Kenner

[By George.]

I wish Greene and Calixte were playing in Kenner. I have heard glowing reviews about Greene as a confident scorer already in open gym. We should not expect him to ride the bench. I saw both him and Calixte at Kenner. They were watching AJ's game with Otis (hopefully Otis was keeping notes on Cowtin, that's a well sized PG). Judging size alone, Cali looks the part.

 

[MasonGrad01]

I have only seen the highlights of AJ, but from the write ups it sounds like he plays a lot like Anthony Davis. Extremely athletic and isn't afraid to shoot the ball.
Also sounds like Karl-Anthony Towns to me.

Oh jesus. OK I'm done with this thread. See you guys in October.

 

[JBiggs]

I don't see it. A lot of scoring to replace with Moore/Jenkins gone and you're not doing that with Kier, Wilson, and Temara/Relvao/Calixte on the floor at the same time. Too much talent on bench.

EDIT: sorry, I had pasted the wrong advanced table in. It's correct now.

It's obviously debatable at this point. I wouldn't put any money on a lineup, but it's what my guess would be for opening night. I think Otis, Jaire, and AJ can handle a pretty decent offensive output, with some efficient catch-and-shoot scoring from Kier, and some easy putbacks from a big like Relvao.

I was curious, so I went and looked at some numbers from conference play last season, and now I'm convinced Newman should start over Kier. One of the things that really stood out to me was Kier's very high turnover percentage (especially alarming, given his very low usage rate). I didn't realize it was that bad. Mari's is the lowest on the team, and his offensive rating from conference play is off the charts (129.9), coupled with the highest defensive rating of any returning player. He doesn't rebound as effectively as Kier or Boyd, but he's a better distributor, given his assist percentage, and his eFG% is a ridiculous 59.8% (also the highest returning TS%). Everything is pointing to Newman.

Here are the offensive and defensive ratings of the returning players (from conference play):

Per 100 Possessions                                                                                                                             
Rk               Player  G  MP  FG  FGA  FG%  2P  2PA  2P%  3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA  FT%  TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF   PTS  ORtg  DRtg
5    Otis Livingston II 18 626 7.1 18.6 .379 5.2 12.5 .419 1.8 6.2 .299 6.6 7.5 .878  5.9 4.7 1.7 0.0 3.7 2.8  22.6 103.7 108.6
6          Jaire Grayer 18 571 7.9 18.3 .429 3.8  9.4 .409 4.0 9.0 .449 2.4 2.9 .828 11.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 2.2 4.4  22.1 115.2 106.3
7        Karmari Newman 15 235 7.1 14.9 .475 3.4  5.4 .636 3.7 9.5 .385 2.4 2.7 .909  3.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 1.2 3.7  20.3 129.9 112.4
8              Ian Boyd 15 303 7.0 16.5 .425 5.3 10.6 .500 1.7 5.9 .290 4.0 5.5 .724  7.0 1.5 2.1 0.8 3.0 7.0  19.7 104.2 107.9
9           Justin Kier 17 496 3.5  7.2 .484 2.5  5.0 .512 0.9 2.2 .421 2.3 3.1 .741  7.3 2.2 1.9 0.2 3.6 3.9  10.2  92.7 107.1
11          Troy Temara 15 101 3.4  8.5 .400 3.4  8.5 .400 0.0      0.0 1.7 5.1 .333  9.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 4.6 9.1   8.5  70.4 109.9
12        Daniel Relvao 14  90 3.2  7.0 .455 3.2  7.0 .455 0.0      0.0 1.3 2.6 .500 14.1 0.6 0.6 1.3 4.5 9.6   7.7  80.1 106.6

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 7/17/2017.

