A10 Season Preview

[tblack33]

The only metric that matters is wins and losses and by that measure we are squarely in the middle during DP’s tenure. Everything else is message board fodder.

Lol well by that measure then Paulsens most successful years were teams that were led by our last coaches players.

 

[sleeperpick]

Wouldn't the ultimate metrics be win-loss record?

We have a lot of new coaches in the bottom of the A-10, so it's hard to say what the future is going to look like, but we've in the middle of the pack win-loss wise when you add up the last 4 seasons.

would disagree using that... and we are 8th during Dp's tenure in the conference... not good

 

[GMUgemini]

would disagree using that... and we are 8th during Dp's tenure in the conference... not good

8th is not good, but it is middle of the pack. I’d say it’s a hard thing to quantify. Was Otis underrecruited or did he develop here? Was Miller underrated because he went to Loudoun?

Also, Paulsen’s best season was with a combination of two holdovers and his players. Otis, Grayer, Kier and Boyd all started or played huge amounts of minutes that season.

If Calixte and Mar had planned out/developed more, I don’t think we are quite so down on our players as we are right now. Hartwell is another guy who was pretty highly rated but didn’t burn up the offer sheet and had a disappointing sophomore season and now people don’t think he can play at the A10 level because of his size (which is just silly when you look at some of the other preseason first team players likely at his position).

 

[gmujim92]

would disagree using that... and we are 8th during Dp's tenure in the conference... not good

8th out of 14 teams is not bottom of the barrel.

 

[sleeperpick]

8th is not good, but it is middle of the pack. I’d say it’s a hard thing to quantify. Was Otis underrecruited or did he develop here? Was Miller underrated because he went to Loudoun?

Also, Paulsen’s best season was with a combination of two holdovers and his players. Otis, Grayer, Kier and Boyd all started or played huge amounts of minutes that season.

If Calixte and Mar had planned out/developed more, I don’t think we are quite so down on our players as we are right now. Hartwell is another guy who was pretty highly rated but didn’t burn up the offer sheet and had a disappointing sophomore season and now people don’t think he can play at the A10 level because of his size (which is just silly when you look at some of the other preseason first team players likely at his position).

LOL two hold overs were our best players by a country mile. you guys are insane

 

[Pablo]

https://www.a10talk.com/gonzaga-of-...is-building-a-mid-major-powerhouse-at-dayton/:

"Next, let’s look at the fan support and exposure. Gonzaga doesn’t have to compete with too many big time programs out west besides UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona, to name a few. They are the premium program that fans want to watch. Dayton has the Big Ten and ACC to compete against. That doesn’t mean Dayton can’t get the same exposure that Gonzaga does. It helps that UD Arena is one of the best home courts in college hoops with a top 25 attendance mark every year, not to mention that UD Arena hosts the First Four every year and has hosted the most NCAA tournament games over any other arena in sports. It helps that Flyer nation is one of the best traveled fans in the country, as evidenced by the in-season tournaments where Flyer fans flock a plethora of seats to watch their beloved team. That only adds to the exposure of the school and the program to recruits, fans, "and media.

Next, Gonzaga is winning the WCC every year and making the NCAA tournament frequently with a 1-4 seeding in the process. Dayton did make the tournament 4 years in a row under Miller, with two 11 seeds and two 7 seeds, but Grant showed this season what Dayton could really do with a potential 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Along with that, under the combined efforts of Miller and Grant, Dayton has won 3 of the past 5 A10 regular season titles. With the way Dayton won the A10 this past season, you can expect the Flyers to be in the hunt to win the A10 every year along with perennial NCAA tournament bids.

With recruiting, this is where Grant is the most like Mark Few. We saw what he did with Obi Toppin in two years, who was only a 1 star player out of high school. Jalen Crutcher was a 3 star recruit out of high school, who has his sights at a first round NBA draft selection after next season. Even Ibi Watson, who came over as a transfer, looks to be a NBA draft pick as well. Grant has also started to recruit beyond the 3 star and below, and has proven to get commitments from highly rated guys such as Dwayne Cohill and now DeRon Holmes, who were both 4 star recruits out of high school. Holmes’ recent commitment is a Top-50 prospect who is now Dayton’s highest rated recruit in program history. Not to mention, Malachi Smith being the younger brother of former Flyer stud Scoochie Smith bodes well to the potential this program has over the next 4 years. You think about these guys, and the potential that his current recruits have, and you have a program that is itching to have perennial draft picks for years to come.

Now, back to the initial point, is Dayton the Gonzaga of the East? Not yet, but it looks like Grant is leading the Flyers into that direction. Both programs are poised to dominate their respective conferences for years to come. Both are recruiting against the big boys and are winning those commitment battles. Both are playing in mid-season tournaments with the big programs and are beating those teams. Both look to have NCAA tournament bids for the foreseeable future.

