A-10 Previews

[GMUgemini]

I’m not sure top 4 necessarily works. We need to beat the vcu's, Dayton’s and Richmonds of the world. In some cases twice. Task is very very tall but I’m hopeful and will continue to be even if vcu doesn’t go well on the 5th

We aren't going to have to beat any of these teams twice.

The good news is we get vcu, Richmond, SLU, Dayton, and URI at home and we only have to return games to vcu and Richmond. I think we're good enough to pull off some of these wins.

The real question is, are we good enough to avoid losing to any of the bottom half of the A-10 on the road? That includes games @La Salle, St, Joes, @Umass, @GW, and the dreaded last game of the season @Fordham.

The other real question to that is, if we avoid those losses, can we pull off wins @Duquesne and @Davidson?

You cobble together any 3 wins against vcu, Richmond, SLU, Dayton, and URI at home with no bad losses and wins @Duquesne and @Davidson and I think you've got yourself a bubble worthy resume.

 

[sleeperpick]

We aren't going to have to beat any of these teams twice.

The good news is we get vcu, Richmond, SLU, Dayton, and URI at home and we only have to return games to vcu and Richmond. I think we're good enough to pull off some of these wins.

The real question is, are we good enough to avoid losing to any of the bottom half of the A-10 on the road? That includes games @La Salle, St, Joes, @Umass, @GW, and the dreaded last game of the season @Fordham.

The other real question to that is, if we avoid those losses, can we pull off wins @Duquesne and @Davidson?

You cobble together any 3 wins against vcu, Richmond, SLU, Dayton, and URI at home with no bad losses and wins @Duquesne and @Davidson and I think you've got yourself a bubble worthy resume.

LOL the good feeling guy over predictive data. I'll stick with the math

Yes, your 14-4 hypothesis with beating vcu and Richmond once, while also beating SLU and URI and not losing to the bottom 9 teams will probably get us in. I hope you don't hop up from Phoenix to Reno/Vegas ever or I am not sure how you would get home.

 

[psyclone]

2.5 pt favs against a team with 2 win team proves the point I was trying to convey. W&M is not good. 190 Ken Pom

and I am unsure about your UCONN point. they are 7-3 and have beaten Florida and Miami and almost beat Xavier and Indiana... their two best players shot 10-40 against St Joe's. one of our conferences best wins so far

Sorry..my error. St Joe's had lost 8 in a row.

 

[psyclone]

FWIW, Kenpom has us finishing 9-9 in conference, behind 7 other teams and tied for 8th with St. Bonaventure, and 20-11 overall

 

[sleeperpick]

Sorry..my error. St Joe's had lost 8 in a row.

That makes a lot more sense. Spent entirely too much time thinking about that sentence lol

 

[mkaufman1]

FWIW, Kenpom has us finishing 9-9 in conference, behind 7 other teams and tied for 8th with St. Bonaventure, and 20-11 overall

I’ll go on record and say Mason finishes higher than 8th- I had them at 6th preseason, I’m sticking to that although I think they also have a chance to be higher.

 

[GMUgemini]

LOL the good feeling guy over predictive data. I'll stick with the math

Yes, your 14-4 hypothesis with beating vcu and Richmond once, while also beating SLU and URI and not losing to the bottom 9 teams will probably get us in. I hope you don't hop up from Phoenix to Reno/Vegas ever or I am not sure how you would get home.

a, the predictive data has a lot of tossup games that can go either way (as an example, I see 1 point losses to vcu at home, to La Salle on the road, to Richmond at home, St. Bonaventure on the road, a 1 point win to SLU at home; 3 point loss to Davidson on the road, and a 3 point win to Fordham on the road -- how confident are you that every single one of those 7 games are going to go the way of the algorithm?). B, I didn’t say it would happen I think we lose too many road games to finish above 10-8. I’ve been predicting 11-7 or 10-8 all season long.

oh and C, my best case scenario had us going 13-5, not 14-4. Two home losses and osses @vcu, Richmond and either Bona, Davidson or Duquesne. That’s still not going to happen either.