And advanced metrics (from conference play):

Rk               Player  G  MP  PER  TS% eFG% 3PAr  FTr PProd ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV%  USG%  OWS DWS   WS WS/40
2          Jaire Grayer 18 571 16.9 .562 .538 .489 .159   204  7.1 14.3 10.9  3.8  1.4  2.1 10.1  19.1  1.2 0.6  1.7  .122
4    Otis Livingston II 18 626 14.0 .508 .429 .330 .404   242  0.8 10.1  5.7 15.8  1.7  0.0 14.2  22.6  0.8 0.5  1.3  .083
5        Karmari Newman 15 235 14.5 .627 .598 .639 .180    73  1.0  5.9  3.6  9.1  0.7  0.0  7.0  15.2  0.6 0.1  0.7  .120
6              Ian Boyd 15 303 12.7 .516 .477 .356 .333   101  7.1  6.6  6.8  5.1  2.1  1.3 13.7  19.3  0.3 0.3  0.6  .080
7           Justin Kier 17 496  7.4 .588 .548 .306 .435    86  1.2 12.4  7.1  6.6  1.9  0.4 29.3  10.7  0.0 0.5  0.5  .041
10        Daniel Relvao 14  90  4.7 .465 .455 .000 .364    15 10.6 16.5 13.7  1.9  0.6  2.3 35.2  11.1 -0.1 0.1  0.0  .014
13          Troy Temara 15 101  1.1 .389 .400 .000 .600    17  7.1 10.5  8.9  3.4  0.6  1.0 29.3  13.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -.028

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 7/17/2017.

 

[Falco]

Oh jesus. OK I'm done with this thread. See you guys in October.

lol not saying he is as good lol, similar style. but go ahead and be a jerk

 

[JimP]

EDIT: sorry, I had pasted the wrong advanced table in. It's correct now.

It's obviously debatable at this point. I wouldn't put any money on a lineup, but it's what my guess would be for opening night. I think Otis, Jaire, and AJ can handle a pretty decent offensive output, with some efficient catch-and-shoot scoring from Kier, and some easy putbacks from a big like Relvao.

I was curious, so I went and looked at some numbers from conference play last season, and now I'm convinced Newman should start over Kier. One of the things that really stood out to me was Kier's very high turnover percentage (especially alarming, given his very low usage rate). I didn't realize it was that bad. Mari's is the lowest on the team, and his offensive rating from conference play is off the charts (129.9), coupled with the highest defensive rating of any returning player. He doesn't rebound as effectively as Kier or Boyd, but he's a better distributor, given his assist percentage, and his eFG% is a ridiculous 59.8% (also the highest returning TS%). Everything is pointing to Newman.

Here are the offensive and defensive ratings of the returning players (from conference play):

Rk               Player  G  MP  FG  FGA  FG%  2P  2PA  2P%  3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA  FT%  TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF   PTS  ORtg  DRtg
5    Otis Livingston II 18 626 7.1 18.6 .379 5.2 12.5 .419 1.8 6.2 .299 6.6 7.5 .878  5.9 4.7 1.7 0.0 3.7 2.8  22.6 103.7 108.6
6          Jaire Grayer 18 571 7.9 18.3 .429 3.8  9.4 .409 4.0 9.0 .449 2.4 2.9 .828 11.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 2.2 4.4  22.1 115.2 106.3
7        Karmari Newman 15 235 7.1 14.9 .475 3.4  5.4 .636 3.7 9.5 .385 2.4 2.7 .909  3.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 1.2 3.7  20.3 129.9 112.4
8              Ian Boyd 15 303 7.0 16.5 .425 5.3 10.6 .500 1.7 5.9 .290 4.0 5.5 .724  7.0 1.5 2.1 0.8 3.0 7.0  19.7 104.2 107.9
9           Justin Kier 17 496 3.5  7.2 .484 2.5  5.0 .512 0.9 2.2 .421 2.3 3.1 .741  7.3 2.2 1.9 0.2 3.6 3.9  10.2  92.7 107.1
11          Troy Temara 15 101 3.4  8.5 .400 3.4  8.5 .400 0.0      0.0 1.7 5.1 .333  9.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 4.6 9.1   8.5  70.4 109.9
12        Daniel Relvao 14  90 3.2  7.0 .455 3.2  7.0 .455 0.0      0.0 1.3 2.6 .500 14.1 0.6 0.6 1.3 4.5 9.6   7.7  80.1 106.6

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 7/17/2017.

