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16 point favorite according to Vegas Insider.
I'm getting a bit nervous with some of the upsets this week in the A10. LaSalle as 12 pt underdogs won AT URI by 12 tonight and UMass beat Dayton last night. With us favored by 16.4 (rpiforecast) to 17 (kenpom), it's making me think that this is nothing is a sure thing. SLU, as the only team in the league without a conference win, is having a terrible year, but according to someone on their message board (posted by Pablo in this thread), they've started playing somewhat better.
Maybe I'm taking the wrong view on this. The A10 may be more wide-open than we've (or at least I've) thought. vcu and Richmond are the only 2 teams undefeated (4-0) in conference. Are they really that good?
Bishop is the guy who killed us in the PIG last March.
I think we wear them down early in the second half and run away with it. Cuz I mean, seriously, Paulsen......http://www.billikens.com/forum/index.php?/topic/27426-gm-over-the-bills-by-16/:
Posted 1 hour ago · Report post
"Well the good news is our trend line seems to ne pointed up. TOs are down ...we have improved by about 4 pts/gm. The bad news is as you can see by the spread ...4pts isn't enough. If we have another "good" game then we will lose by 12. We need to step it up a little more. To me this means 40 min of b-ball.Yesterday, was another good example. We played 36 min of good b-ball ( for more detail ..see post game analysis of Duq thread) Part of that issue is depth . When you have a number of good players it is easier to play 40 good min. Unfortunately, we don't have that luxury...which means either those who are playing well need to give another 10% or someone who is not doing much recently needs to step up.
The Bills (F+ ) will have a tougher opponent in GM ( B- ) than Duq ( C- ). GM like always, brings good guard play...led by their leading scorer Moore who also leads in assists and rebounds....coupled with Livingston their 2nd leading scorer and team leader in steals One thing different this year is that GM can't shoot 3's. They really only have 1 player who comes off the bench that can hit from the arc (Kier) But GM makes up for it with strong rebounding on both sides of the court especially on offense ( A ). GM strong suit is good defense especially on the 3 pt shot (A- ) We will have a tougher time putting up good numbers from beyond the arc after facing teams that don't defend the 3 very well. GM will have 13 TOs... if they wind up in single digits or a differential of 5 or more it will be ugly. Again I would like to see some games where we have less TOs than our opponent. As I pointed out in an earlier thread we have had only 1 game where we had less TOs than our opponent.
Bottom line...40 min of b-ball...TO differential needs to be even or better...and we need to keep shooting like we have recently."
This team doesn't play well as a favorite. Was worried when I saw the line was so big. Moore picking up those two quick fouls really drained all energy out of this team.