Bubble Watch: Nebraska's tournament hopes take a hit
Selection Sunday is on March 16, so let's track which teams can play their way in or out of the tournament.
2024-2025 At Large Resume watch
- Thread starter Verdad
- Start date
Absolutely. Failing an NCAA bid, I would be thrilled!
Defense first will make most games close. Like the year UVa won the natty.
(Then you add in that our offense generally sucks, and yeah)
Why is the A10 considered a "low" mid-major?Low Mid-Majors
Work to do
vcu Rams (58%)
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vcu is the favorite to win the Atlantic 10 tournament (at 41%), but the conference has hovered between one to two NCAA berths in recent seasons. Because the Rams only rank 60th in SOR, they're no sure thing to make it in without an auto-bid; ESPN's model only gives them a 30% shot at an at-large bid conditional on not winning their conference tourney, in part because they are just 2-2 vs. Top 100 opponents. (Updated Feb. 3 at 2:18 p.m.)
Next game: Tuesday vs. La Salle, 7 p.m. (CBSSN)
Liberty Flames (42%)
Liberty is here because of its 40% probability of winning the Conference USA tournament championship, which are good odds relative to other teams that are on the bubble. But let's be clear: If the Flames fail to win the conference, there is very little chance they would make it as an at-large team. According to the ESPN Analytics model, they only have a 1.4% chance to make the NCAA tourney conditional on not grabbing an automatic bid. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:30 p.m.)
Next game: Thursday vs. Louisiana Tech, 8 p.m. (CBSSN)
Drake Bulldogs (35%)
The Missouri Valley has gotten only one NCAA bid six times in the past seven tournaments, so most likely the conference tournament will determine the fate of Drake, Bradley and the rest of the MVC. However, it's still worth at least keeping an eye on the Bulldogs, as their 20-2 record has them ranked around Top 40 in both SOR and Wins Above Bubble despite playing the nation's 178th-toughest schedule. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:18 p.m.)
Next game: Tuesday at Murray State, 7 p.m. (ESPN2/ESPN+)
Bradley Braves (34%)
Bradley has been an appealing mid-major all season, with the potential to make what would be the program's second NCAA tournament appearance since 2006. But a couple of bad recent losses have left the Braves' chances very much in flux. Most models -- including the ESPN forecast -- list Bradley's tourney probability in the 20-40% range, though most of that comes from the prospect of winning the MVC tournament. Their No. 73 ranking in SOR is outside where we'd expect an at-large tourney team to be, though a win against Drake on Feb. 16 would bolster their résumé. (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:34 p.m.)
Next game: Wednesday vs. Belmont, 9 p.m. (ESPN+)
George Mason Patriots (26%)
While George Mason and Dayton have very similar odds in the BPI forecast model, the models tend to favor the Patriots because of their superior metrics like SOR and Wins Above Bubble. The Patriots were listed in 42% of BracketMatrix's most recent entries, though they only have one real résumé-boosting game remaining (at vcu on Feb. 22). (Updated Feb. 3 at 4:10 p.m.)
Next game: Wednesday at George Washington, 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
Outside looking in
Dayton Flyers (22%), Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (14%), Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (12%), Saint Joseph's Hawks (
Oops, yeah, you're right. It was discussed.
My bad.
Not much to add here, other than I love seeing our new logo shine in some of these articles like the Bubble Watch. I'll see myself out.
Even more impressive than getting Top 25 votes is how we stack up defensively, relative to some of the biggest names in college basketball. Our EFGD% is #2 in the country! We've never reached these heights in my time following the team.
I know we love to observe how "This will help with recruiting" but THIS TRULY WILL HELP WITH RECRUITING!
A real credit to Tony and his staff. They came in and talked about "Patriot Pressure" and promised we were going to be tenacious. We were good defensively last year, but we've moved the dial to 11 with our effort this year. Our numbers would be even better if we could draw more than 3K to EBA,
Defense was always our calling card under coach L, but even then we never put up the kind of lofty metrics we are now. We now have a true identity.
p.s. better than "Mindset" and whatever that was meant to convey.
(from Bart Torvik):
Where's the party?
Sixth Man
Men's Top 25 Mid-Major College Basketball Rankings | February 4 | RealGM
See our latest menâs mid-major college basketball power rankings, with the Saint Mary's Gaels and San Diego State Aztecs leading the way.
basketball.realgm.com
Not a lot of love on this list. We are ranked below four other A10 teams. Hope Tony puts this on the bulletin board for the team. No respect.
Not sure where to put this,but cbssn did an excellent story on our team tonight before the vcu :- LaSalle game. Tony is the MVP of league (according to Jon Rothstein)and the team is one of the top defenses in the country. Sorry I do not have the link but it was nice to see team get national attention.
That’s an awful list.
I saw it as well. Cbssn often does an A10 preview show before airing a conference game .
Talk about player of week, etc. worth watching.
undertherock
Specialist
Men’s college basketball bubble watch: Who needs to close strong in mad dash to March?
With roughly 10 games remaining for most teams, a large number of teams can still call themselves tournament hopefuls.
www.nytimes.com
George Mason
Profile Strengths: Solid winning percentage in Q1+Q2 games.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, one loss each in Q3 and Q4.
