Portal Math
IMO this is the negative part of the portal. For some players, entering the portal will mean the end of their scholarship and maybe their best shot at getting a college degree for free. The Top 100 players will get picked up by someone and likely get paid. Many of the rest may have to transfer down and about 25% will be without a scholarship when this is all over.
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All of this when we know that from 2021 through 2023, somewhere between only 71% and 76% of D1 transfers ended up back on a Division 1 scholarship somewhere. Even though we know that between only 67% and 70% of players that entered the portal actually transferred anywhere at all within the NCAA structure with between 23% and 27% of transfers leaving the NCAA one way or another.
The most generous reading of this is that of the 1,882 players that entered the portal by the time it closed in May 2024, only 1,317 of them were back on an NCAA roster of any kind when play started in November 2024, and only 1,000 of those guys were actually back on a Division 1 scholarship. "
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