Game 14: GMU (7-6 / 3-4) at St. Joe’s (1-11 / 0-6) on Saturday at 12:30PM. 2nd Game of Back to Back

[Herndon]

We are actually bottom 4 in the league over that timeframe, not middle of the pack.

You know, I was curious about this, so I went ahead and researched it:

2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 Wins Losses Win %
Dayton 4-2 18-0 13-5 8-10 15-3 58 20 0.74359
St. Bonaventure 5-1 11-7 12-6 14-4 11-7 53 25 0.679487
Rhode Island 4-4 13-5 9-9 15-3 13-5 54 26 0.675
vcu 3-2 8-10 16-2 9-9 14-4 50 27 0.649351
Davidson 5-2 10-8 14-4 13-5 8-10 52 29 0.641975
Richmond 3-1 14-4 6-12 9-9 13-5 45 31 0.592105
Saint Louis 0-0 12-6 10-8 9-9 6-12 37 35 0.513889
George Mason 4-4 5-13 11-7 9-9 9-9 38 42 0.475
Duquesne 3-4 11-7 10-8 7-11 3-15 34 45 0.43038
La Salle 3-4 6-12 8-10 7-11 9-9 33 46 0.417722
George Washington 2-3 6-12 4-14 7-11 10-8 29 48 0.376623
UMass 4-1 8-10 4-14 5-13 4-14 25 52 0.324675
Saint Joseph's 0-7 2-16 6-12 10-8 4-14 22 57 0.278481
Fordham 1-6 2-16 3-15 4-14 7-11 17 62 0.21519

Ugh, the formatting didn't carry over.

The point is, over that time period, we're 8th in the league. In a 14 team league, middle of the road is 7.5, so I'd call that about EXACTLY middle of the road.

We can go back and forth about whether that's good enough, but lets debate honestly.

 

[tblack33]

You know, I was curious about this, so I went ahead and researched it:

2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 Wins Losses Win %
Dayton 4-2 18-0 13-5 8-10 15-3 58 20 0.74359
St. Bonaventure 5-1 11-7 12-6 14-4 11-7 53 25 0.679487
Rhode Island 4-4 13-5 9-9 15-3 13-5 54 26 0.675
vcu 3-2 8-10 16-2 9-9 14-4 50 27 0.649351
Davidson 5-2 10-8 14-4 13-5 8-10 52 29 0.641975
Richmond 3-1 14-4 6-12 9-9 13-5 45 31 0.592105
Saint Louis 0-0 12-6 10-8 9-9 6-12 37 35 0.513889
George Mason 4-4 5-13 11-7 9-9 9-9 38 42 0.475
Duquesne 3-4 11-7 10-8 7-11 3-15 34 45 0.43038
La Salle 3-4 6-12 8-10 7-11 9-9 33 46 0.417722
George Washington 2-3 6-12 4-14 7-11 10-8 29 48 0.376623
UMass 4-1 8-10 4-14 5-13 4-14 25 52 0.324675
Saint Joseph's 0-7 2-16 6-12 10-8 4-14 22 57 0.278481
Fordham 1-6 2-16 3-15 4-14 7-11 17 62 0.21519

Ugh, the formatting didn't carry over.

The point is, over that time period, we're 8th in the league. In a 14 team league, middle of the road is 7.5, so I'd call that about EXACTLY middle of the road.

We can go back and forth about whether that's good enough, but lets debate honestly.

I hear you, and understand your argument, and don’t think you are COMPLETELY wrong. I just think that the line shouldn’t be straight. If we are middle of the road, let’s suck in a rebuild year, build up in year two, and over perform and make a tournament in year 3 or 4 when we peak then do it all over again. Look at GW teams under Lonergan, plenty of other middle of the road A10 teams that do exactly this. that’s what I expect at Mason. It’s just constantly being in the 6-9 range that’s infuriating. It gets us nowhere, and if at best we can finish 6th then this isn’t really worth it, because 6th will never get us dancing.

 

[JimP]

How is LaSalle up 1 against Richmond at Richmond in the 2nd half?

 

[tblack33]

I hear you, and understand your argument, and don’t think you are COMPLETELY wrong. I just think that the line shouldn’t be straight. If we are middle of the road, let’s suck in a rebuild year, build up in year two, and over perform and make a tournament in year 3 or 4 when we peak then do it all over again. Look at GW teams under Lonergan, plenty of other middle of the road A10 teams that do exactly this. that’s what I expect at Mason. It’s just constantly being in the 6-9 range that’s infuriating. It gets us nowhere, and if at best we can finish 6th then this isn’t really worth it, because 6th will never get us dancing.

Well pull in enough interest and money in those 2 years where we are over performing and making money and increasing fans where it won’t have to be as cyclical anymore. That’s literally how teams like Dayton, URI, etc have gotten where they are.

