MasonGrad01
Specialist
Monday night with the semester over? Don't expect much of a crowd. Be lucky to see 3,000
Game 12: Longwood University, Monday, December 12th, 7 PM, NO TV
- Thread starter Washingtonian
- Start date
Monday night with the semester over? Don't expect much of a crowd. Be lucky to see 3,000
OP
Washingtonian
Hall of Famer
- Thread Starter
- #22
Finals start the day after as well.
Kenpom: Mason favored by 19, 95% chance of winning.
RPIforecast: Mason by 22.4, 97% chance of winning.
The one thing Kenpom rates Longwood in "green" for is 3 point shooting (39.6%, 37th nationally). As mentioned in the Penn thread, that's something we've defensed well so far this year. But Longwood likely shoots a lot of them as their FT rate is awful (351st nationally).
BTW, rpiforecast now projects us as 9-9 in conference, 18-12 overall. vs kenpom (8-10, 18-13).
RPIforecast: Mason by 22.4, 97% chance of winning.
The one thing Kenpom rates Longwood in "green" for is 3 point shooting (39.6%, 37th nationally). As mentioned in the Penn thread, that's something we've defensed well so far this year. But Longwood likely shoots a lot of them as their FT rate is awful (351st nationally).
BTW, rpiforecast now projects us as 9-9 in conference, 18-12 overall. vs kenpom (8-10, 18-13).
phoenix-arizona
All-American
That would be good enough for a CBI/CIT appearance, if they still play those things.
I don't know - my son is studying for finals - but I am in an all day 2017 Account Executive Meeting All Day. The thought of going to Brion's Grille for Dinner and a beer and watching a Mason Hoops game sounds like the perfect way to end the day with my boys.
This would be a perfect time to remind students that cramming for finals actually hurts their performance
.
Goodguys 80
Bongwood 63
Bongwood 63
Stop giving me reasons to like Longwood
Pablo
Hall of Famer
http://gomason.com/news/2016/12/11/mens-basketball-mens-hoops-hosts-longwood-monday.aspx:
"A LOOK AT THE LANCERS (2-5, 0-0 BIG SOUTH)
The Lancers were picked ninth out of 10 teams in the 2016-17 Big South preseason poll. Longwood is 2-5 to start the year, most recently dropping a 113-58 contest at No. 10 Creighton Friday night in Omaha. The Lancers are 328 out of 351 Div. I teams in scoring defense (81.6 ppg allowed) and 282nd in scoring offense (68.6 ppg). Longwood's strength offensively is 3-point shooting, where the Lancers make 38.1 percent of their attempts as a team. Khris Lane paces the team with 15.0 ppg and is averaging a team-high 7.4 rebounds per contest. Darrion Allen averages 14.7 points while Isaiah Walton chips in 13.0 ppg and distributes 3.1 assists/contest."
"A LOOK AT THE LANCERS (2-5, 0-0 BIG SOUTH)
The Lancers were picked ninth out of 10 teams in the 2016-17 Big South preseason poll. Longwood is 2-5 to start the year, most recently dropping a 113-58 contest at No. 10 Creighton Friday night in Omaha. The Lancers are 328 out of 351 Div. I teams in scoring defense (81.6 ppg allowed) and 282nd in scoring offense (68.6 ppg). Longwood's strength offensively is 3-point shooting, where the Lancers make 38.1 percent of their attempts as a team. Khris Lane paces the team with 15.0 ppg and is averaging a team-high 7.4 rebounds per contest. Darrion Allen averages 14.7 points while Isaiah Walton chips in 13.0 ppg and distributes 3.1 assists/contest."
Pablo
Hall of Famer
http://sidearm.sites.s3.amazonaws.c...nts/2016/12/11/MASON_mbb_notes_LWU_121216.pdf:
"GET TO THE LINE, GET THE W
The Patriots are 6-0 when they make 15 or more free throws this season and 7-1 when they shoot 70 percent or better from the line. Mason excels at drawing fouls and generating free throws. The Patriots are 38th nationally in free throw attempts and 35th in free throws made. A total of 22.6 percent of the team’s points come from the free throw line (71st nationally), versus just 16.6 percent from their opponents (284th nationally). Mason is +44 (179-135) in free throws made over its opponents this season."
"GET TO THE LINE, GET THE W
The Patriots are 6-0 when they make 15 or more free throws this season and 7-1 when they shoot 70 percent or better from the line. Mason excels at drawing fouls and generating free throws. The Patriots are 38th nationally in free throw attempts and 35th in free throws made. A total of 22.6 percent of the team’s points come from the free throw line (71st nationally), versus just 16.6 percent from their opponents (284th nationally). Mason is +44 (179-135) in free throws made over its opponents this season."
