As long as we keep pace, we have a chance to take one from vcu (I'm not sure what the tiebreaker would look like if we split with vcu and are tied at the end of the season). Davidson is the team who needs to lose for us to win the conference.
If I'm remembering correctly, after head to head it goes to record against top teams. If Davidson finishes first, we're both 0-1 against them. It would then move down probably to Dayton, where vcu would win because they're 2-0 against them and we're only 1-0. I'll have to check to make sure, but I spent a lot of time on tiebreakers during last year's 9-9 explosion and I'm pretty sure this is how it works.
Edit - confirmed. From the A10 website:
Two-Team Tie
1. Head-to-head competition.
2. Conference record of the tied teams based on winning percentage versus the highest
common opponent and proceeding down to the lowest common opponent, if necessary, until
one team gains an advantage.
a. All ties are broken in descending order.
b. When arriving at another pair of tied teams, use each team’s record against the tied teams
as a group. When comparing records against a group of teams, the higher winning
percentage will prevail. In case of tied percentages vs. the team or group of 1.000 or
.000, the following shall apply: 2-0 is better than 1-0; 0-1 is better than 0-2.