 

[Herndon]

you bring a fair point but you also need to bring the first year as well into the fold when doing a full evaluation. As much as it was a pass; things haven’t changed enough for me to think mediocrity is the ceiling for Dave.

when you do look at this body of work and take out the first year I still see 38-42 in league and 9-17 in the last two years. I also haven’t seen enough on the non conference side to tell me that corners have turned. We still have lost questionable games whether it’s blowing leads or just plain out sucking as well. Losing to Norfolk state and blowing a big lead to Belmont convinced me that Dave had to go. Squeezing out fluke wins in or out of conference (many against very bad teams) doesn’t do it for me either.

The point is that Dave has had plenty of time, he has an experienced roster, and it doesn’t look like he is going to get to reach a new height of improvement this year. he is what he is, and if mediocrity and less is good enough for Mason to keep him, that’s really disappointing. I get transition and time but it’s time to show your serious about the program when many things like fan interest and ticket sales have already soured.

“Average program” at this point is nice and all, but it’s time to take the next step. Simple as that.

Based upon what?

It's REAL EASY to say "it's time to take the next step", because we assume that the next step will be UPWARDS when there is no underlying reason to believe that.

Now, some people are going to believe "well you just keep trying over and over and over and over until you catch lightning in a bottle". Ok, some people believe that. I, personally, do not.

To me, somebody who achieves performance consistent with the tools they are given has succeeded to my satisfaction. If I give them more resources at their disposal, I will expect performance to improve, but when given average resources, paulsen has produced average results.

I'm not interested in a game here or a game there, or an inbounds pass, or mountain dew or whatever. I'm interested in big picture results, and big picture I see a coach that produces results consistent with the tools at his disposal. That makes him competent. Nothing more, nothing less.

Competent is good enough for me, if the program is run in a manner we can be proud of. If we want to spend a shit-ton of money on recruiting and facilities, and assistant coach salaries, and if our fanbase stops being a bunch of whiny little children and starts supporting the program like Dayton or vcu or something, THEN I'll say "we should win more".

But right now, we shouldn't win more. It would be NICE to, but it's a silly EXPECTATION

 

[Herndon]

So let’s break it down a bit for you.

Say Herndon high school is 3-0 against really really bad teams. People start to get excited. Some think they have a really talented roster and a coach that is excellent. But then they go 0-7 in league play to start the year. They are thought by the rest of the league to be a joke. Some think the coach should be sent back to YMCA ball as the janitor. Yes this scenario doesn’t apply to Mason at all but damn 0-7 in league play. No wonder you’re a fan of mediocrity because it’s where you strive to be some day with your team.

It sounds like what you're saying is that people have unrealistic expectations, and got overly hyped up by successes, and overly disappointed by failures.

I'm not a fan of mediocrity. I'm a fan of being an adult, and understanding that I don't always get my way just because I REALLY REALLY want it.

 

[GMUgemini]

Based upon what?

It's REAL EASY to say "it's time to take the next step", because we assume that the next step will be UPWARDS when there is no underlying reason to believe that.

Now, some people are going to believe "well you just keep trying over and over and over and over until you catch lightning in a bottle". Ok, some people believe that. I, personally, do not.

To me, somebody who achieves performance consistent with the tools they are given has succeeded to my satisfaction. If I give them more resources at their disposal, I will expect performance to improve, but when given average resources, paulsen has produced average results.

I'm not interested in a game here or a game there, or an inbounds pass, or mountain dew or whatever. I'm interested in big picture results, and big picture I see a coach that produces results consistent with the tools at his disposal. That makes him competent. Nothing more, nothing less.

Competent is good enough for me, if the program is run in a manner we can be proud of. If we want to spend a shit-ton of money on recruiting and facilities, and assistant coach salaries, and if our fanbase stops being a bunch of whiny little children and starts supporting the program like Dayton or vcu or something, THEN I'll say "we should win more".

But right now, we shouldn't win more. It would be NICE to, but it's a silly EXPECTATION

Because since we joined the conference, we are literally one of three teams who haven't made a postseason (GMU, Fordham, Duquesne). Even La Salle has made a postseason in that timeframe.

So, if we are middle of the pack ins expenditures and facilities, you'd expect that at some point we'd catch lightning in a bottle at least once. And let's not even talk about that 11-7 team, because they screwed up the beginning and end of that season and that was one of the worst A-10s overall in the last 10 years.

 

[Herndon]

I hear you, and understand your argument, and don’t think you are COMPLETELY wrong. I just think that the line shouldn’t be straight. If we are middle of the road, let’s suck in a rebuild year, build up in year two, and over perform and make a tournament in year 3 or 4 when we peak then do it all over again. Look at GW teams under Lonergan, plenty of other middle of the road A10 teams that do exactly this. that’s what I expect at Mason. It’s just constantly being in the 6-9 range that’s infuriating. It gets us nowhere, and if at best we can finish 6th then this isn’t really worth it, because 6th will never get us dancing.

