A10 Season Preview

[gmujim92]

Barring a total collapse, I believe that Coach Paulsen has a get out of jail free card this season.

His situation has nothing to do with this season. They’re gonna have to extend him by at least 2 more years to have any shot at recruiting the 22 class, and that’s the problem — has anyone seen anything from him that suggests he deserves an extension?

 

[gmujim92]

In other words, we are stuck with him. Yay.

 

[sleeperpick]

His situation has nothing to do with this season. They’re gonna have to extend him by at least 2 more years to have any shot at recruiting the 22 class, and that’s the problem — has anyone seen anything from him that suggests he deserves an extension?

YUP... people worry about firing him now and losing these mystical great recruits that frankly don't exist.... the main problem is if we keep him next year his recruiting class next year will most likely be even worse than this current years class.. This is the year Brad needs to make a decision... cut ties or give 2+ years extension.... which worries me a ton

 

[gmujim92]

YUP... people worry about firing him now and losing these mystical great recruits that frankly don't exist.... the main problem is if we keep him next year his recruiting class next year will most likely be even worse than this current years class.. This is the year Brad needs to make a decision... cut ties or give 2+ years extension.... which worries me a ton

Short of an NCAA bid that isn’t coming this season, I see no way to justify an extension.

We can get out from under the last year of his deal for $200,000. Unless things improve dramatically between now and March, Edwards should absolutely go in that direction.

 

[gmubrian]

Short of an NCAA bid that isn’t coming this season, I see no way to justify an extension.

We can get out from under the last year of his deal for $200,000. Unless things improve dramatically between now and March, Edwards should absolutely go in that direction.

In the current financial environment for athletics, I find it hard to believe Brad would fire him and pay the $200k buy out. UNLESS, he can show a very obvious and quick payback. Something like saying he will pay the next person only $400k for the first two years, saving $200k overall, by going with a youngster with upside.

I am not arguing to keep Paulsen or that the above is the right way to do it, I just think that is the reality of the situation as I see it.

 

[mkaufman1]

In the current financial environment for athletics, I find it hard to believe Brad would fire him and pay the $200k buy out. UNLESS, he can show a very obvious and quick payback. Something like saying he will pay the next person only $400k for the first two years, saving $200k overall, by going with a youngster with upside.

I am not arguing to keep Paulsen or that the above is the right way to do it, I just think that is the reality of the situation as I see it.

Its a valid point. I am sure you can always construct the next contract a certain way.

That said, also keep in mind Paulsen hasn't hit a lot of incentives built into the contract. 200k is also chump change. A buy game could essentially pay that.

Its all a wait and see. We just have to hope theres no mediocrity that buys more time. Either suck or be good.

 

[GMUgemini]

In the current financial environment for athletics, I find it hard to believe Brad would fire him and pay the $200k buy out. UNLESS, he can show a very obvious and quick payback. Something like saying he will pay the next person only $400k for the first two years, saving $200k overall, by going with a youngster with upside.

I am not arguing to keep Paulsen or that the above is the right way to do it, I just think that is the reality of the situation as I see it.

Thats what I would do, which would mean hiring an assistant coach rather than trying to poach a head coach from a smaller school. Archie Miller was making something like 400k at Dayton until he made his run and then they drastically increased his pay.

Also, this school makes a paltry sum from gate revenue, so they can’t use that as an excuse that their finances are messed up due to COVID. Donations have already taken a nosedive the last two years.

The sell would be hiring someone like Tony Skinn would reinvigorate interest in men’s basketball post-pandemic and we’d probably see an increase in donations and fan attendance for at least the first two years and then it would be based on his success or not after that.

 

[gmubrian]

...
Also, this school makes a paltry sum from gate revenue, so they can’t use that as an excuse that their finances are messed up due to COVID. Donations have already taken a nosedive the last two years.
...

Is this the whole picture? I would think that seat donations and revenue from season ticket holders is significant. Some rough math: 2k season ticket holders x $10/ticket x 10 games would equal $200k (pretty magical number). Add in seat donations and I would think that goes up another several hundred $K.

But you are right in that he can't use the argument that we will make the money back on revenue since that is such a tough situation to predict at present.

 

[gmujim92]

Its a valid point. I am sure you can always construct the next contract a certain way.

That said, also keep in mind Paulsen hasn't hit a lot of incentives built into the contract. 200k is also chump change. A buy game could essentially pay that.

Its all a wait and see. We just have to hope theres no mediocrity that buys more time. Either suck or be good.

COVID or not, a university the size of Mason cannot with a straight face say they can’t afford to buy out the coach of our lone revenue-generating program for $200,000.

