2019-20 Schedule Thread

[Falco]

Agree with you on this point. We have to win in the A-10 - period. If we are successful in conference - then post opportunities will be there. But we need to take care of business during conference play. A-10 is looking interesting this year - so it will be tough.

Disclaimer* this is not my prediction, I have no idea how the season will unfold.

But Mason has the opportunity to be an at Large. Lets say they finish top 3 in the A-10. 25 win season with key wins over UMD, TCU, vcu, UMBC, Nebraska. I would think that's enough to get a bid.

I repeat that's not prediction, but I think the schedule is good enough to give your self an opportunity for a tourney bid.

 

[Mason32]

There are roughly 10 teams in all college basketball that have a worse SOS than Mason, enough with the at-large talk

 

[MasonFanatic]

There are roughly 10 teams in all college basketball that have a worse SOS than Mason, enough with the at-large talk

Any current SOS calculations do not include our remaining two Caymans Classic games. Let's wait and see how the SOS shakes out after those opponents are determined.

 

[sleeperpick]

Any current SOS calculations do not include our remaining two Caymans Classic games. Let's wait and see how the SOS shakes out after those opponents are determined.

We play Odu who just lost to jmu then either the lowest Ken Pom Pac12 or Big 10 school. It’s not going to help that much. Just not how the math works but we shall see

 

[patriotchild]

That means we are also basically running the table with no bad losses. Agree possible, but highly improbable. And likely doa after tonight.

 

[GMUgemini]

There are roughly 10 teams in all college basketball that have a worse SOS than Mason, enough with the at-large talk

Mason is not an at-large team, but like I said, if this team goes 15-3 in conference, their OOC SOS won’t matter.

 

[MasonSAE4]

Disclaimer* this is not my prediction, I have no idea how the season will unfold.

But Mason has the opportunity to be an at Large. Lets say they finish top 3 in the A-10. 25 win season with key wins over UMD, TCU, vcu, UMBC, Nebraska. I would think that's enough to get a bid.

I repeat that's not prediction, but I think the schedule is good enough to give your self an opportunity for a tourney bid.

The problem isn't with the higher-end teams on our schedule, it's with the lower ones. If you want an at-large, your lower-end opponents should be in the caliber of, let's say, Vermont. Not Longwood. That way if you do go on the road and lose a close one to a P5 school, you've got a little more to fall back on.

 

[GMUgemini]

The problem isn't with the higher-end teams on our schedule, it's with the lower ones. If you want an at-large, your lower-end opponents should be in the caliber of, let's say, Vermont. Not Longwood. That way if you do go on the road and lose a close one to a P5 school, you've got a little more to fall back on.

You are thinking of the CAA. If your weakest opponent is Vermont, you’ve way over-scheduled in your OOC.

 

[MasonSAE4]

You are thinking of the CAA. If your weakest opponent is Vermont, you’ve way over-scheduled in your OOC.

I'm not saying he singular weakest team needs to be of the Vermont caliber, but you can't have five games sub 250 in Kenpom. Two powderpuff games max. You should have a good solid base of games against teams floating in the 100-150 range on top of your occasional P5.

 

[GMUgemini]

I'm not saying he singular weakest team needs to be of the Vermont caliber, but you can't have five games sub 250 in Kenpom. Two powderpuff games max. You should have a good solid base of games against teams floating in the 100-150 range on top of your occasional P5.

Yeah, but given where the teams are predicted to finish, we have 7 teams in the conference that will be between 10-150 (Dayton and vcu are both predicted to be top 25). That represents 10 of 18 conference games (and that doesn’t include Richmond and St. Bonaventure who are probably being undersold right now). Plus, UMD, TCU (who will both be top 75 teams) and ODU and Jacksonville St. (who will both likely be top 150 teams) and that’s 14 games against top 150 teams (at least 4 of which will be against top 25 teams).

I would be shocked if we did better than 10-8 in conference, though. With two games against vcu, Richmond, Bonaventure, and UMass, and away to Davidson and Duquesne; not to mention the home games to URI, Dayton and SLU (to say nothing of how St. Joes can be a very tough game depending on how their 3s are looking on a given night) that’s a tough sled to anything more than 11 conference wins for this team.

 

[MasonSAE4]

Yeah, but given where the teams are predicted to finish, we have 7 teams in the conference that will be between 10-150 (Dayton and vcu are both predicted to be top 25). That represents 10 of 18 conference games (and that doesn’t include Richmond and St. Bonaventure who are probably being undersold right now). Plus, UMD, TCU (who will both be top 75 teams) and ODU and Jacksonville St. (who will both likely be top 150 teams) and that’s 14 games against top 150 teams (at least 4 of which will be against top 25 teams).

I would be shocked if we did better than 10-8 in conference, though. With two games against vcu, Richmond, Bonaventure, and UMass, and away to Davidson and Duquesne; not to mention the home games to URI, Dayton and SLU (to say nothing of how St. Joes can be a very tough game depending on how their 3s are looking on a given night) that’s a tough sled to anything more than 11 conference wins for this team.