And advanced metrics (from conference play):

Rk               Player  G  MP  PER  TS% eFG% 3PAr  FTr PProd ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV%  USG%  OWS DWS   WS WS/40
2          Jaire Grayer 18 571 16.9 .562 .538 .489 .159   204  7.1 14.3 10.9  3.8  1.4  2.1 10.1  19.1  1.2 0.6  1.7  .122
4    Otis Livingston II 18 626 14.0 .508 .429 .330 .404   242  0.8 10.1  5.7 15.8  1.7  0.0 14.2  22.6  0.8 0.5  1.3  .083
5        Karmari Newman 15 235 14.5 .627 .598 .639 .180    73  1.0  5.9  3.6  9.1  0.7  0.0  7.0  15.2  0.6 0.1  0.7  .120
6              Ian Boyd 15 303 12.7 .516 .477 .356 .333   101  7.1  6.6  6.8  5.1  2.1  1.3 13.7  19.3  0.3 0.3  0.6  .080
7           Justin Kier 17 496  7.4 .588 .548 .306 .435    86  1.2 12.4  7.1  6.6  1.9  0.4 29.3  10.7  0.0 0.5  0.5  .041
10        Daniel Relvao 14  90  4.7 .465 .455 .000 .364    15 10.6 16.5 13.7  1.9  0.6  2.3 35.2  11.1 -0.1 0.1  0.0  .014
13          Troy Temara 15 101  1.1 .389 .400 .000 .600    17  7.1 10.5  8.9  3.4  0.6  1.0 29.3  13.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -.028

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 7/17/2017.

Am I reading this wrong? PPG during conference play seems awfully high.

 

[JBiggs]

Am I reading this wrong? PPG during conference play seems awfully high.

Per 100 possessions. Sorry, I'll add that clarifier, which shows up in the original table.

 

[JimP]

Per 100 possessions. Sorry, I'll add that clarifier, which shows up in the original table.

Ah - I see. I should have read it more closely.

 

[gmutom]

We obviously have a number of options at the 1-4 positions, but I don't think there's a returning player on our roster outside of Otis with a bigger drive or desire to get better than Ian Boyd. Regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench, this kid will fight for every minute he can get on the floor.

 

[Patriot8]

EDIT: sorry, I had pasted the wrong advanced table in. It's correct now.

It's obviously debatable at this point. I wouldn't put any money on a lineup, but it's what my guess would be for opening night. I think Otis, Jaire, and AJ can handle a pretty decent offensive output, with some efficient catch-and-shoot scoring from Kier, and some easy putbacks from a big like Relvao.

I was curious, so I went and looked at some numbers from conference play last season, and now I'm convinced Newman should start over Kier. One of the things that really stood out to me was Kier's very high turnover percentage (especially alarming, given his very low usage rate). I didn't realize it was that bad. Mari's is the lowest on the team, and his offensive rating from conference play is off the charts (129.9), coupled with the highest defensive rating of any returning player. He doesn't rebound as effectively as Kier or Boyd, but he's a better distributor, given his assist percentage, and his eFG% is a ridiculous 59.8% (also the highest returning TS%). Everything is pointing to Newman.

Here are the offensive and defensive ratings of the returning players (from conference play):

