This is all assuming Mason wins on Saturday vs Duquesne. If Mason loses, we are almost certainly the 4 seed.
If SJU and Davidson win out (they each have 2 games remaining), we are the 4 seed.
We need SJU and Davidson to each lose 1 of their 2 games for us to finish ahead of each of them (and both play Richmond).
SJU owns tie breaker vs us and Davidson in a 2 or 3 team tie, because they are 3-0. So they control.
We currently have tiebreaker over Davidson via their loss to SLU. We split with them, so 2 team tiebreak with them is decided by H2H winning percentage vs highest ranked common opponents. Currently we have the same .000 or 1.000 win % vs every other team except SLU, but if they beat Richmond, they will be .500 vs them and thus win the tiebreak as the tiebreaker criteria would not make it all the way down to % vs SLU.
If Davidson beats Richmond but loses other game, Richmond win for them won't matter since we will have better conference record.