OT: Conference Realignment

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Pete Thamel

@PeteThamel

Sources: In the next 24 hours, there’s two calls for the ACC to vet and have early exploratory discussions on the potential addition of Cal and Stanford. One is for ACC athletic directors and the other for the league's presidents and chancellors.


3:06 PM · Aug 7, 2023
 
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"The issue with Cal and Stanford’s addition to the ACC is similar the challenge now plaguing former Pac-12 conference rivals USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, four schools now bound for the Midwest-based Big Ten. Of the ACC’s 15-school membership (14 for football plus Notre Dame for other sports), all are located in the Eastern Time Zone, necessitating a cross-country flight and likely more than one flight to travel to a sporting event including Cal or Stanford plus one of its hypothetical east-coast conference rivals in the ACC.

'It’s complicated,' an ACC source told Thamel. 'There’s a significant travel expense. I think it’s going to be all over the board with both the ADs and the presidents in what they may want to do. [Cal and Stanford] would likely have to take a reduced share. Eventually, though, they’re going to want to become a full share.'

Additionally, the additions of Cal and Stanford are unlikely to help the ACC’s overall revenue, according to ESPN. The ACC’s long-term television deal with ESPN has limited the earning potential of its schools compared with those in the SEC or Big Ten, and recently, officials at Florida State have openly expressed concern about the school’s future, despite being essentially locked into the ACC for another decade thanks to TV.

Thamel mentioned that Cal and Stanford are considering other options for their conference future, including the possibility of remaining in the Pac-12 alongside Oregon State and Washington State, both of which sponsor women’s swimming programs but not men’s, and adding at least two other schools for 2024-25 and then further institutions from the Mountain West after that."
 

GMUgemini

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It’ll be interesting to see if the Big 10 experiment works. The Big 12 PAC additions at least seem to make some kind of geographic sense, especially if you eliminated the UCF and Cincinnati additions.

But it seems to me that college sports (even football) is still regional and the ratings are dominated by historical and regional rivalries. Will that carry over with the four PAC schools having to play a bunch of Midwest teams? I feel like the B1G might be in for a Big East like implosion down the line, especially if the league favors the historical teams in scheduling too much.

I think the ACC might do the same if they added Cal and Stanford. Just too much weirdness in that conference between football heavy schools and basketball heavy schools and then two elite west coast universities with elite Olympic sports programs (a lot of mixed priorities in the basket).
 

Old Ram

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It’ll be interesting to see if the Big 10 experiment works. The Big 12 PAC additions at least seem to make some kind of geographic sense, especially if you eliminated the UCF and Cincinnati additions.

But it seems to me that college sports (even football) is still regional and the ratings are dominated by historical and regional rivalries. Will that carry over with the four PAC schools having to play a bunch of Midwest teams? I feel like the B1G might be in for a Big East like implosion down the line, especially if the league favors the historical teams in scheduling too much.

I think the ACC might do the same if they added Cal and Stanford. Just too much weirdness in that conference between football heavy schools and basketball heavy schools and then two elite west coast universities with elite Olympic sports programs (a lot of mixed priorities in the basket).
Agree with you on the UCF addition geographically, however Cincy is probably only about 300 miles from Morgantown. It provides the opportunity to form a new regional rivalry for WVU.
 

bravesfan

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I think the ACC might do the same if they added Cal and Stanford. Just too much weirdness in that conference between football heavy schools and basketball heavy schools and then two elite west coast universities with elite Olympic sports programs (a lot of mixed priorities in the basket).

They could pull a CAA and change their name to "All Coasts Conference."
 
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"ACC athletic directors were scheduled to meet to discuss the schools' viability on a Monday call. ACC presidents meet later this week on the subject. It's not clear whether either meeting includes exclusive discussion of expansion. The talks are considered preliminary at this time, but as we've seen over the last couple years, realignment can accelerate quickly.

Furthermore, the University of California Board of Regents has scheduled a meeting at 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday to discuss its Pac-12 membership."

"Why the ACC?​

The biggest question in a potential addition of Cal and Stanford by the ACC is whether expanding with those programs would bring enough prominence into the conference to raise the average annual value (AAV) of its media rights contract with ESPN. ACC schools are expected upwards of $40 million from the deal, more than the Big 12 average ($31.7 million) but significantly less than their peers in the Big Ten and SEC.

If adding the Golden Bears and Cardinal did increase the ACC's AAV, would it be enough to satisfy Clemson, Florida State, Miami and other programs who are frustrated with their shares?"

"Why not the ACC?​

Such a move would result in significant travel issues -- namely scheduling and expenses. As much as has been made about the West Coast teams in the Big Ten, the shortest road trip for Cal and Stanford in the ACC would be 1,978 air miles to Louisville."

"Stanford, a private university considered the top academic institution to play in the FBS, has been rumored to be considering independent status. That would impact the Olympic sports for a program that frequently wins the Director's Cup, an annual award for the nation's best athletic department. Stanford, which fields more collegiate sports than any FBS athletic program in the nation, won the Director's Cup for the 26th time this academic year. The award has only been around for 29 years."

"What about Oregon State, Washington State?​

Cal and Stanford -- along with fellow Pac-12 leftovers OSU and WSU -- have also been mentioned as possibilities in the Mountain West and American, though the former pair are far larger institutions by nearly every metric."