Per 100 Possessions                                                                                                                          
Rk               Player  G  MP  FG  FGA  FG%  2P  2PA  2P%  3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA  FT%  TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF   PTS  ORtg  DRtg
5    Otis Livingston II 18 626 7.1 18.6 .379 5.2 12.5 .419 1.8 6.2 .299 6.6 7.5 .878  5.9 4.7 1.7 0.0 3.7 2.8  22.6 103.7 108.6
6          Jaire Grayer 18 571 7.9 18.3 .429 3.8  9.4 .409 4.0 9.0 .449 2.4 2.9 .828 11.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 2.2 4.4  22.1 115.2 106.3
7        Karmari Newman 15 235 7.1 14.9 .475 3.4  5.4 .636 3.7 9.5 .385 2.4 2.7 .909  3.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 1.2 3.7  20.3 129.9 112.4
8              Ian Boyd 15 303 7.0 16.5 .425 5.3 10.6 .500 1.7 5.9 .290 4.0 5.5 .724  7.0 1.5 2.1 0.8 3.0 7.0  19.7 104.2 107.9
9           Justin Kier 17 496 3.5  7.2 .484 2.5  5.0 .512 0.9 2.2 .421 2.3 3.1 .741  7.3 2.2 1.9 0.2 3.6 3.9  10.2  92.7 107.1
11          Troy Temara 15 101 3.4  8.5 .400 3.4  8.5 .400 0.0      0.0 1.7 5.1 .333  9.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 4.6 9.1   8.5  70.4 109.9
12        Daniel Relvao 14  90 3.2  7.0 .455 3.2  7.0 .455 0.0      0.0 1.3 2.6 .500 14.1 0.6 0.6 1.3 4.5 9.6   7.7  80.1 106.6

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 7/17/2017.

And advanced metrics (from conference play):

Rk               Player  G  MP  PER  TS% eFG% 3PAr  FTr PProd ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV%  USG%  OWS DWS   WS WS/40
2          Jaire Grayer 18 571 16.9 .562 .538 .489 .159   204  7.1 14.3 10.9  3.8  1.4  2.1 10.1  19.1  1.2 0.6  1.7  .122
4    Otis Livingston II 18 626 14.0 .508 .429 .330 .404   242  0.8 10.1  5.7 15.8  1.7  0.0 14.2  22.6  0.8 0.5  1.3  .083
5        Karmari Newman 15 235 14.5 .627 .598 .639 .180    73  1.0  5.9  3.6  9.1  0.7  0.0  7.0  15.2  0.6 0.1  0.7  .120
6              Ian Boyd 15 303 12.7 .516 .477 .356 .333   101  7.1  6.6  6.8  5.1  2.1  1.3 13.7  19.3  0.3 0.3  0.6  .080
7           Justin Kier 17 496  7.4 .588 .548 .306 .435    86  1.2 12.4  7.1  6.6  1.9  0.4 29.3  10.7  0.0 0.5  0.5  .041
10        Daniel Relvao 14  90  4.7 .465 .455 .000 .364    15 10.6 16.5 13.7  1.9  0.6  2.3 35.2  11.1 -0.1 0.1  0.0  .014
13          Troy Temara 15 101  1.1 .389 .400 .000 .600    17  7.1 10.5  8.9  3.4  0.6  1.0 29.3  13.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -.028

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 7/17/2017.

The debate between Boyd, Kier, and Newman is pretty intriguing because all 3 guys are very different.

It will be interesting to see what Kier's shot looks like. I still believe he is the best ball handler out of the 3; DP really likes to have 2 primary ball handlers on the floor, and what he lacks in explosion and raw athleticism, he makes up for with poise and knowledge of the game.

I think the Kier/Newman turnover percentage is a bit misleading, simply because Newman was more of a catch and shoot guy and Kier was charged with running the offense at times.

Mari is by far our best returning on-ball defender, and he showed flashes of being able to get to, and finish a the rim last year. I'd love to see him do more of that, given his ability at the free throw line. His combination of shooting ability, and quickness makes him a pretty tough guy to guard.

I don't really know what to make of Boyd right now. Physically he's a man among boys, and he had stretches last year where he showed the potential to be an elite player, but I never felt like he found his full confidence on offense, which kind of reminds me of Grayer's freshman year. Also, because of his physical strength, he was asked to play out of position frequently, so that probably took a toll on him.

You can make a very serious case for any of these guys, but I am of the opinion that it's Kier's job to start the season. Having two sophomores like Boyd and Newman potentially coming off the bench is an amazing feat given where this program was just a short time ago.

Go Mason

 

[MasonFanatic]

Yeah, even if they're not starting, I have a feeling Boyd and Newman are going to play a lot of minutes.