Dayton is clearly not a mid-major program anymore. They are playing, recruiting, and growing at a high level. Because of this, Dayton is going in the right direction to where Gonzaga is now, a small school turned into a national college basketball powerhouse."

 

[GMUgemini]

LOL two hold overs were our best players by a country mile. you guys are insane

Marquise was insane, but Otis has 14.3 ppg and 3.0 apg his sophomore season, Grayer had 11.4ppg and 5.4 rpg and shot over 38% from 3. And we don’t win 20 games without them.

Even funnier: Otis, Grayer, and Marquise are all crap recruits according to your metrics.

 

[sleeperpick]

Marquise was insane, but Otis has 14.3 ppg and 3.0 apt his sophomore season, Grayer has 11.4ppg and 5.4 rpg and shot over 38% from 3. And we don’t win 20 games without them.

Even funnier: Otis, Grayer, and Marquise are all crap recruits according to your metrics.

Super funny omg what success we have had with all three of them

 

[GMUgemini]

Super funny omg what success we have had with all three of them

Do you think that’s on Otis, Grayer, Kier, or Marquise?

 

[sleeperpick]

Do you think that’s on Otis, Grayer, Kier, or Marquise?

Big grayer guy but he was really not that good. Looked good when we had him on a team full of D2 players though

 

[mkaufman1]

Good to see we are debating recruiting again haha.

if we look at verbal commits in terms of ratings of recruits (best source available and for sake of comparison I’ll use it), mason is ranked 13 out of 14 with average stars only above Duquesne. I feel like Duquesne has done better but I’m just going off what I see. Could also be that some recruits just don’t show up on VC or 1000 variables.

obviously recruiting rankings have lots of subjectivity, but as I’ve always said, my concern is that the norm is to have schools get BCS level players who consider the A10, and have several of those and a school like Mason has kids where the A10 is only their top offer. Is that because they went unnoticed or are they not that good? I’m not sure. I’m not saying kids can’t develop or improve or anything. I also don’t want to win recruiting rankings, I want wins on the court.

its a hard place to be. Mason has never recruited to a BCS level, and I don’t expect them to. But, my expectations are that they should be able to get someone from that level once in a while especially with the improvements they’ve made to the program. Some of the talent they went after for 2021 definitely is that benchmark. I’m hoping Mike Gray makes me think that he’s one of those BCS players that somehow came to mason.

I’m also stating that I like the improvements of the recruits that Dave has started to pull. Each class has gotten better. But once again, I’m not sure if it’s good enough and it certainly isn’t winning recruiting rankings, which brings me some level of concern. It’s easy to out-recruit other CAA teams and be a big fish but it’s definitely been hard at the A10 level to keep up when top 50 and 100 recruits are normal.

 

[Patriotsince81]

I’m also stating that I like the improvements of the recruits that Dave has started to pull. Each class has gotten better.

Agree with your post with one exception, the 2021 class thus far is a total bust. Any momentum he may have been gaining does not appear to be sustainable.

 

[GMUgemini]

Verbal Commits just does a composite star based on recruiting service's ranking, so it is really hard to know. Jamal Hartwell is one of the highest rated recruits on the roster right now, but he got almost no offers whereas a guy like Calixte had offers from La Salle, St. Bonaventure, DePaul, and South Florida and is a two star.

So, if you think about the guys who had at least A-10 level or better offers this is our list: Greg Calixte, Tyler Kolek, AJ Wilson, Otis Frazier, Mike Gray (commited)

And guys who didn't: Jordan Miller, Javon Greene, Josh Oduro, Malik Henry, Ronald Polite, T.J. Gadsden (committed), Dady Haidara, Jamal Hartwell, Ian Boyd, Xavier Johnson

And the guys who just left: JDS (none), Kier (none), Mar (several offers)

I think you can see it's kind of a crapshoot.

But also you can see our biggest problem is in signing and developing forwards. At this point, outside of AJ we've got a whole lot of nothing on the front line. Maybe Calixte surprises us and puts together a solid senior season, maybe Josh Oduro comes out being more athletic than we thought he was going to be, maybe Malik Henry really IS the next AJ Wilson and shows some stuff his freshman year. But that's wishful thinking at this point, right?

ps: had Mar stuck around, our Verbal Commits ranking would put us at 9th, had Reuter stayed on the team, our ranking would have been 7th last year. But I'm sure none of us would think that those two on the roster would have made those teams any better (I'm rooting for Mar to rediscover his game at UNI, though).

 

[GMUgemini]

Agree with your post with one exception, the 2021 class thus far is a total bust. Any momentum he may have been gaining does not appear to be sustainable.

Why? Mike Gray had BCS level offers (even if they may or may not have been old -- VA Tech, Cincinatti, St. Bonaventure). We have two more spots left and so you can't really judge the rest of the class until it's complete.

