Game 16: Davidson College, Wednesday, January 9th, 7 PM, ESPN+

[GMUSig03]

I think most of time, 12-6 in conference is good enough to get you in that top 4. Not all the time, but most.

If that's the case, break the season up into 6 3-game stretches. If you can go 2-1 in each 3 game stretch, you get to that 12-6.

1st stretch - @ St Joes, St Bona, Davidson went 2-1
2nd stretch - @ RI, @UMass, Fordham
3rd stretch - @ Dayton, GW, @ vcu
4th stretch - @ Richmond, LaSalle, UMass
5th stretch - @ St Bona, Duq, Richmond
6th stretch - @ StL, vcu, @ GW

the 3rd and 6th stretches might be the hardest to go 2-1
the 4th and 5th stretches are possible 3-0 if we don't go ice cold like last night.

Good way to break it down. Looking at last 4 seasons (since A10 had 18 game schedule), 12-6 will get you top 4 50% of the time, 13-5 100% of the time.

This year, of all years, a top 4 seed would be crucial since the league is such a toss up. Means we would really have a shot at getting hot (and lucky with a top team being upset) and stealing the bid.

 

[Patriot Lawdog]

Really disappointing loss- I think Boyd had 3 3's that rattled around the rim. He had one where he was trailing in transition, and a 3 rattled out that would have put us up by two. Instead, they get a rebound and came back for a AND-1. That sequence pretty much killed the game with about 5 mins to go.

After a sloppy opening with turnovers, the team played some good defense and had nice motion on offense. We were getting good penetration and taking open shots. What else do you want? Oh yeah- for at least 30% of them to fall. We have even a decent shooting night and we win that game.

Totally agree on that Boyd 3. He makes that 3 and I think we win the game.

 

[GMUgemini]

Totally agree on that Boyd 3. He makes that 3 and I think we win the game.

Didn’t JDS have one in the second half that almost went down popped out, hung in the side rim and then fall out too? I think I remember one of his shots being really close to going down.

 

[Patriot Lawdog]

Didn’t JDS have one in the second half that almost went down popped out, hung in the side rim and then fall out too? I think I remember one of his shots being really close to going down.

Yep. That would have helped, too.

 

[sleeperpick]

Didn’t JDS have one in the second half that almost went down popped out, hung in the side rim and then fall out too? I think I remember one of his shots being really close to going down.

yea and boy does that kid have a pretty stroke. He WILL be a factor sooner than later.. his defense looked improved as well. He misses long or short on his in game threes. He will get more comfortable and dial it in

 

[MasonSAE4]

The sheer number of 3’s I’ve seen rattle in and out at EBA is turning me into a conspiracy theorist.

 

[FreeGunston12]

To blame the loss on poor shooting is foolish. To blame it on poor offense is accurate.

 

[GMUgemini]

To blame the loss on poor shooting is foolish. To blame it on poor offense is accurate.

There was some poor offense, to be fair (and also to be fair some good defense by Davidson), but there were open shots that were flat out missed and those are the ones we are talking about. No one is complaining about Javon missing that bad shot he took at the end of the game, for instance

 

[sleeperpick]

There was some poor offense, to be fair (and also to be fair some good defense by Davidson), but there were open shots that were flat out missed and those are the ones we are talking about. No one is complaining about Javon missing that bad shot he took at the end of the game, for instance

speak for yourself. I am definitely complaining about another failed inbounds play drawn up by Paulsen... Horrible stuff

 

[gmujim92]

speak for yourself. I am definitely complaining about another failed inbounds play drawn up by Paulsen... Horrible stuff

Do you seriously think DP drew up a play intending for Javon to take a contested, double-clutch 3? SMDH.

 

[sleeperpick]

Do you seriously think DP drew up a play intending for Javon to take a contested, double-clutch 3? SMDH.

No I seriously think that a wheel route is now 0-2 this season in game winning plays and it clearly doesn't work. SMDH

 

[FreeGunston12]

Do you seriously think DP drew up a play intending for Javon to take a contested, double-clutch 3? SMDH.

You can shake your damn head, but you know what he didn’t draw up? A successful inbound play.

However, that was really not my point to pick on. Moreso, there was nothing going offensively for us, aside from Kier making it happen on his own. No movement. No ability to get the ball in and out of dangerous spots in the zone. No shots in rhythm. Of course we are going to miss the types of threes we were taking. By the time we got any open looks (maybe 3 in total) we were so damn cold that it didn’t matter. It was a total failure of the offense, and I blame the scheme/game plan.

 

[patriotchild]

To add to the blame the scheme thing. We need to get Mar involved early and not by having him toss up a three. If we could get him close to the rim I’m suspecting we’ll start seeing his shot fall.

