2018-2019 Season Projections

[Mason2005]

I just wanted to take a quick moment to heap some additional praise on Otis. I don't think he got enough credit for the offensive performance he turned in last season (at least from outside of the die hard Mason fan community), particularly in conference play. His numbers were great, but not quite eye popping on the year as a whole, but in conference play he was incredible.

He averaged 19.8 PTS, 1.3 STL, 4.7 AST, and 3.6 TRB, on 14.7 FGA, while shooting 49% from 2 and 41.1% from 3 (on 5.9 attempts!). Also 83.5% from the free throw line on 4.7 attempts.

Per 40, he averaged 21.5 PTS and 5.1 AST, but considering their moderately slow pace last season, I think the per 100 possessions numbers are more indicative of his performance. Those numbers: 30.6 PTS, 2 STL, 7.3 AST, and 5.5 TRB, with an offensive rating of 116.7! (He actually has the 19th ranked career offensive rating so far at 109.31, in front of guys like JeQuan Lewis, DeAndrew Bembry, and E.C. Matthews. And just behind guys like Melvin Johnson, Chaz Williams, ShawnDre' Jones, and T.J. Cline. As a side note, Peyton Aldridge is the leader in career ORtg at a ridiculous 122.21).

Other advanced metrics that stand out (in conference play): 26.5 USG%, 26.7 AST%, 22.4 PER, 58.6 TS%, and 54.2 eFG%.

On the year as a whole, he played the 4th most minutes in the conference. Also was 8th in FG, 6th in FGA, 6th in FT, 4th in FT%, 6th in AST, 7th in PTS, 7th in MPG, 3rd in PTS produced, 6th in PTS produced per game, and 9th in offensive WS.

He has been remarkable, and has almost single-handedly pulled our program out of the darkness as an after-thought recruit without another D-1 offer. I can't thank and appreciate him enough, not only for what he's done on the court (and what I anticipate he will do in his final season), but for the inspirational leader and ambassador he has been for our program and school over these past three years. I know I'll cherish this last season, and can't wait to see what he and this group can accomplish together.

Thanks, O! LET'S F*CKING GOOOOOOO!!!

Wow, well said. I'm pumped for the season now.

Sent from my XT1575 using Tapatalk

 

[JBiggs]

Great post. Otis definitely has made a case to be on the Mt. Rushmore of Mason greats. I wonder if things go as we hope they will this year, whether Otis' numbers might level off a bit, simply because we may not need him to play so many minutes, create so much or take so many shots. Would be a great problem to have.

I think you're probably right, but I could see his efficiency staying up there. As you say, it would be a good thing to avoid him breaking down by March.

 

[gmujim92]

Hartwell is really good. Otis will be able to play 30 mpg instead of 37 and it won’t be an offensive shitshow when he’s on the bench.

Overall we are at least two deep with competent players at all 5 spots. It has been a long time since we could say that.

Can’t wait to get the season started.

 

[phoenix-arizona]

Top 4, NIT.

“Mason's fourth-place preseason position is its highest in the program's now six-year history in the Atlantic 10. The Patriots have improved their standing from preseason poll to postseason standings in each of Paulsen's first three seasons.

In the past two campaigns, the Patriots have risen an impressive five spots between the October poll and the March final standings (12th to 7th in 2016-17, 10th to 5th in 2017-18).”

 

[psyclone]

half of mason's games this year are on ESPN+ and out of market MLS games..figured it was worth the $4.99.

All but the away game against Richmond and the play-in game in the A-10 tournament (which I'm hoping we won't be in) are home games that will be on ESPN+ and I'll see those in-person. So I need more incentive than one away game to commit to 4.99 a month.

 

[psyclone]

Andy Katz has Kansas State as #10, Cincinnati as #29, and Davidson as #34. Opportunity knocks!

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...ky-no-1-andy-katzs-preseason-power-36-college

 

[JPgmuswim]

Andy Katz has Kansas State as #10, Cincinnati as #29, and Davidson as #34. Opportunity knocks!