Us - 83
Them - 70
OT
Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
Them - 70
OT
Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
You think there will be an AOII's there able to escort an alumni for the duration of the game?
There's not really a reason to think Longwood wins this game aside from the fact that college basketball is played by 18-22 year olds and shit happens. They are very, very bad:
- 325th nationally in offensive rating with 92.8 points per 100
- 323rd nationally in defensive rating with 110.4 points allowed per 100
- 339th nationally with a total rebound rate of 43.9%. Conversely, Mason is 24th in total rebound rate at 55.8%. Expect us to have a big advantage on the boards again.
- 329th nationally in turnover rate, turning the ball over on almost 20% of possessions. We don't turn our opponents over that often, but they'll probably help us out here.
- 350th (out of 351) in free throw rate at 21.7%. They don't get to the line and we don't put teams on the line.
- They've done all that while playing the 310th ranked strength of schedule, per College Basketball Reference's SOS number.
As others have mentioned, the only thing they don't suck at is three-point shooting. They might test our newly acquired ability to defend the perimeter, but that's the game Dave likes to play. He'll let you shoot if it means he keeps you out of the paint. It's a viable strategy unless you're playing the Warriors, which Longwood is not.
I see this game is a test of the team's mental focus more than anything. If we come out and handle our business it'll mean we're in a really good place. I'll be somewhat concerned if we screw around and let them hang in the game late. Losing this will be reason to revive the panic button thread.
- 325th nationally in offensive rating with 92.8 points per 100
- 323rd nationally in defensive rating with 110.4 points allowed per 100
- 339th nationally with a total rebound rate of 43.9%. Conversely, Mason is 24th in total rebound rate at 55.8%. Expect us to have a big advantage on the boards again.
- 329th nationally in turnover rate, turning the ball over on almost 20% of possessions. We don't turn our opponents over that often, but they'll probably help us out here.
- 350th (out of 351) in free throw rate at 21.7%. They don't get to the line and we don't put teams on the line.
- They've done all that while playing the 310th ranked strength of schedule, per College Basketball Reference's SOS number.
As others have mentioned, the only thing they don't suck at is three-point shooting. They might test our newly acquired ability to defend the perimeter, but that's the game Dave likes to play. He'll let you shoot if it means he keeps you out of the paint. It's a viable strategy unless you're playing the Warriors, which Longwood is not.
I see this game is a test of the team's mental focus more than anything. If we come out and handle our business it'll mean we're in a really good place. I'll be somewhat concerned if we screw around and let them hang in the game late. Losing this will be reason to revive the panic button thread.
Bricker
Starter
After enduring so much crap over the past few years, I literally can't even process numbers like these. Wow.
DAK
Preferred Walk-On
This is a pretty nice change, I must say. For the better part of my fandom (circa 2005), this has been a bugaboo for a lot of our teams. It's great to see our percentages up where they should be.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Vurbel
Hall of Famer
For those of us who endured the He**tt years we're due for a little fun. 6 OOC games in a row!
Pablo
Hall of Famer
LancersBlog @LancersBlog 12h12 hours ago
Longwood is riddled with disturbing stats but what should expectations be? http://lancersblog.com/2016/12/11/disturbing-statistics-surround-longwood-basketball…
Longwood is riddled with disturbing stats but what should expectations be? http://lancersblog.com/2016/12/11/disturbing-statistics-surround-longwood-basketball…
By George.
Starter
If I may quote Admiral Ackbar "It's a Trap!"
Classic trap game for a younger team that may be inexperienced with winning. Yes, we're on a 7 game winning streak about to face a statistically inferior team but nothing is guaranteed in college basketball. I could definitely see a sloppy first half, followed by a step on their throats type of second half.
Mason: 76
Smallwood: 63
Classic trap game for a younger team that may be inexperienced with winning. Yes, we're on a 7 game winning streak about to face a statistically inferior team but nothing is guaranteed in college basketball. I could definitely see a sloppy first half, followed by a step on their throats type of second half.
Mason: 76
Smallwood: 63
Top Donors
-
Patriotsince81$250.00 -
GSII$100.00 -
Old Man$100.00 -
hoopsjunkie75$50.00
-
GMU1983$50.00
Forum statistics
#MasonNation Network
Check out these great sites:
GiantKiller.co
ByGeorge
Expat Hoops
Fourth Estate
Doc Nix and the Green Machine
Bill Bride - DMV Sports Shots
Patriot Brew Blog/Newsletter
GiantKiller.co
ByGeorge
Expat Hoops
Fourth Estate
Doc Nix and the Green Machine
Bill Bride - DMV Sports Shots
Patriot Brew Blog/Newsletter