I’m sure Brad doesn’t want to fire Dave. I don’t want him to be fired either. I want him to start winning and make the tournament so we have to pay more to keep him. But after 5 years of mostly meh, being a nice guy who runs a super clean program isn’t enough.

 

[Five Two]

That said, also keep in mind Paulsen hasn't hit a lot of incentives built into the contract. 200k is also chump change. A buy game could essentially pay that.

While I do believe $200k is chump change for a large university, buy games are usually in the $70k range, so we'd need a few of those. But I get your point.....

 

[GMUgemini]

Is this the whole picture? I would think that seat donations and revenue from season ticket holders is significant. Some rough math: 2k season ticket holders x $10/ticket x 10 games would equal $200k (pretty magical number). Add in seat donations and I would think that goes up another several hundred $K.

But you are right in that he can't use the argument that we will make the money back on revenue since that is such a tough situation to predict at present.

Do we have 2,000 season ticket holder at this point? Given how low our announced attendance has been for some games (as low as 2,400 last year against LIU, and I know that’s tickets distributed not tickets scanned), I’d be skeptical we have that many.

 

[GSII]

I wonder how many buy games are currently part of the "budget"?

I think I see only one or two. TCU, Kstate, Maryland come to mind. I could totally see Tony Skinn wanting to play P5 schools during non conference. Yea we will lose, but atleast it shows we aren't afraid to play anybody anywhere. If we keep that up, like Bobby Bowden did at FSU for football and Mark Few has done at Gonzaga, we can build a real program. And make alot of money doing it with buy games in first few years. We just need an AD and Coach that share a vision of building a Gonzaga of the East. It's mind blowing that Brad and DP don't share this. We have the 'clean program' down. Just need the recruits and coaching style. Assuming Gonzaga is clean of coarse. IF they aren't then so what, just f**king cheat.

 

[GMUgemini]

While I do believe $200k is chump change for a large university, buy games are usually in the $70k range, so we'd need a few of those. But I get your point.....

I wouldn’t mind Tony Skinn taking two or three buy games in his first year.

 

[GMUgemini]

I wonder how many buy games are currently part of the "budget"?

I think I see only one or two. TCU, Kstate, Maryland come to mind. I could totally see Tony Skinn wanting to play P5 schools during non conference. Yea we will lose, but atleast it shows we aren't afraid to play anybody anywhere. If we keep that up, like Bobby Bowden did at FSU for football and Mark Few has done at Gonzaga, we can build a real program. And make alot of money doing it with buy games if first few years.

We played Louisville and Auburn too. UMD x2 although the second one was cancelled. So looks like one to two a year.

 

[Pablo]

Do we have 2,000 season ticket holder at this point? Given how low our announced attendance has been for some games (as low as 2,400 last year against LIU, and I know that’s tickets distributed not tickets scanned), I’d be skeptical we have that many.

I would guess there were approximately 1,500 season tickets sold last season.

 

[tblack33]

I would guess there were approximately 1,500 season tickets sold last season.

Far less judging by how high I was on the priority points list. It’s def under 1k. Probably in the 750 range if we’re being honest.

 

[mkaufman1]

While I do believe $200k is chump change for a large university, buy games are usually in the $70k range, so we'd need a few of those. But I get your point.....

I actually thought buy game checks were larger but appreciate the clarification on that.

 

[gmujim92]

It would be the ultimate “penny-wise, pound-foolish” move to keep a mediocre coach because of the sums of money we are discussing.

If Edwards and Washington genuinely believe Dave is the guy and want to give him 2 more years to get it done, I would disagree. But this decision cannot be about money. It just can’t.

 

[tblack33]

It would be the ultimate “penny-wise, pound-foolish” move to keep a mediocre coach because of the sums of money we are discussing.

If Edwards and Washington genuinely believe Dave is the guy and want to give him 2 more years to get it done, I would disagree. But this decision cannot be about money. It just can’t.

Sunk cost fallacy. I hope someone up at the AD is doing cost benefit analysis on how much more well bleed in donations if we keep him after another meh season. I know me and many others in my section are in the boat of success, new coach, or we aren’t renewing. Individually it’s not a lot but collectively it’s a big chunk of change they’ll lose, and I’m sure we aren’t the only ones.

 

[JimP]

Far less judging by how high I was on the priority points list. It’s def under 1k. Probably in the 750 range if we’re being honest.

Yeah - I know a guy who has been a season ticket holder for 5 years or so. I was surprised when he told me he was in the top 400 as far as priority points. Kinda depressing.