 

[gmujim92]

Yeah, even if they're not starting, I have a feeling Boyd and Newman are going to play a lot of minutes.

And the competition for those minutes will make everybody better, which is the bottom line.

In just three recruiting classes, our staff has taken a roster with one A-10 caliber backcourt player (Marquise) and stocked it with five guards -- hopefully, soon to be six -- who have proven they belong on this level.

That's some great recruiting, especially since they were digging out of the basement and had to find kids who didn't have a bunch of other great offers.

It really is remarkable when you think about it.

 

[MasonGrad01]

And the competition for those minutes will make everybody better, which is the bottom line.

...Or create player transfers

 

[Mason2005]

...Or create player transfers

Transfers are just part of the college landscape now, no program is immune to it.

Sent from my XT1575 using Tapatalk

 

[Falco]

Its going to be a long 4 months.

 

[mkaufman1]

Great analysis going on- I agree with what everyone is saying. Each guard, while having to fight for minutes, brings a little something different to the floor. Whether its ballhandling, bruising and getting to the rim, or just being a sniper shooter, theres various skillsets for DP to pick from on offense. Add to the fact that none of the guards have to play out of position now and can focus on most likely a better matchup defensively, things are aligning up nicely. Hopefully everyone will make the most of their playing time to contribute on the floor.

I can't wait to see it all come to form. Paulsen has truly done a remarkable job of restocking the roster with talent in such a short period of time and skillsets that can compete in the A10. The team is still young going into year 3, but I think we can all safely agree that year 4 is when we really expect things to take off.

 

[GMUSig03]

Curt Smith (AJ and Mar) playing Higher Level (Otis, Jaire, and sometimes Bryon and Will Thomas) at 1pm on Sunday July 30th - I'm definitely planning on going, let me know if anyone else is and wants to grab lunch/drinks beforehand

 

[MasonCrew]

Curt Smith (AJ and Mar) playing Higher Level (Otis, Jaire, and sometimes Bryon and Will Thomas) at 1pm on Sunday July 30th - I'm definitely planning on going, let me know if anyone else is and wants to grab lunch/drinks beforehand

I might be down. How much are tickets? Slide into my DMs.

 

[gmujim92]

I might be down. How much are tickets? Slide into my DMs.

The best price ever. Zero dollars and zero cents.

 

[gmujim92]

Great analysis going on- I agree with what everyone is saying. Each guard, while having to fight for minutes, brings a little something different to the floor. Whether its ballhandling, bruising and getting to the rim, or just being a sniper shooter, theres various skillsets for DP to pick from on offense. Add to the fact that none of the guards have to play out of position now and can focus on most likely a better matchup defensively, things are aligning up nicely. Hopefully everyone will make the most of their playing time to contribute on the floor.

I can't see it all come to form. Paulsen has truly done a remarkable job of restocking the roster with talent in such a short period of time and skillsets that can compete in the A10. The team is still young going into year 3, but I think we can all safely agree that year 4 is when we really expect things to take off.

There's just something that happens when you hire a coach who knows what he is doing -- how to build a team, what he needs from each player, how all the pieces fit together -- instead of just recruiting elite athletes and expecting them to do things they've never proven capable of doing.

Hewitt has a tremendous eye for pure athletic talent, as evidenced by the number of his guys playing for good money either in the NBA or overseas.

But in terms of roster building, he was a nightmare.

None of what has happened over the past two years was an accident. Dave has a plan and is methodically executing it.

 

[99 Patriot]

The more I read all of this, the more I think AJ sees a lot more time at the 5 then we think. I could certainly be wrong, but we saw last year that we are not afraid to play our best players, even if they're undersized. If we aren't getting production from our traditional bigs, I think we go small and take our chances. Grayer and Kier are both great rebounders, so I think we hold our own on the glass and can hopefully punish some slow-footed defenders at the other end.

That said, I'll still say Daniel starts, but probably doesn't crack more than 12-15 minutes most nights. Sort of like James Edwards back in the day, or Pachulia in Golden State this past year.