[mkaufman1]

We also shot 4-20 from 3 as a team the first time around - gotta believe we can do better than that this time.

Will be interesting to see if they start Lane. Fingers crossed we can get Tillman in early foul trouble to limit their ability to put both on the Court.

Foul trouble and some combination of doubling the post/daring them to shoot and trying to push Tillman out when he catches the ball on his posts up like last time I suspect will be involved this go round.

 

[allhailme]

Our defense has been much better since the first time we played vcu. We allowed an offensive rating of 112 to them. We haven't allowed an O rating over 102 in the last seven games

Has anyone else noticed that were not running as much of the Pack Line as we did before? A staple is doubling the post no matter what and rotating backside, but I can’t remember the last time I saw that. I have also noticed a lot more of hedging-and-recover on balls screens involving our bigs. I think this has been a good adjustment from Paulsen during the season.

 

[mkaufman1]

Has anyone else noticed that were not running as much of the Pack Line as we did before? A staple is doubling the post no matter what and rotating backside, but I can’t remember the last time I saw that. I have also noticed a lot more of hedging-and-recover on balls screens involving our bigs. I think this has been a good adjustment from Paulsen during the season.

Ive noticed that too, the hedging and recover off screens a lot. Calixte has been doing that a lot more and then getting back to defend the post. I think that was more common with Umass than St Joes, since St Joes played more of a 5 out most of the time, but someone can correct me if I am wrong. It just seems like in general that Mason gets up big playing good d, the other team throws some adjustment in the second half and Mason can't figure it out on either side.