 

[Patriotsince81]

Why? Mike Gray had BCS level offers (even if they may or may not have been old -- VA Tech, Cincinatti, St. Bonaventure). We have two more spots left and so you can't really judge the rest of the class until it's complete.

Thus far........

 

[GMUgemini]

Thus far........

Well, again, using our metrics Mike Gray is a better recruit than our entire 2020 class so far given his offersheet, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

And who knows about TJ Gadsden. All I know is he's a starter on the same team with some high major talent in the back court. This is what Adam Ayalew said about him before he committed: "Now is the time to buy stock in ‘21 TJ Gadsden. Absolute workhorse who guards 1-5 and can stretch the floor at 6’6+. The Mount & George Mason recently offered but would expect many more to follow suit" I'm sure there's a reason his recruiting didn't blow up as much as this tweet suggests, but he's also coming into a situation next year where you've got Miller, Frazier, and Dady all at the SF position too and who knows what will shake out.

 

[mkaufman1]

Agree with your post with one exception, the 2021 class thus far is a total bust. Any momentum he may have been gaining does not appear to be sustainable.

from the perspective of the amount of time spent going after certain guys who we thought might actually come, yeah it’s a bust so far and underwhelming. But, if Mike Gray can really play ball, I’ll gladly eat those words. There’s still some time to have a solid class.

Why? Mike Gray had BCS level offers (even if they may or may not have been old -- VA Tech, Cincinatti, St. Bonaventure). We have two more spots left and so you can't really judge the rest of the class until it's complete.

Yeah there is time to correct it, but considering the guys they went for hard and got nothing it’s been somewhat underwhelming. But the good news is there’s always time to get someone else and it’s a year before anyone hits the court which is where the real judging is anyway. I think those were old offers but if Gray is really good and as good as Erik Reynolds I’d be very pleased. Even close would be fine.

 

[GMUgemini]

from the perspective of the amount of time spent going after certain guys who we thought might actually come, yeah it’s a bust so far and underwhelming. But, if Mike Gray can really play ball, I’ll gladly eat those words. There’s still some time to have a solid class.


Yeah there is time to correct it, but considering the guys they went for hard and got nothing it’s been somewhat underwhelming. But the good news is there’s always time to get someone else and it’s a year before anyone hits the court which is where the real judging is anyway. I think those were old offers but if Gray is really good and as good as Erik Reynolds I’d be very pleased. Even close would be fine.

We also have Tyler Kolek and Ronald Polite from 2020 who also play similar position to Erik Reynolds. Hopefully, we make him regret his decision to go to St. Joes and he transfers the same way Tre Wood transferred from UMass.

I understand how easy it is to focus on who we lost out on. I remember the boards after we lost out on Georges Niang to Iowa State and then Coach L took Corey Edwards instead of waiting for Shane Larkin to commit (If you really want to go crazy, imagine having freshmen Larkin and Niang on a team with Luke Hancock, Andre Cornelius, Ryan Pearson, and Mike Morrison in 2012).

And maybe with the entire Canadian population on our coaching staff we have the inside track on Kordell Charles, or Markus Ilver likes the trees on campus, or maybe we get a transfer or a late signing from a decommit? Hard to know how 2021 will shake out. I'll be right there with you if the last two players are complete unknowns with no offers.

 

[sleeperpick]

We also have Tyler Kolek and Ronald Polite from 2020 who also play similar position to Erik Reynolds. Hopefully, we make him regret his decision to go to St. Joes and he transfers the same way Tre Wood transferred from UMass.

I understand how easy it is to focus on who we lost out on. I remember the boards after we lost out on Georges Niang to Iowa State and then Coach L took Corey Edwards instead of waiting for Shane Larkin to commit (If you really want to go crazy, imagine having freshmen Larkin and Niang on a team with Luke Hancock, Andre Cornelius, Ryan Pearson, and Mike Morrison in 2012).

And maybe with the entire Canadian population on our coaching staff we have the inside track on Kordell Charles, or Markus Ilver likes the trees on campus, or maybe we get a transfer or a late signing from a decommit? Hard to know how 2021 will shake out. I'll be right there with you if the last two players are complete unknowns with no offers.

Lmao one of our first two Commits are complete unknowns with 0 even mediocre offers. The other had two offers from past coaches at programs and then little offers in the past year... that’s not a great start

 

[GMUgemini]

Lmao one of our first two Commits are complete unknowns with 0 even mediocre offers. The other had two offers from past coaches at programs and then little offers in the past year... that’s not a great start

How do you know when those offers were extended? The only site I can find that has a timeline of offers is 247 sports and they're not generally right (for instance, for Mike Gray, all his offers were apparently on July 28, 2020. And we aren't even listed on there). Are you basing it on his Twitter feed?