Game 30: AT George Washington University, Tuesday, March 1st, 8 PM, CSN

[G M U]

Come on, leim, everybody here has justifiably applauded DP for filling the roster as quickly as he did. Otis and Grayer look like steals at this point, especially so late in the process; but that doesn't change the reality that several of those players were reaches simply to get bodies in here. Nobody is to blame other than Dave's predecessor for leaving us in this situation.

The good news, as has also been pointed out many times, is that the returning players will have ample opportunities to compete for time with the new guys coming in. That will make everyone work harder, which is only going to make us better on both ends of the floor.

I also applaud Paulsen for the late signings but do any of you predict that maybe 1 or 2 players might transfer in the coming years? We needed players to fill voids now but may not need them in the future, especially given the talent we have coming in next season. I can see potentially 2 of our current freshmen transferring.

 

[GSII]

St. Josesph's is 13th in the league in opponents TO's, Davidson and GW are tied for 11th.

Imagine if we were 11th? That equals 4 more wins.

 

[Raider_SPE]

With a veteran team and one of the best defensive coaches in the country, Virginia has forced only 351 turnovers through its first 29 games -- an average of 12.1 per game.

According to the NCAA website, that ranks 235th out of 346 schools.

Jim, This Virginia team also leads the country in fewest possessions per game, so that 12.1 turnovers per game is not as bad as it would seem.

That puts that at about #77 in forced turnovers per possession. (they were #256 last year)

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/opponent-turnovers-per-possession

Edit: and I just looked at our ranking: DFL by about almost 3 full % points. That is insane. No team has been below 11% in . . . well, I had to stop clicking on different years.

 

[gmujim92]

Jim, This Virginia team also leads the country in fewest possessions per game, so that 12.1 turnovers per game is not as bad as it would seem.

That puts that at about #77 in forced turnovers per possession. (they were #256 last year)

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/opponent-turnovers-per-possession

Edit: and I just looked at our ranking: DFL by about almost 3 full % points. That is insane. No team has been below 11% in . . . well, I had to stop clicking on different years.

I'm not arguing that we're a good, or even competent, defensive team right now.

What I will continue to challenge is the insistence from anybody who has never played or coached basketball above the HS level that our coach's defensive scheme/system/philosophy is flawed and must be changed.

We haven't come close to giving DP enough time, or accumulated enough data, to draw conclusions either way.

It's frankly a stupid discussion, and I'm the most stupid for getting sucked into it.

Come back and talk to me in 3 years. We might still not be forcing many turnovers, but if we are still a bad defensive team, I will be shocked.

 

[Raider_SPE]

Is it a stupid discussion, maybe, but I find it interesting. A trend is a trend no matter what conference his teams have been in.

Even though I took slight issue with the UVA turnover stat, I think you are right. Limiting opponents effective FG % like Virginia does must be the model for Mason if Paulsen's scheme (flawed or not) remains the same. I am looking forward to watching this progression happen. As a defense first guy, I actually catch myself watching the defensive rotations more than the offense at times.

FWIW, I really like Paulsen and think he will be great for the program. I love to hear him barking instructions over Rohland on the radio, as well as the constant teaching he does on the sidelines.

 

[DAK]

You can play stats to favor anything you want to see. Offensively, I think it's the basics: turn the ball over less than the other guy and you'll be in shape...and also hit your free throws.

Defensively, we need to get better. I know the energy and passion will be there with a DP coached team. You don't need to run HAVOC to win. I've got my money on DP knowing more than me, so I'm trusting he coaches to his team. Hopefully once guys get more experience and we get more of Dave's guys in here we'll see us turn a corner.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[DAK]

Otis and Grayer are legit. Abrams can go either way and Dixon is a bench player.

We say we have studs coming in every year and never know who will hit or not. I really hope it's someone over 6'7" because outside of Jenkins we are starving for talent down low.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GSII]

You can play stats to favor anything you want to see.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Still waiting for Jim to tell me which coaches have won a national title with a 312 ranked forced turnover stat. Very curious.

 

[GMUSig03]

Still waiting for Jim to tell me which coaches have won a national title with a 312 ranked forced turnover stat. Very curious.

GSII is back - always something to be negative about!

Do you think Paulsen was coaching Bucknell to be the best team that roster could be, or to win a national championship? If it's the former, then your question is moot. Which is exactly why Jim likely hasn't responded.

 

[GSII]

Joe,
Im not being negative. Its an interesting question. The question I put on the table is can we be a top a10 team, and win ncaa tourney games with such a low forced turnover rate. Btw, im using DP's highest rank at Bucknell (312) instead of our putrid last place for this year in entire ncaa. Jim calmed my fear by saying plenty of coaches have won a national title by playing with low forced turnover #. Just want to know who.