Also have to scheme for Otis. Although he had a bunch of open looks that he passed up and he’s normally drain those. He doesn’t have the same energy or pop as last year. As someone mentioned He’s also avoiding contact which he doesn’t normally do. I haven’t seen his number of FT attempts this year but I suspect they are way down. The optimistic conspiracy theorist in me says he has some sort of nagging injury that is contributing to his inconsistency and can explain this.

 

[99 Patriot]

One halftime adjustment I found interesting was us crashing the offensive glass. First half we very purposely dropped back to avoid transition baskets by them and made little attempt at hitting the glass. Second half we attacked the offensive glass. It led to a few easy layups in transition for them early in the half but overall served us very well down the stretch. With our poor shooting and their big man foul trouble I wish we’d have been aggressive on the offensive glass sooner.

 

[gmujim92]

You can shake your damn head, but you know what he didn’t draw up? A successful inbound play.

However, that was really not my point to pick on. Moreso, there was nothing going offensively for us, aside from Kier making it happen on his own. No movement. No ability to get the ball in and out of dangerous spots in the zone. No shots in rhythm. Of course we are going to miss the types of threes we were taking. By the time we got any open looks (maybe 3 in total) we were so damn cold that it didn’t matter. It was a total failure of the offense, and I blame the scheme/game plan.

You can blame whatever you want. You’re wrong. We moved the ball with purpose against the zone and got good shots in the second half. We had three or four rattle in and out ... if one goes in, it’s a different game, even forgetting the missed dunk and free throws.

As for the final sequence, it doesn’t matter how great a play is drawn up if the players don’t execute it properly ... and I can guarantee you the last play was not designed to result in the shot we ended up with.

But hey, we lost so let’s blame the coach as usual.

 

[FreeGunston12]

You can blame whatever you want. You’re wrong. We moved the ball with purpose against the zone and got good shots in the second half. We had three or four rattle in and out ... if one goes in, it’s a different game, even forgetting the missed dunk and free throws.

As for the final sequence, it doesn’t matter how great a play is drawn up if the players don’t execute it properly ... and I can guarantee you the last play was not designed to result in the shot we ended up with.

But hey, we lost so let’s blame the coach as usual.

I don’t care how close the final score was. We didn’t play well offensively. The shots we took were not good shots. We absolutely did not “move the ball with purpose” against the zone. We looked completely lost offensively with the exception of Kier in the final 15 or so minutes. Our entire offense revolved around Kier beating the zone off the dribble from the corner/wing. Without Kier, that’s a 30 point loss and you know it.

But hey, let’s give the team abounding praise for another moral victory. Hoorah.

 

[Washingtonian]

To add to the blame the scheme thing. We need to get Mar involved early and not by having him toss up a three. If we could get him close to the rim I’m suspecting we’ll start seeing his shot fall.

Also have to scheme for Otis. Although he had a bunch of open looks that he passed up and he’s normally drain those. He doesn’t have the same energy or pop as last year. As someone mentioned He’s also avoiding contact which he doesn’t normally do. I haven’t seen his number of FT attempts this year but I suspect they are way down. The optimistic conspiracy theorist in me says he has some sort of nagging injury that is contributing to his inconsistency and can explain this.

38-44 from the free throw line for Otis.
At this point last year, he was 48-59 from the free throw line.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/otis-livingstonii-1/gamelog/2018

 

[JimP]

38-44 from the free throw line for Otis.
At this point last year, he was 48-59 from the free throw line.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/otis-livingstonii-1/gamelog/2018

Good stat. He does great when he gets there, but hasn't been getting there as much. There is something to DLamb's "Otis shouldn't shy from contact" comment.

 

[GMUSig03]

Good stat. He does great when he gets there, but hasn't been getting there as much. There is something to DLamb's "Otis shouldn't shy from contact" comment.

Now 4 straight games that Otis has not shot a FT. That needs to be a focal point - not only Otis getting to the line, but Kier and Javon are also elite FT shooters based on this season's percentages. Need to have those 3 working on driving to the basket and finishing.

 

[gmujim92]

I don’t care how close the final score was. We didn’t play well offensively. The shots we took were not good shots. We absolutely did not “move the ball with purpose” against the zone. We looked completely lost offensively with the exception of Kier in the final 15 or so minutes. Our entire offense revolved around Kier beating the zone off the dribble from the corner/wing. Without Kier, that’s a 30 point loss and you know it.

But hey, let’s give the team abounding praise for another moral victory. Hoorah.

We had a shot to tie the game in the final 5 seconds against one of the top teams in the A-10.

Does it sting, losing so many of these close games that we won last season? Sure. Losing sucks. There is no such thing as a moral victory.

But you and some others treat every f*cking loss like it’s the end of the world. Must be a miserable existence. I feel sorry for you.