Can't find anything at the moment but I'm pretty sure the data conclusively shows fouling up 3 is a much stronger strategy given the odds. If you figure that even a bad shooting team has about a 30% chance of hitting a three, that seems much higher than successfully executing a series where you have to 1) make the first, 2) miss the second, 3) get an offensive rebound, and 4) get a putback. Like everything else it's not bulletproof, but I think the biggest risk is accidentally fouling a shooter, which a well-coached team shouldn't do.
This Penn State game should be fun. Penn State is near the bottom of the country in:
- Offensive rating (points per 100 possessions)
- Free throw rate
- Offensive rebound percentage
- Total rebound percentage
- True shooting and effective field goal %
This kinda fits with how Paulsen's teams play defense. Limit them to one shot each time down the court and keep them off the free throw line, and Penn State is a team that will struggle to put up points.
Penn State is near the top of the country in block rate and defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). Jalen, Marquise and Ian might be able to rack up some garbage points on the offensive boards. I'm predicting a rock fight where Jaire's shot gets blocked five times. Think we keep it close but Penn State sneaks away at the end.
