Game 15: University of Massachusetts, Wednesday, January 4th, 7 PM, NO TV

[gmujim92]

I want to see Boyd be a little more aggressive. He has all the physical tools to get to the basket regularly and is a pretty good shooter. Drive the lane, pick up fouls, and once they start defending the drive, pull up from the elbow like he did a few times against Penn. We also have the passing ability to find him on a back cut and let his athletic ability take care of things at the rim.

It hasn't really been Boyd's role to be super-aggressive offensively with Marquise and Otis dominating the ball, but I imagine that will change if Marquise can't play tomorrow night.

 

[Pablo]

http://www.umasshoops.com/newboard/...sid=dc8d8a112e30ffd09ae7c190d2aba640&start=15:


Re: Game 15, 2016-17: at George Mason (1/4)
by 69MG » Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:57 am

"Moore is a unique player. He's taken 168 shots this year and only 5 have been from 3. He's 0/5. If we don't sag off him and try to stop him from driving we are idiots. It wont be easy as I'm sure that's everyone's game plan. By the way, he has taken 105 free throws this year. Our leader is Donte with 66. H's a 6'2 guard (but he's big at over 200 lbs.)."

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Re: Game 15, 2016-17: at George Mason (1/4)
by NilesGold » Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:08 am

" I'm not sure, but I believe UMass pressures the the ball out to the 3pt line regardless of the player being a threat to take a 3 or not. This is the one thing that drives me crazy."

 

[Pablo]

Will Kameron Murrell and/or DeAndre Abram get more PT this game?

http://gomason.com/news/2017/1/3/mens-basketball-mason-wraps-up-homestand-wednesday-vs-umass.aspx:

"STARTERS STEP UP, BUT BELIEVE IN THE BENCH!
Much of Mason's production this season has come from its starting lineup. The Patriots' reserves play just 27.9 percent of the team's total minutes, and that number ranks 286th nationally. A total of 78.5 percent of the team's scoring output comes from the team's starting five. Mason's bench has been outscored in eight of 14 games this season, but when the group of young players wins the battle, the Patriots have found success. Mason is 5-1 when it wins the bench battle and 5-3 when the reserves are outscored."

 

[Pablo]

http://sidearm.sites.s3.amazonaws.c...nts/2017/1/3/MASON_mbb_notes_UMass_010416.pdf:

"Justin Kier

Tallied eight points (3-4 FG, 2-2 3pt FG) vs. vcu
8.3 ppg, 63.6 FG% (4-4 3pt FG) over the past three games
Ranks third on the team in rebounding (5.6 rpg)

Jaire Grayer

10 points (2-4 3pt FG), four rebounds vs. vcu on Dec. 30
11.0 ppg, 2.3 spg, 50.0 FG% (13-26) over the past three games
Has started 45 of 46 games in his Mason career"

 

[Pablo]

Good to see Marquise practicing:

https://twitter.com/MasonMBB/status/816348712477790208

 

[psyclone]

Kenpom: Mason now a 4 pt favorite

VegasInsider: Mason opens as a 12.5 favorite (really?), currently a 5.5 favorite.

 

[Petey Buckets]

Should be a fun one. UMass plays crazy fast (28th in the country) but they don't score very efficiently. Quick breakdown:

- According to hoop-math.com, they're 11th in the country in shot attempts in transition at 31%. For reference, that's behind Creighton and Kentucky but ahead of UCLA. These guys play fast as hell.

- They shoot 3s at 30%, 322nd in the country, even worse than we are. But they take a metric shitload of them - 45% of their shots are threes.

- They take almost 40% of their shots at the rim. They're 2p jumper % is 15%, ninth *lowest* in the country. (Hoop-math regrettably has some overlap between transition shots and all other shots, in case you were about to tell me that 45+31+40+15 is more than 100).

- They aren't terribly effective in transition despite how much they run, but they're really bad in the halfcourt. Their efg% is 56.9% in transition and 47.9% out of it - that's 236th in the country.

I haven't watched them at all, but they seem very modern in that they want to run, get to the rim, and shoot threes - they don't take many low value jumpers at all. Usually when people say you want to slow down a running team it's an oversimplification, but it appears to be very much the case here as they have a lot of trouble scoring in the halfcourt. To date we've been a pretty solid transition defense team, but not spectacular.

UMass also does the following:

- Turn opponents over on 19.4% of possessions, nearly as much as vcu.

- Allow only 91.3 points per 100 possessions (34th in the country).

The combination of pace and tough defense could make this a really interesting game. If Marquise is limited at all then I think we're in trouble. That's a sentiment that would apply to any game, but this one would feel particularly bad given how much UMass wants to run and how much we need to defend the perimeter. Think we'll see a lot of the bench given the pace - also think we'll see a lot more of Temara than Relvao since Relvao doesn't run the floor as well.

 

[Pablo]

http://www.umassathletics.com/news/...ll-a-10-road-play-begins-at-george-mason.aspx:

"Location EagleBank Arena | Norfolk, Va."

 

[Washingtonian]

5.5 point favorite, 145.5 over/under according to Vegas Insider. However, according to that site, the open was 12.5 point favorite. What a weird jump.

