Game 3, Northern Iowa, Nov 16th, 4 PM, NO TV

[MasonFanatic]

KenPom has us winning 67-63, with a 68% chance to win. He has us ranked 104 and UNI 115

 

[JBiggs]

Here is their rotation from their loss to Ohio, with last year's stats against us in parentheticals.

Starters:
G - Wes Washpun, SO - 6-1, 175 (DNP - sat out after transfer from Tennessee)
G - Deon Mitchell, JR - 6-1, 194 (6pts, 2rbs, 5ast, 1stl, 2 TOs)
G - Matt Bohannon, SO - 6-4, 198 (9pts, 2rbs, 2ast)
F - Seth Tuttle, JR - 6-8, 232 (18pts, 5rbs, 3ast, 3stl, 3 TOs - *12/14 from the FT line)
C - Ted Friedman, FR - 6-9, 230

Bench:
G - Jeremy Morgan, FR - 6-5, 195
F - Nate Buss, JR - 6-9, 216 (6pts, 2 rbs, 1ast, 2 TOs)
F - Chip Rank, SR - 6-6, 235 (0pts, 3rbs, 1ast, 1 TO)

Of note:
-They shot 11/26 from deep as a team against us last year. We're in trouble if we let them hit 11 threes again.
-We sent Tuttle to the free throw line like it was our job. Altogether we had 23 team fouls and gave them 30 FT attempts. They connected on 23 of them.
-Jake Koch is gone, but he struggled in that game with only 3 points.
-Anthony James and Marc Sonnen are both gone. They combined for 27 of the team's 53 FG attempts. They also combined for 40 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 steals.
-Massively of note, Marc Sonnen went 7/10 from deep. The rest of the team shot 4/16 from deep. Returning player Matt Bohannon shot 3/4 from deep, but only 1/4 against Ohio.
-Collectively against Ohio, they shot 6/22 from deep, 19/49 from the field.

Ohio boxscore: http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400499960
Last year's boxscore: http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=323432244

I don't know how well they shoot threes in transition, but I would think that pressing them will work to our advantage in tiring out their shooters and limiting 3-point opportunities with a shorter clock to work through half-court sets. They may get their share of 3's but we absolutely have to limit the fouling and FTs. Having Marko down low may work well in this game since he's been able to play effective defense without fouling.

 

[gmuballer14]

Bryon Allen is on crutches and is supposed to be on them until next week so I do not know if he will be able to play on Saturday.

 

[EXpatriot13]

Bryon Allen is on crutches and is supposed to be on them until next week so I do not know if he will be able to play on Saturday.

And how do you know this?

 

[gmutom]

And how do you know this?

I would assume by his screen name that he is still a student and he saw Allen using crutches. Although it would suck if he missed this game, it's better not to rush him for an OOC game so he can get healthy for the rest of the season.

 

[JBiggs]

Bad news, but I agree with Tom. Need him to fully heal for what's to come. I'm guessing it's a sprain, but we'll see.

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

F*CK! We need Allen. UNI is way better than we think. This game is going to be no cakewalk by any stretch of the imagination.

I am expecting a loss. However if we win, it will say a lot about the maturity of this team especially compared to last year.

 

[gmuballer14]

He is walking around campus with crutches. So we will have to see what's up on Saturday. And Copes was wearing his warm up gear on campus on Tuesday when the team was at Lamar. Hopefully he was going to the gym to practice so he can come out fresh and fully healthy with a chip on his shoulder.

 

[EXpatriot13]

Bad news if Allen can't play on Saturday.

Starting line-up?
-Moore
-Wright (maybe Holloway)
-Gray (Wright if Holloway starts)
-Marko
-Arledge (if he can play)

 

[JBiggs]

If we do win without Allen, Arledge and Copes, it will say a lot about our young guys, and our bench overall, that's for sure. We already know Gujanicic and Holloway are going to do big things here, but if we get more from Jenkins of what we got in game 1 and more from Moore of what we got in game 2 combined with Vaughn Gray's resurgence, we will finally have meaningful depth.

Sherrod Wright has to be ready to dominate offensively, which we all know he's capable of.

 

[gmujim92]

Maybe it's just me trying to be positive -- that's funny, right Tom? -- but I think being a little shorthanded could actually help us in the short term.

Simple math says that if Allen and Arledge don't play, we'll be down to a 9-man rotation and Hewitt won't be able to run new players in every 35 seconds.

A tighter rotation will give guys a chance to get into the rhythm of the game and develop a flow. And as an added bonus, maybe just maybe we'll scrap our "press" to avoid fatigue and just focus on defending 3s in the half court.

 

[gmutom]

Simple math says that if Allen and Arledge don't play, we'll be down to a 9-man rotation and Hewitt won't be able to run new players in every 35 seconds.

Jim, unlike last year with all of the jerky-jerky rotations, I've been happy with the substitutions so far this year. Granted, some of that has been dictated by Copes being out and some foul trouble with Allen and Sherrod, but I feel like all of the players who have played have gotten plenty of court time rather than spurts here and there.

It just seems like Hewitt is trusting the hot hands like Gray and Holloway more rather than yanking guys after just a few minutes (unless it's for a mistake like Corey made the other night when we got the 3-seconds call).

PS: I appreciate your attempt to be positive. lol

 

[EXpatriot13]

Where's the HYPE VIDEO!? Thuc does great work. Anticipation is killing me.

 

[Haxormax]

anyone know how the quality is in patriot vision this year?

I say we win by 10!

 

[JBiggs]

Same quality as before. No score or clock, and pretty poor resolution.

Sent from my HTC6500LVW using Tapatalk

 

[Haxormax]

Anything a petition or something would fix? Lamar had a pretty decent feed... FOR FREE. Why are we paying for 2002 cellphone quality?

 

[TweederGMU]

If Bryon is out that is awful news. I don't see us pulling this one out since he is Mr. Hustle and the only one of our starting 5 who plays perimeter defense. Ugh. If his knee is that bad then by all means don't rush it. But don't see us pulling this one out with Mr. Hustle out.

We lose by 4 if BA can't go

 

[Scythe]

Anything a petition or something would fix? Lamar had a pretty decent feed... FOR FREE. Why are we paying for 2002 cellphone quality?

I would be more than willing to donate a Nexus 4 (or another Nexus flavor) to record the games with better resolution/quality, haha. They can just start a Google Hangout or something... no hosting needed either

But seriously, a live video feed is so simple to do in 1080p these days for less than $500 to set it up.

 

[GSII]

Its a sad shame this game, nor our first six, are not on TV. Did the Copes suspension cost us six games on TV too? Hmmmmm.

 

[Five Two]

I was told last year that Patriot Vision is at the mercy of the Patriot Center wiring. Until the Patriot Center upgrades to HD cables (and some other tech stuff I didn't understand), the feed will remain as its been for the past few years. No timetable on when the arena will get those upgrades, unfortunately.