 

[GMUSig03]

Joe,
Im not being negative. Its an interesting question. The question I put on the table is can we be a top a10 team, and win ncaa tourney games with such a low forced turnover rate. Btw, im using DP's highest rank at Bucknell (312) instead of our putrid last place for this year in entire ncaa. Jim calmed my fear by saying plenty of coaches have won a national title by playing with low forced turnover #. Just want to know who.

I'm just messing with you and I hear you, I think all of us raise an eyebrow at the forced TO #'s, but at this point I don't think the rest of us are willing to get bogged down on it because there are so many other things that are obvious improvements, trending in the right direction, and a basic assumption that DP knows more than all of us combined about how to coach - at least until proven otherwise

 

[GMUSig03]

I'm just messing with you and I hear you, I think all of us raise an eyebrow at the forced TO #'s, but at this point I don't think the rest of us are willing to get bogged down on it because there are so many other things that are obvious improvements, trending in the right direction, and a basic assumption that DP knows more than all of us combined about how to coach - at least until proven otherwise

To play devil's advocate though, I will say that a lot of Miami fans expressed eerily similar concerns about Al Golden's defense and their lack of aggression. The response was trust Al Golden, he's never had Miami athletes before, he knows more than we all do. Unfortunately, eventually Golden proved otherwise and it cost him his job.

 

[GSII]

There is no way to base anything off this year b/c we don't have the talent. However, when we do, I expect our defense to be just a tad more diverse and innovative. After all, this is Mason right?

 

[Vurbel]

I remember a time when GW and JMU played annually on President's Day.

For all you WWE fans making the trip to DC tonight, GW played the HHH theme song on Saturday against vcu. I've been to a lot of different college hoops venues and I am not sure I've ever heard HHH's theme song used.

Virginia Tech also uses ECW wrestler Sandman's entrance music.

 

[Patriotsince81]

Joe,
Im not being negative. Its an interesting question. The question I put on the table is can we be a top a10 team, and win ncaa tourney games with such a low forced turnover rate. Btw, im using DP's highest rank at Bucknell (312) instead of our putrid last place for this year in entire ncaa. Jim calmed my fear by saying plenty of coaches have won a national title by playing with low forced turnover #. Just want to know who.

I think it's possible to compete and win at the highest level without forcing a large number of turnovers. More important is the turnover differential. Right now we're at a -5.60 turnover differential which is pretty sad. Potential for 11 - 16 point deficit to make up assuming both teams shoot the same percentage. I would also look at the shooting percentage we allow and the percentage of offensive rebounds we give up as important stats to consider in determining the effectiveness of a defense. Good question & discussion though.

 

[Petey Buckets]

I was bored last night so I ran a correlation between your opponent's turnover rate per 100 possessions and their offensive rating per 100 possessions for the 2015-2016 season. I'm at work now so I don't have access to it, but it was weaker than I expected with an r-squared value of 0.12.

Every defense that forces a ton of turnovers also holds its opponents to a very low offensive rating, but there are also plenty of defenses that are very good without forcing a ton of turnovers. In particular, Cal, Michigan State, Purdue, and Vanderbilt all hold opponents to under 98 points per 100 possessions despite being in the bottom ten of the entire NCAA in opponent turnover rate.

This all reinforces what Jim has been saying - yes, turnovers are great, but you can be very good defensively without them. I don't think it's a silly discussion though, and it's still worth monitoring into the future, because Paulsen-led teams have been so extreme at not forcing turnovers. We're not going to draw any definitive conclusions here, but the boards exist because it's fun to quibble about this stuff.

 

[JimP]

Well said Petey. As a fan, I'm satisfied with Paulsen's first season at Mason no matter how the next week goes.

Anytime your team is dead last in the entire NCAA in a statistical category it's certainly fair game for discussion though. Paulsen is getting all the W's he can out of this group - but it's appropriate to ask if so few TO's forced and such a lousy TO differential is good for the future.

 

[ephoops]

Right now we're at a -5.60 turnover differential which is pretty sad. Potential for 11 - 16 point deficit to make up assuming both teams shoot the same percentage.

The -5.6 differential in turnovers does not equate to an 11 - 16 point deficit.

A better way to think about the TO differential is on a points-per-possession basis. Based on Mason's efficiency stats, the point deficit is closer to 6 points.

Those 6 points are still significant, but not nearly as bad as the 11 -1 6 points in your analysis.