 

[Five Two]

http://www.umassathletics.com/news/...ll-a-10-road-play-begins-at-george-mason.aspx:

"Location EagleBank Arena | Norfolk, Va."

I like our chances if UMass shows up in Norfolk tonight to play us.

 

[MasonCrew]

UMass does typically struggle against the George Madison Colonials when we play in Norfolk. Should be a good game, but I expect tradition to hold.

 

[Vurbel]

UMass does typically struggle against the George Madison Colonials when we play in Norfolk. Should be a good game, but I expect tradition to hold.

That's the game in the Richmond Coliseum, right?

 

[MasonCrew]

Haha yep!

Also re the jump... as a betting man that makes me happy for Mason's chances. Public is way out of sync with Vegas and that's always a good thing for the people on Vegas's side.

 

[Washingtonian]

I like our chances if UMass shows up in Norfolk tonight to play us.

I am sure there are planes from Boston to Norfolk non-stop, maybe the pilot can take a detour!

 

[MasonSAE4]

5.5 point favorite, 145.5 over/under according to Vegas Insider. However, according to that site, the open was 12.5 point favorite. What a weird jump.

UMass's big man was nursing an injury. Has he been officially ruled out? Might explain large jumps in the line.

 

[MASONscott]

Just spent a few minutes reading through the game notes. Nice to see the boys getting better as the game goes along.

"The Patriots have outscored their opponent in the second half in eight of the past ten games. The second half margin has been 18 or more points in three of the past four Mason wins. The Patriots outscored Penn State by 20 (48-28), Penn by 17 (41-24) and Longwood by 17 (47-30) in the second stanza. On the season, the Patriots are averaging 34.1 points and shooting 42.5 percent (29.7 3pt FG%) in first halves. Those numbers increase to 39.7 points, 47.7 percent overall and 34.3 percent from beyond the arc in second halves. Over the final five minutes of games, Mason is shooting 50.0 percent and 42.3 percent from beyond the arc."

 

[psyclone]

Mason is now down to a 4 pt favorite on vegasinsider.

There's some really screwy opening lines on that site. St. Louis opened as a 3 pt favorite on the road against LaSalle (clearly off as the Billikens are the worst team in the league) to currently a 15.5 underdog. Although less dramatic, Fordham went from a 3 pt favorite at the open to currently a 4 pt underdog at Richmond.

Who is setting these opening lines? It wouldn't seem to be in Vegas' interest to set lines wildly different than the Kenpom or rpiforecast at the opening. Unless there is a major injury that the computer lines can't take into account (I assume), setting lines that are such outliars would invite losses.

 

[Pablo]

http://www.jcj.com/championscenter/:

"The new 56,500 square foot basketball development center at UMass Amherst provides identical practice courts, team rooms and administrative centers for men’s and women’s varsity basketball. The programs share a 2,800 square foot weight training center; a 1,700 square foot nutrition center; a 1,900 square foot sports medicine center with a hydrotherapy spa; a 1,200 square foot 'Legacy Hall;' and a 24-seat film room."

 

[psyclone]

Should be a fun one. UMass plays crazy fast (28th in the country) but they don't score very efficiently. Quick breakdown:

- According to hoop-math.com, they're 11th in the country in shot attempts in transition at 31%. For reference, that's behind Creighton and Kentucky but ahead of UCLA. These guys play fast as hell.

- They shoot 3s at 30%, 322nd in the country, even worse than we are. But they take a metric shitload of them - 45% of their shots are threes.

- They take almost 40% of their shots at the rim. They're 2p jumper % is 15%, ninth *lowest* in the country. (Hoop-math regrettably has some overlap between transition shots and all other shots, in case you were about to tell me that 45+31+40+15 is more than 100).

- They aren't terribly effective in transition despite how much they run, but they're really bad in the halfcourt. Their efg% is 56.9% in transition and 47.9% out of it - that's 236th in the country.

I haven't watched them at all, but they seem very modern in that they want to run, get to the rim, and shoot threes - they don't take many low value jumpers at all. Usually when people say you want to slow down a running team it's an oversimplification, but it appears to be very much the case here as they have a lot of trouble scoring in the halfcourt. To date we've been a pretty solid transition defense team, but not spectacular.

UMass also does the following:

- Turn opponents over on 19.4% of possessions, nearly as much as vcu.

- Allow only 91.3 points per 100 possessions (34th in the country).

The combination of pace and tough defense could make this a really interesting game. If Marquise is limited at all then I think we're in trouble. That's a sentiment that would apply to any game, but this one would feel particularly bad given how much UMass wants to run and how much we need to defend the perimeter. Think we'll see a lot of the bench given the pace - also think we'll see a lot more of Temara than Relvao since Relvao doesn't run the floor as well.

 

[Pablo]

http://www.umasshoops.com/newboard/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=15021&start=30:


Re: Game 15, 2016-17: at George Mason (1/4)
by chdavis295 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:29 am

"Vegas (and the betting public) like our chances much more than anyone on this board. We went from 5.5 point dogs this morning to 2.5 point dogs right now.

EDIT: I wonder if this means Vegas knows something about Moore that we do not."