"The Beavers and Cougars, unfortunately, stick out compared to other athletic programs. They rank at the bottom of every financial metric among public Pac-12 schools, according to Sportico. Their donations trail the next-lowest team by more than 25%, and they received a combined $20 million in institutional support during the 2021-22 school year. More than 40% of Oregon State's revenue came from media rights and conference distributions last year. Falling into a non-power conference could be devistating financially for both programs."
 
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"ACC discussing SMU as expansion option in addition to Stanford, Cal: Source​

In addition to its ongoing exploration of adding Stanford and Cal, the ACC is set to discuss an expansion scenario in which it also adds SMU at a meeting of league athletic directors Tuesday night, a source briefed on the conference’s plans confirmed to The Athletic. Yahoo Sports first reported the development.
ACC athletic directors met Monday, followed by league presidents on Tuesday morning, to discuss the possibility of adding Stanford and Cal, but no vote on the issue was taken. Another meeting of ACC athletic directors is scheduled for Tuesday evening.

SMU, a member of the American Athletic Conference since its current version formed in 2013, has been outside a major power conference since the Southwest Conference dissolved in 1996."
 
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"As Stanford and California await a decision from the ACC about possible membership, the Mountain West Conference remains on standby, ready to respond however those dominos fall."

"If Cal and Stanford are accepted into the ACC -- a possibility that hit roadblocks Wednesday evening -- there is a widespread expectation that Oregon State and Washington State would move to the MWC, sources told ESPN.

If the ACC does not add Cal and Stanford, however, it's less clear how things will play out. Since Friday, when five of the remaining nine Pac-12 schools announced they were leaving, the MWC has been gaming out various scenarios."

"The American Athletic Conference would also be willing to consider adding all four remaining Pac-12 schools, sources told ESPN.

Nevarez declined to provide details about whom she has communicated with or what specific scenarios have been discussed, but stressed the MWC is open to considering several possibilities.

That includes, but is not limited to, the idea of Stanford and Cal belonging to the MWC in all sports other than football. This could come about if Stanford and Cal were to choose to go independent in football or find a current Power 5 conference to join as football-only members."
 

GMUgemini

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That would make a lot of sense if the rules governing division 1 football weren’t so dumb (meaning no matter how strong the MWC got they wouldn’t have a seat at the table with the power X conferences [power 4, soon to be power 3?] nor get equitable revenue distribution from the postseason).
 

GMU79

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All of this is ridiculous. But, I do enjoy CFB. When the games are on, I won't be thinking about conferences. I'll be enjoying the game. Whoa Nellie!
 
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"It is looking increasingly unlikely that the ACC is going to expand and add Pac-12 schools Cal and Stanford.

According to a Sports Illustrated report from Pat Forde and Richard Johnson, the vote to add Cal and Stanford has stalled "one vote short" and while league members have stopped short of declaring both school's addition to the league is off the table 'it does not appear that will change'.

To get into the conference, Cal and Stanford need 12 of the 15 members to vote yes, and according to the report, the schools that remain opposed to adding them are Florida State, Clemson, NC State, and North Carolina."
 

Pikapppatri8

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"It is looking increasingly unlikely that the ACC is going to expand and add Pac-12 schools Cal and Stanford.

According to a Sports Illustrated report from Pat Forde and Richard Johnson, the vote to add Cal and Stanford has stalled "one vote short" and while league members have stopped short of declaring both school's addition to the league is off the table 'it does not appear that will change'.

To get into the conference, Cal and Stanford need 12 of the 15 members to vote yes, and according to the report, the schools that remain opposed to adding them are Florida State, Clemson, NC State, and North Carolina."
If the PAC-12 weren't so arrogant and were more realistic like the Big-10 they could have cut a deal to save the conference. They didn't - arrogance and a lack of understanding of the new operating environment cost them dearly.
 

phoenix-arizona

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What I heard was that ESPN offered them 30 million per school but the conference heads or the ADs wanted 50 million per school and ESPN balked.
 
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"USC leaving the Pac-12 obviously limited the ceiling on the Pac-12’s value. The hubris attached to wanting $50 million per year was not only unrealistic; it angered ESPN and can now be seen as a reason the network did not come to the Pac-12’s rescue in the final weeks and months before Colorado bolted for the Big 12 and began the chain reaction of departures that essentially destroyed the Pac-12.

The Pac-12 presidents did not understand USC’s value."

"Fox helped push Oregon to the Big Ten with a late infusion of money, per Canzano"

"Pac-12 presidents rejected Larry Scott’s Pac-16 plan in 2011, a plan that would have included Texas and Oklahoma. Once again, while the Pac-12 commissioners bear plenty of blame for the conference’s demise, it is ultimately the Pac-12 CEO Group that killed the conference. It rejected deals that undeniably would have strengthened the conference."
 
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OP
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"On Friday we learned of the hiring of Oliver Luck by the remaining Pac-12 schools as a consultant.

The former West Virginia athletic director and commissioner of the XFL is now figuring out what the next move is for the Pac-12 programs."

"Luck is renowned for his savvy and his connections in the industry, and is currently in the process of figuring out the best options for the conference and also determining if there is a media rights deal out there for them. The belief is that the conference could merge with the American Athletic Conference, and Stanford would play a certain set of programs according to media consultant Jim Williams.

It has become abundantly clear that if there is a merger with either one of the Group of 5 conferences, not only will they have a decent chance of keeping Power status but also Stanford would be the face of the conference."
 
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