So, at this point, I feel relatively confident saying Paulsen has demonstrated that he can coach/develop guys at the a-10 level.
I am no longer willing to entertain the notion that this seasons results have been flukey. We are absolutely no worse than a mediocre A-10 team, which represents a substantial improvement in my opinion. I think it is perfectly rational to expect us to finish the season in the middle of the A-10 pack.
I further feel comfortable in saying that Paulsen has demonstrated that he can recruit at AT LEAST this level. The team is senior led, yes, but the progress of guys like Otis and Jaire leads me to believe that they will, by the time they are seniors, be replacement level guys for the seniors we have now. I see no reason why Paulsen would not be able to continue to recruit at that level, and his second recruiting (kier/Temara/wilson/boyd) class looks to me to be of a similar (at least) talent level.
The point is, after 1 and a half seasons, I firmly believe that Coach Paulsen's floor is "middle of the pack A-10", once he's got a full 4 year cycle of his guys in the program. Frankly, for me, that's good enough for now. A competent, competitive team that seems to have an idea of what they want to do, and a coach that seems to have an idea of how to get his team to do it is fine by me, even if they're maybe not the most talented bunch in the league.
The question, in my mind, is "what is his ceiling"? I don't have an answer for that just yet. His recruiting seems to be fairly level (Mar looks like a nice player, but I wouldn't say that he strikes me as an order of magnitude different from a guy like Boyd), but we haven't seen enough time pass to see what player development looks like under Paulsen over the course of a career. I don't think a 1 year bump can be extrapolated out over the course of a career.
Thoughts?
I have no concerns with Paulsen's ability to take this team to the top tier of the A10 and take us to the NCAA tourney on a regular basis. I am comfortable with what I see as the three key areas of coaching. He seems to be able to recruit, especially diamonds in the rough, and hopefully that translates as the team moves upward. He seems to be able to teach the kids to play well and to play tough as evidenced by how much the players and team seems to improve over time. He also seems to do the third leg of the coaching tripod, the Xs and Os aspect, very well. I am happy with what I have seen on all three fronts.
Where my concerns lie are with the support Paulsen can be provided by the AD. I fear 1 of 2 things might jeopardize how high we go in the Paulsen era or how long the era lasts. Here is how I envision it panning possibly panning out:
1. The AD can't provide adequate support and resources to Paulsen, et al. to compete with other A10 schools and all top tier D1 schools. I see this impacting in different ways, one of which includes recruiting could be impacted (no practice facility yet, mediocre practice facility is built in the formed of a shared RAC facility, etc.). Another way this could impact how far we can go is that we can't draw new or keep existing fans engaged. To get to the next level we need to win at home almost all of the time. EBA needs to have a real home court advantage. EBA itself and the game day experience needs to be kept modern and the AD need to step things up in marketing to new fans/donors and retaining existing fans/donors.
2. The other way I could see it going is that Paulsen becomes (too?) successful before our AD has turned the corner on fund raising/marketing/outreach. Maybe we really overachieve in one of the next couple of seasons, make a run in the tourney, Paulsen starts to get interest from higher level programs and we lose him prematurely because we can't make an interesting enough counter offer. If he does good enough, at some point we may never be able to keep up with a top tier program trying to take him, but it would be nice if we had the resources to win a round or two of the inevitable bidding war type of problem.
So, I think we are in great shape in the coaching department. It is the support the AD is capable of providing him that concerns me. Now, someone posted above about a recent article regarding the practice facility that is to be part of the RAC as well as athletics fundraising. That got me excited, so before I posted this I went and found those articles and read them (the ones in the recent Mason Spirit). While it is nice to see them talking about it more so than we had seen these topics discussed under the previous regime, I felt both were so short on specifics that I am concerned if anything is happening anytime soon. The practice facility article didn't provide anything concrete. Not much more than the information that was provided for the previous incarnation of a practice facility plan. The article sounded to me like they don't have anything in place yet, maybe even from a funding standpoint. Not even a start date for phase 1. Maybe that was just the way that article was written and things are actually more concrete. I really hope so. I am not 100% sold on the shared facility aspect either. While it should help on the access to practice areas front, will it be impressive enough to keep pace on the recruiting front? Will the space allocated to basketball remain dedicated to basketball, or will there be scope creep? That would be less likely with a dedicated practice facility. I understand it will likely be cheaper this way, but I also think donors would be less likely to give to a shared facility or give less. You probably lose naming rights value by doing that as well. The John Doe Basketball practice area inside of of the RAC doesn't sound nearly as good as The John Doe Basketball Practice Facility.
As for the article that was more about fundraising for athletics, my issue is the age old issue I have had with Mason and fund raising for athletics. It references the faster farther campaign (which has the words backwards if you ask me-it should be the farther faster campaign). I would like to see a dedicated campaign for the practice facility. Maybe they are raising funds from all donor types (those interested in academics, those interested in athletics, etc.) and then going to redirect them to athletics, hoping that they can get more for athletics. If that is the game they are playing, it might work once, but you could alienate academic donors by doing that. It was Mason playing similar shell games why I stopped trusting Mason a while back to allocate money as I intended it to be used when I donated it, so I started directing my money more specifically and finally cut back on the size of the donations (even prior to my recent athletics boycot...). If you want to raise money for an academic building, do a campaign specifically for that. If you want to raise money for an athletics facility, then do a campaign specifically for that. Let people know exactly what you are really raising the money for and then spend it on that. Don't obfuscate the purpose or mislead your donors.
I hope I am wrong, but, outside of the (excellent) coaching change, I am just not seeing a lot of progress on other fronts in the AD.
OK, I am getting down off my soapbox now.
Wow, I just noticed how much I typed. I must be really bored with this DR exercise waiting to get to the point where I have more to do...