Right I mean I think you and I are in agreement that this is not an at-large caliber team. I'm kind of looking at the OOC in vacuum against a generic, average year in the A10. I agree this years A10 is likely significantly improved but OOC scheduling can be controlled and I think if you're a D1 coach looking at your team and thinking "we're a tournament team", you schedule a few more OOC games in that 100-150 range because you aren't afraid of losing. Relying on the conference schedule to boost a resume is fine if you're in the ACC, but it's pretty questionable in the A10. A couple of key injuries across the conference and some pretty good teams end up being really mediocre.

 

[Pablo]

NCAA March Madness
@marchmadness
·
20h

Proving the doubters wrong.



#KatzRankz - Most Surprising Teams, as heard on the #MM365 podcast!
1. Michigan
2. DePaul
3. Butler
4. Stanford
5. Arkansas
6. San Diego State
7. Evansville
8. Duquesne
9. George Mason
10. Santa Clara

http://bit.ly/AndyKatz

 

[Mason32]

Would have been a great year to start another home & home series with Northern Iowa

 

[sleeperpick]

I don't understand the negativity around our SOS. The A10 is looking really good this year, so that alone helps us. vcu will probably be ranked when we play them. And Mason has opportunities with a few big OOC games.

hate it had to be you but Jim deleted his posts (smart man). We are currently 340th in SOS. I don't think many of you realize what SOS actually means. You cannot have a 325 SOS and have it move up unless you play in a good conference. A10 is mid major

 

[sleeperpick]

Yeah, but given where the teams are predicted to finish, we have 7 teams in the conference that will be between 10-150 (Dayton and vcu are both predicted to be top 25). That represents 10 of 18 conference games (and that doesn’t include Richmond and St. Bonaventure who are probably being undersold right now). Plus, UMD, TCU (who will both be top 75 teams) and ODU and Jacksonville St. (who will both likely be top 150 teams) and that’s 14 games against top 150 teams (at least 4 of which will be against top 25 teams).

I would be shocked if we did better than 10-8 in conference, though. With two games against vcu, Richmond, Bonaventure, and UMass, and away to Davidson and Duquesne; not to mention the home games to URI, Dayton and SLU (to say nothing of how St. Joes can be a very tough game depending on how their 3s are looking on a given night) that’s a tough sled to anything more than 11 conference wins for this team.

yikes this wasn't great.. especially the Jax St at 265 lol

 

[Five Two]

hate it had to be you but Jim deleted his posts (smart man). We are currently 340th in SOS. I don't think many of you realize what SOS actually means. You cannot have a 325 SOS and have it move up unless you play in a good conference. A10 is mid major

true, but as someone pointed out earlier in this thread or in another- knowing the team we had coming into the season, would you rather have us be 11-2 with the schedule we had or 6-7 against tougher competition?

Is it better for the conference for us to be 11-2 entering conference play with a SOS in the 300s or 6-7 with a SOS in the 190s?

 

[sleeperpick]

true, but as someone pointed out earlier in this thread or in another- knowing the team we had coming into the season, would you rather have us be 11-2 with the schedule we had or 6-7 against tougher competition?

Is it better for the conference for us to be 11-2 entering conference play with a SOS in the 300s or 6-7 with a SOS in the 190s?

I honestly can't answer that because we would end up being further exposed from A10 anyway. I personally would rather see us play up to competition rather than win 3 point games to the Navy's and Longwoods of the world. weak SOS is what is keeping Paulsen's job. so IMO he should have scheduled himself 150 non conf SOS and we might be getting a shiny new coach next year that could actually take us to the next level.

 

[Five Two]

I honestly can't answer that because we would end up being further exposed from A10 anyway. I personally would rather see us play up to competition rather than win 3 point games to the Navy's and Longwoods of the world. weak SOS is what is keeping Paulsen's job. so IMO he should have scheduled himself 150 non conf SOS and we might be getting a shiny new coach next year that could actually take us to the next level.

I'd hope that Brad can see through the 3 point wins vs Navy and Longwood to know that we aren't competitive in the A10. But I see your point, a 6-7 OOC plus an A10 PIG appearance might make it crystal clear to Brad and anyone else that a change is needed.

 

[sleeperpick]

I'd hope that Brad can see through the 3 point wins vs Navy and Longwood to know that we aren't competitive in the A10. But I see your point, a 6-7 OOC plus an A10 PIG appearance might make it crystal clear to Brad and anyone else that a change is needed.

We should never finish a season below 200 IMO. That is an injustice to donors. Granted every in state rival is on a down year that still doesn’t come close to fixing it. They better not schedule like that again next year

 

[Falco]

hate it had to be you but Jim deleted his posts (smart man). We are currently 340th in SOS. I don't think many of you realize what SOS actually means. You cannot have a 325 SOS and have it move up unless you play in a good conference. A10 is mid major

Yeah it was a dumb post.