2024-2025 Schedule Thread

[MasonSAE4]

Not to jinx it, but looking at the schedule it's nearly impossible to fumble top four. We'd have to lose five times at a minimum.

 

[Verdad]

Not to jinx it, but looking at the schedule it's nearly impossible to fumble top four. We'd have to lose five times at a minimum.

We are in very good shape for top 4. Currently, we could lose 3 straight games and still be top 4.

 

[undertherock]

Think bigger folks, if vcu loses at Dayton on Friday night we could still win the conference even if we lose to vcu

 

[Bsutterl]

Men's Bracketology: Purdue, Kentucky losses are Wisconsin's gain

Let's map out the domino effects in the bracket as we get closer to Selection Sunday. The Badgers are among the big winners from this past weekend.

www.espn.com

FEB 4 UPDATE

Mason AQ 12 seed vs 5 seed Ole Miss in Providence [East Bracket]

No other A10 teams mentioned

I would for sure be there for that game. Second school is Ole Miss. Beard's team is legit and would be a challenge for sure

 

[Verdad]

Think bigger folks, if vcu loses at Dayton on Friday night we could still win the conference even if we lose to vcu

 

[TweederGMU]

I would for sure be there for that game. Second school is Ole Miss. Beard's team is legit and would be a challenge for sure

Senior laiden team.... Guards are very good....Pedulla is a good one. Murrell and Murray are solid as well and can go off.

Don't know much about their Forwards but Ole Miss is a very good team, would be hard first game.

 

[mkaufman1]

We are in very good shape for top 4. Currently, we could lose 3 straight games and still be top 4.

I saw a chart that basically said we are like 99.2% top 4. If I had to guess we may slip a little bit in the future to the 2 or 3 seed but thats just my pessimism.

 

[MasonSAE4]

I saw a chart that basically said we are like 99.2% top 4. If I had to guess we may slip a little bit in the future to the 2 or 3 seed but thats just my pessimism.

Honestly I think there may be benefit falling to 2. There's a chance we get a team that has played two days in a row. If we finish top, we are guaranteed to get either 8/9 who have only played once. All depends on who finishes in those 8 and 9 spots. I don't want to see GW again.

 

[GMU79]

I saw a chart that basically said we are like 99.2% top 4. If I had to guess we may slip a little bit in the future to the 2 or 3 seed but thats just my pessimism.

Mine too. I'm afraid all our flaws will catch up to us eventually.

 

[psyclone]

Think bigger folks, if vcu loses at Dayton on Friday night we could still win the conference even if we lose to vcu

Back a few years ago, the NIT said that they would take all regular conference champions. Is that still true?

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

Back a few years ago, the NIT said that they would take all regular conference champions. Is that still true?

"In addition to the exempt teams, regular-season conference champions that are not otherwise selected to the NCAA championship can earn an automatic bid to the NIT as long as that regular-season champion has an average of 125 or better across the BPI, KPI, NET, KenPom, SOR, Torvik and WAB rankings."

NIT announces new team selection protocol and new committee members

The National Invitation Tournament Board of Managers has announced new qualification procedures for the 2025 NIT, which include bids going to 16 “exempt” teams, as well as others that may qualify automatically as regular-season conference champions.

www.ncaa.com

 

[Bsutterl]

Senior laiden team.... Guards are very good....Pedulla is a good one. Murrell and Murray are solid as well and can go off.

Don't know much about their Forwards but Ole Miss is a very good team, would be hard first game.

Dia when he is on is unstoppable. Brakefield makes them go and he comes off the bench. JuJu Murray can be lights out but struggles against physical comp. KD would actually match very well against him. Barnes, Klafke, Brown-Jones, and Dre Davis all contribute. Very very good defensively, long and athletic too. Pedulla makes some boneheaded mistakes though man its wild

 

[TweederGMU]

Dia when he is on is unstoppable. Brakefield makes them go and he comes off the bench. JuJu Murray can be lights out but struggles against physical comp. KD would actually match very well against him. Barnes, Klafke, Brown-Jones, and Dre Davis all contribute. Very very good defensively, long and athletic too. Pedulla makes some boneheaded mistakes though man its wild

Pedulla did that a ton at VT as well. Just dumb passes and TO's and mental lapses on defense.

Glad to see that hasn't changed

 

[psyclone]

NET rankings--games through Feb 1:

vcu #42
Mason #70
Dayton #73
Bona #84
St Joe #87
SLU #109
URI #112
Dav #127
GW #136
Loy #143
Duq #165
LaS #181
UMass #190
Ford #215
Rich #255

Update of Kenpom projections going into the weekend:

vcu 14-4 #35
Mason 14-4 #74
Dayton 11-7 #76
SLU 11-7 #111
St Joe 10-8 #88
Loyola 10-8 #123
St Bona 9-9 #96
all others below .500

 

[MasonSAE4]

Update of Kenpom projections going into the weekend:

vcu 14-4 #35
Mason 14-4 #74
Dayton 11-7 #76
SLU 11-7 #111
St Joe 10-8 #88
Loyola 10-8 #123
St Bona 9-9 #96
all others below .500

What game are we not favored in other than vcu and SLU?

 

[gmubrian]

What game are we not favored in other than vcu and SLU?

We are favored in all games except vcu. It doesn't assume we win all games we are favored in. It uses probabilities more as a whole to say we expect to lose a certain number. If we have a 75% chance to win the next four games, it assumes we will lose one of those four games. That isn't exactly how it works, but close enough to understand how we could be favored in all but one, but it assumes we will lose 3 more.

 

[psyclone]

What game are we not favored in other than vcu and SLU?

Actually, Kenpom favors us by 1 over SLU. Game-by-game we're only underdogs to vcu (by 8). But because we're less than 100% probability of winning the games we're favored by, the odds are that we'll lose 3 more games this season.

 

[MasonSAE4]

We are favored in all games except vcu. It doesn't assume we win all games we are favored in. It uses probabilities more as a whole to say we expect to lose a certain number. If we have a 75% chance to win the next four games, it assumes we will lose one of those four games. That isn't exactly how it works, but close enough to understand how we could be favored in all but one, but it assumes we will lose 3 more.

Ok yeah that makes sense

 

[psyclone]

Actually, Kenpom favors us by 1 over SLU. Game-by-game we're only underdogs to vcu (by 8). But because we're less than 100% probability of winning the games we're favored by, the odds are that we'll lose 3 more games this season.

Brian's explanation is clearer than mine, but basically makes the same point.

 

[mkaufman1]

I'll be curious to see how accurate this Kenpom projection is, but I definitely would not be surprised to see another loss or two by Mason in the final 8 games. Obviously I want to win every game.