Given that scenario we'd probably finish 6th or 7th at best. Not trying to be Debbie Downer but we were picked 9th this year with Kier, Boyd, AJ, and the crew.
That's hard to say but you're probably right. But I do want to address the "picked 9th" comment because we've heard that kind of thing a lot. This is not specifically an argument with you, in fact I know you agree with most or all of what I'm about to say. You just brought up something I've thought about.
DP supporters early on pointed to how he kept exceeding expectations, but those expectations were set by pollsters who don't respect our program. Private comments have been made about us not belonging in the league and completely botching the post-final-four opportunity. Those same people who make those comments vote us low, one or two players exceed expectations, and the program finishes a little higher. Did we exceed expectations because the coaches did a good job, or just because the bar was set too low? The first time we finished lower than projected was last year, right? Not a coincidence that it's the one year the pollsters actually gave us some respect. As you could see from this year's polls, they're not making that mistake again.
This year 9th looked like an insult and then we were even worse. But I'd like to believe our fully healthy roster (which pollsters were assuming when they made their predictions) would have actually finished higher than 9th. I don't want to rehash an argument we've already had, and that we can never prove: I know some of you feel we'd still be between 9th and 12th with those guys. If you feel that way, you're guessing. I respect your guess. But you can't prove it because we can't replay the season with Kier and Boyd.
My guess is that, all other things being equal, our healthy roster finishes either 7th or 8th this year. Right above or right below Davidson. I can't prove it either. But of my guess were right, we exceeded expectations but still suck. Supporters of the coach point to us exceeding expectations yet again. Critics still have plenty to criticize. Round and round we go.
There's no real point to all of this, except let's stop even talking about where we were "picked." It just makes everything even more confusing and/or depressing.