Looking Ahead: The Patriots sit atop the A-10 standings in Tony Skinn’s second season in charge. Unfortunately, the league is down enough that winning the regular season title would not guarantee a bid by itself. George Mason needs to maintain its winning ways until a duel at vcu on Feb. 22, the true barometer of its at-large chances.
I would like to think if we win out, except for a loss at vcu, and make the A10 tournament finals, even with a loss there, it just might be enough to get in. You guys know a lot more about that than I do.Men’s college basketball bubble watch: Who needs to close strong in mad dash to March?
With roughly 10 games remaining for most teams, a large number of teams can still call themselves tournament hopefuls.
George Mason
Profile Strengths: Solid winning percentage in Q1+Q2 games.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, one loss each in Q3 and Q4.
Looking Ahead: The Patriots sit atop the A-10 standings in Tony Skinn’s second season in charge. Unfortunately, the league is down enough that winning the regular season title would not guarantee a bid by itself. George Mason needs to maintain its winning ways until a duel at vcu on Feb. 22, the true barometer of its at-large chances.
What would really be disheartening is to foul up here at the end and not even make the NIT.
Yea, very well could be. Us having a greater chance to get in, we can thank the ACC being WAY down this year. They may only get 3 teams in this year when they usually consistently put in 6-8 teams, so their is greater hope to pull from Mid-Majors.
However, the SEC and Big 10 are really strong this year and will get majority of their teams in.
But due to the ACC being crap this year, better chance for them to pull from the mid-majors to fill spots.
Thanks for the link--isn't there a pay wall for the Athletic?Men’s college basketball bubble watch: Who needs to close strong in mad dash to March?
With roughly 10 games remaining for most teams, a large number of teams can still call themselves tournament hopefuls.
George Mason
Profile Strengths: Solid winning percentage in Q1+Q2 games.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, one loss each in Q3 and Q4.
Looking Ahead: The Patriots sit atop the A-10 standings in Tony Skinn’s second season in charge. Unfortunately, the league is down enough that winning the regular season title would not guarantee a bid by itself. George Mason needs to maintain its winning ways until a duel at vcu on Feb. 22, the true barometer of its at-large chances.
See also vcu, the only other A10 team listed:
vcu
Profile Strengths: Strong overall record and 6-5 road/neutral, quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Paltry 0-1 mark vs. Q1, Q4 loss, low resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Rams are looking at an uphill climb despite a gaudy 18-5 record. They do not have a signature win, and their only real chance to get one — Friday night at Dayton — may not even be a Q1 game when all is said and done. vcu’s best chance is to stack more wins, find a way to secure the A-10 regular season title, and cheer against the other bubblers.
- Thread Starter
- #116
As the placeholder AQ from the A10 due to being in 1st place, we have been holding steady as a 12 seed. This projected seed also means we would be (obviously at this point) on the outside looking in if we don't capture the auto bid.
The last 8 teams in are 2 10 seeds, and 6 11 seeds. This means we are not far off the bubble as a projected 12 seed. Most realistic at large scenario is winning out, and losing in semi's or finals and hoping that road win at vcu combined with performance since the ECU loss is enough (maybe we could also tolerate a loss at SLU or vs SJU in this scenario).
It was our winning streak to end the season in 2011 that got us in, because we did not have a super great OOC that year (but we definitely had more quality wins than this year).
Here are the teams to root against:
The last 8 teams in are 2 10 seeds, and 6 11 seeds. This means we are not far off the bubble as a projected 12 seed. Most realistic at large scenario is winning out, and losing in semi's or finals and hoping that road win at vcu combined with performance since the ECU loss is enough (maybe we could also tolerate a loss at SLU or vs SJU in this scenario).
It was our winning streak to end the season in 2011 that got us in, because we did not have a super great OOC that year (but we definitely had more quality wins than this year).
Here are the teams to root against:
The question is what do we root for in the two vcu/Dayton games. A split? Would love to have an easier path to regular season champs but if Dayton loses too much that road win loses its shine. And if vcu loses both to them then that opportunity for a Q1 road win starts to vanish. I think we can take a regular season loss, MAYBE two, and a finals loss, but I don't think SJU at home can be one of them.
FWIW vcu was top 40 in the NET just the other day at 37, no idea if they shifted a bit. We're not in the top 50 unfortunately.
I'd be hard pressed that if we end up in the 24-26 win range, we're not going to be in some conversations. There isn't much Mason can do other than keep winning, get more efficient on offense, and continue to draw in national attention. The last 10 is not a metric anymore, but the "eye test" and a "good story" could help us out.
Its all premature though, gotta take it one game at a time. As Tony says, we will get every teams best from here on out and Mason is the hunted. Keep things rolling and the cards will fall where they need to.
I'd be hard pressed that if we end up in the 24-26 win range, we're not going to be in some conversations. There isn't much Mason can do other than keep winning, get more efficient on offense, and continue to draw in national attention. The last 10 is not a metric anymore, but the "eye test" and a "good story" could help us out.
Its all premature though, gotta take it one game at a time. As Tony says, we will get every teams best from here on out and Mason is the hunted. Keep things rolling and the cards will fall where they need to.
Tonight, we root against vcu, tomorrow, we root against vcu, Sunday, we root against vcu...
Dayton needs to stay a Q1 for us. vcu is pretty much a lock to be a Q1 games.
I’d say a split is good with each home team winning.
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