I also know this much: If Otis is performing better by the season opener, Paulsen won't hesitate to start him. Bucknell started three freshmen last season and won the Patriot League regular season.
When Paulsen decides who is starting, his decision is usually determined mostly by defense. Of the three freshmen you mention, one of them rarely played in December and didn't get his first start until mid-January (Stephen Brown). The other one (Zach Thomas) didn't get a start until mid-February, and played almost no minutes at all until mid-January.
As for history, Mike Muscala, who I'm sure you know now plays for the Hawks, didn't start even one game until mid-January of his freshman year - even though he was good enough to make 2nd team All-PL as a frosh. And the next year, Cameron Ayers, who later would become the league's POY and who had a good season in the D League last year, didn't even get one start. Both Ayers and Muscala did see time off the bench - but their minutes were limited by their defense. A more extreme example is Chris Hass, who was All-PL last year as a junior. Hass played exactly 47 minutes for the entire season his freshman year - even though the players all said that no-one could guard him in practice.
For all of those players, their playing time was determined by learning exactly what Paulsen wanted on defense. No matter how good they were offensively - and all of the ones mentioned above were very good at that end as frosh - they got virtually no minutes until they knew exactly when he wanted help and exactly how he wanted it done. Beyond knowing when to help, he abhors switching and he abhors going under a screen, no matter who the guy is with the ball.
Otis Livingston @OlivingstonTV 
Alan @MasonFanatic 
Jim McConnell @jmcconnell70 
George Papas @gpapas35 
