If we were tied for the last 10 minutes (or whatever amount) and then they scored one point it would go from being in the middle (50/50) to plunging to the bottom. So it always shows a huge plunge if you lose a lead at the end of the game, whether it was 1 point or 30. That is why I suggest that it is an exaggeration, at least in that scenario.
Totally get that, but our win probability had to be in the 90s with an 8-point lead and just over 2 minutes left. Didn’t take long for it to go to zero lol.
Agreed. The part above the 50/50 line is an accurate representation. It is the part below the line that is exaggerated in our SLU loss.
Also, if one enlarges the graph, kenpom shows the score along the midline after each basket and indeed shows an "x" for each miss (I think) during a possession (or maybe each empty possession). So the graph includes both a team's probability of winning and the current score at each point in the timeline. Often they will also indicate significant "runs" , although none for the SLU game. I'm guessing the run must need to involve a double-digit for one of the teams as SLU had a 9-0 run at the end of the game and we had a 9-0 run at the end of the first half.
Seems like 9-0 runs at the end of the game always beats a 9-0 run before halftime. Alas.
.8 is pretty crazy...I don't think I've ever been watching a game live where one went in with under 3 seconds, let alone 1. Still the 2019 Rangers were very different. As were the 2019 Capitals...
I understand your points above. My point can be demonstrated by looking at the last two possessions of the SLU game graph. We were tied at 62 (what I was calling 50/50 earlier but to be 100% accurate to Petey's point the graph shows it as %51.4 chance of SLU winning). We miss a shot and then it plummets down to 69.5% for SLU (whithout a single point scored). Then they score the 1 free throw and it goes to 100%. See my screnshot of that portion of the graph below. So a missed shot caused the graph to plummet almost halfway down and a single free throw causes it to plummet the rest of the way. Whereas, it took 8 points to go from the top of the graph where we lead 62 -54 to where we are tied.
I wasn't saying it doesn't make sense. I was just saying if you are using the graph to make a point that we lost a big lead which was Petey's initial point that he was using the graphs to back up. He is right. But in this (SLU) case the graph exaggerates how badly we blew a lead. I wouldn't call losing a tie game by one point in the last few seconds blowing a lead but the graph makes it look that way. Thus, it exaggerates it.
that isn't how I read the graph
Kenpom's role levels are more about usage rate than minutes. Usage rate is how many possessions a player "uses" while he's in the game, defined as ending the possession in either a field goal attempt, free throws, or a turnover. So what that number is actually telling you is that Ticket is fairly passive, and Justyn is more aggressive. The number is calculated using only possessions the player is on the floor, so time missed won't factor into it.
Thanks!
I know that Charleston did this for incoming freshmen this past year.