I’d be thrilled if we finished 11-7, happy at 10-8.

 

[Patriotsince81]

I'll wait and see what our record is at the end of the year.

 

[psyclone]

That makes a lot more sense. Spent entirely too much time thinking about that sentence lol

Hope you haven't put me on your "ignore" list because of my editing failure!

 

[sleeperpick]

Hope you haven't put me on your "ignore" list because of my editing failure!

I don’t ignore folks and I like your posts anyways. I’m not herndon

 

[psyclone]

vcu at Wichita St-espn2 at noon.

Vegasinsider has the rams as 5 pt underdogs; Kenpom as 4 pt underdogs

 

[psyclone]

vcu at Wichita St-espn2 at noon.

Vegasinsider has the rams as 5 pt underdogs; Kenpom as 4 pt underdogs

vcu loses by 10. Down double digits the bulk of the game. Very physical, lots of TOs and fouls. Wichita St is a very good defensive team and likely to be top 25 next week.

 

[GMUYoda]

Dusquene wins again over APSU to move to 10-0... think there's only a few undefeated teams left...

La Salle beats FDU
URI beats WKU in OT
GW loses to Harvard
SBU wins over MTSU

 

[Patriotsince81]

vcu at Wichita St-espn2 at noon.

Vegasinsider has the rams as 5 pt underdogs; Kenpom as 4 pt underdogs

I watched. vcu, as always, has many holes. Will we be able to take advantage of them? That is the question that remains to be answered. We'll find out on Jan 5.

 

[mkaufman1]

I watched. vcu, as always, has many holes. Will we be able to take advantage of them? That is the question that remains to be answered. We'll find out on Jan 5.

I don’t know what to make of them. They have a lot of talent but doesn’t seem like they’ve put it all together yet.

 

[JPgmuswim]

Dayton lost to Colorado by a 3 point buzzer beater in OT.

STL just beat Kansas St on the road.

 

[Herndon]

FWIW, Kenpom has us finishing 9-9 in conference, behind 7 other teams and tied for 8th with St. Bonaventure, and 20-11 overall

I tend to put a lot of stock in Kenpom, particularly later in the season. I wouldn't be surprised at this result, but I also wouldn't be surprised at 12-6

 

[GMUgemini]

I tend to put a lot of stock in Kenpom, particularly later in the season. I wouldn't be surprised at this result, but I also wouldn't be surprised at 12-6

After tonight, Warren Nolan now has us at 11-7 (was 9-9) before the game. There are a whole bunch of really close games in the algorithm. Now has us favored by 1 over vcu at home, 1 over @La Salle, 1 over Richmond at home (these were all predicted 1 point losses), and losing by 1 to SLU at home (this was a 1 point win).

 

[patriotchild]

Sill not a fan of our scheduling, but props to Paulsen and crew running through our non-conf schedule. Very positive sign going back to last year conf games where we didn’t drop games against teams we “should” beat. I don’t think we even saw a run like this under L.

if this trend continues, we should be able to chalk up 6 conference wins off the bat: GWx2 UMassx2 SJU and Fordham.

beat the teams we should beat and we have a very good chance of going 9+ wins in conference.

 

[Falco]

Sill not a fan of our scheduling, but props to Paulsen and crew running through our non-conf schedule. Very positive sign going back to last year conf games where we didn’t drop games against teams we “should” beat. I don’t think we even saw a run like this under L.

if this trend continues, we should be able to chalk up 6 conference wins off the bat: GWx2 UMassx2 SJU and Fordham.

beat the teams we should beat and we have a very good chance of going 9+ wins in conference.

Right now I’m happy with the schedule because I like the wins! But a win over TCU will be bitter sweet. A win over tcu means we probably could of scheduled a tougher OOC