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...ky-no-1-andy-katzs-preseason-power-36-college

It’s interesting that Katz has Davidson ranked so high when other publications have them finishing 3rd in our league. Grady is an absolute stud but as a team I think we are better than them.

 

[Washingtonian]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...cked-move-up-atlantic/?utm_term=.02479db8cf57

 

[Junkees9]

Ran across this today. Detailed analysis of every A-10 team. My apologies if it has already been posted.

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/atlantic-10-basketball-preview-2019

 

[psyclone]

Doesn't mean much now, but the KenPom ratings for the year are out. Not sure how they come up with numbers without any games being played, but we're now #117 and 8th in the A10 (St. Louis is first at #68). We finished last year at #220.

They have us winning all our home games and losing all our away games except GW. Also losing to Cincinnati on a neutral site.

 

[GMUgemini]

Doesn't mean much now, but the KenPom ratings for the year are out. Not sure how they come up with numbers without any games being played, but we're now #117 and 8th in the A10 (St. Louis is first at #68). We finished last year at #220.

They have us winning all our home games and losing all our away games except GW. Also losing to Cincinnati on a neutral site.

I'm pretty sure it has a lot to do with historical data, which is kind of meaningless right now. We get dinged a lot on how close our games were last year -- those last second buzzbeater wins could have gone either way.

 

[GSII]

These projections show me they either do not know Dave Paulsen's team or the pollsters value higher rated recruits on teams like st louis more than an experienced senior(s) on a team returning 100% of its players. Only program in the country to do so. It's debateable.

Fact is, DP has a big year ahead and on many fronts. His system is what it is. Can it propel this program back to the dance? That's really what it all boils down to. Lets roll!!

 

[gmujim92]

These projections show me they either do not know Dave Paulsen's team or the pollsters value higher rated recruits on teams like st louis more than an experienced senior(s) on a team returning 100% of its players. Only program in the country to do so. It's debateable.

Fact is, DP has a big year ahead and on many fronts. His system is what it is. Can it propel this program back to the dance? That's really what it all boils down to. Lets roll!!

We finished 16-17 last season and didn’t add any highly-ranked recruits. Most people aren’t putting in the effort to do any more analysis than that.

Of course, they don’t know that our two most successful teams (05-06 and 10-11) also had similar records the prior season with young teams that just needed more seasoning.

They’re all going to be very, very surprised come March.

 

[GMUSig03]

These projections show me they either do not know Dave Paulsen's team or the pollsters value higher rated recruits on teams like st louis more than an experienced senior(s) on a team returning 100% of its players. Only program in the country to do so. It's debateable.

Fact is, DP has a big year ahead and on many fronts. His system is what it is. Can it propel this program back to the dance? That's really what it all boils down to. Lets roll!!

I love pre-season positive GSII!

 

[JGwills]

We finished 16-17 last season and didn’t add any highly-ranked recruits. Most people aren’t putting in the effort to do any more analysis than that.

Of course, they don’t know that our two most successful teams (05-06 and 10-11) also had similar records the prior season with young teams that just needed more seasoning.

They’re all going to be very, very surprised come March.

05-06 and 10-11 are very good analogies due to the fact our team is more experienced without losing any production. Also I believe that people are underestimating the force multiplier factor that Rueter, and to a lesser extent freshmen will provide. We not only add talent, inside presence, etc; we also allow the productive players of last year to get some rest without the game getting out of hand.

 

[GMUgemini]

I mean, they've been pretty wrong the last two seasons, so let them be wrong about this one. No big deal.

 

[Washingtonian]

Got a UPS alert about a package coming tomorrow from Arkansas, which is where season tickets have been coming from in the past.

 

[sleeperpick]

Got a UPS alert about a package coming tomorrow from Arkansas, which is where season tickets have been coming from in the past.

email went out this morning saying we should get them by Saturday at the latest.

 

[GMUSig03]

Just make sure the package isn't addressed to George Soros, the Clintons or Obamas when it arrives

 

[gmubrian]

Just make sure the package isn't addressed to George Soros, the Clintons or Obamas when it arrives

Well, it is coming from Arkansas...