You know, I hear that, and disagree.

I like steady performance, because with steady performance, we can improve fundamentals, and then expect improved steady performance.

But, I'll say this, I understand that some people would prefer higher highs and lower lows. That's fine. I don't.

 

[Herndon]

Because since we joined the conference, we are literally one of three teams who haven't made a postseason (GMU, Fordham, Duquesne). Even La Salle has made a postseason in that timeframe.

So, if we are middle of the pack ins expenditures and facilities, you'd expect that at some point we'd catch lightning in a bottle at least once. And let's not even talk about that 11-7 team, because they screwed up the beginning and end of that season and that was one of the worst A-10s overall in the last 10 years.

So it seems you are with Tblack in the I'd prefer to be either REALLY good or REALLY bad than middle of the road.

Ok, you're entitled to that.

 

[sleeperpick]

It sounds like what you're saying is that people have unrealistic expectations, and got overly hyped up by successes, and overly disappointed by failures.

I'm not a fan of mediocrity. I'm a fan of being an adult, and understanding that I don't always get my way just because I REALLY REALLY want it.

So does Herndon High have lesser facilities, boosters, school drawn zones for students than the other teams in its league? Otherwise why does a coach who obviously can’t compete keep getting retained to have losing season after losing season.

 

[mkaufman1]

This argument is absolutely going to go nowhere because I feel like it’s another version of the “mason is what they are and accept it”, vs the “we want better crowd”

 

[GMUgemini]

So it seems you are with Tblack in the I'd prefer to be either REALLY good or REALLY bad than middle of the road.

Ok, you're entitled to that.

Do you honestly believe we're playing more solid, fundamental basketball than we did in 2015? Serious question. You talk about steady improvement, where is it? Year 6 and we'll be LUCKY to be 9-9. More likely we are at best 7-11.

 

[Herndon]

So does Herndon High have lesser facilities, boosters, school drawn zones for students than the other teams in its league? Otherwise why does a coach who obviously can’t compete keep getting retained to have losing season after losing season.

If Herndon's coach was having losing season afterr losing season, I'd absolutely say it's time for a change.

 

[Herndon]

Do you honestly believe we're playing more solid, fundamental basketball than we did in 2015? Serious question. You talk about steady improvement, where is it? Year 6 and we'll be LUCKY to be 9-9. More likely we are at best 7-11.

Where do I talk about steady improvement in this thread?

I'd say we have found our level.

I don't think it's reasonable to just think "we're going to keep improving for ever and ever".

 

[GMUgemini]

If Herndon's coach was having losing season afterr losing season, I'd absolutely say it's time for a change.

What if we were under .500 after 7 seasons?

 

[sleeperpick]

If Herndon's coach was having losing season afterr losing season, I'd absolutely say it's time for a change.

Hasn’t it been 4 seasons in a row at the least according to maxpreps?!

 

[GMUgemini]

Where do I talk about steady improvement in this thread?

I'd say we have found our level.

I don't think it's reasonable to just think "we're going to keep improving for ever and ever".

So, the variables, then are this: 1) facilities; 2) fan support, 3) coach.

We've improved our facilities. Fan support will not come back until we are winning. And our coach is under .500 in A-10 play after 6 seasons.

So, do we give up and just let Paulsen stay here for 20 years?

Also, here is your quote: "I like steady performance, because with steady performance, we can improve fundamentals, and then expect improved steady performance."

 

[Herndon]

Hasn’t it been 4 seasons in a row at the least according to maxpreps?!

oh hell if I know, lol, I don't follow Herndon hoops at all I thought we were talking about Mason, and using Herndon as a metaphor!

My bad

 

[mkaufman1]

Based upon what?

It's REAL EASY to say "it's time to take the next step", because we assume that the next step will be UPWARDS when there is no underlying reason to believe that.

Now, some people are going to believe "well you just keep trying over and over and over and over until you catch lightning in a bottle". Ok, some people believe that. I, personally, do not.

To me, somebody who achieves performance consistent with the tools they are given has succeeded to my satisfaction. If I give them more resources at their disposal, I will expect performance to improve, but when given average resources, paulsen has produced average results.

I'm not interested in a game here or a game there, or an inbounds pass, or mountain dew or whatever. I'm interested in big picture results, and big picture I see a coach that produces results consistent with the tools at his disposal. That makes him competent. Nothing more, nothing less.

Competent is good enough for me, if the program is run in a manner we can be proud of. If we want to spend a shit-ton of money on recruiting and facilities, and assistant coach salaries, and if our fanbase stops being a bunch of whiny little children and starts supporting the program like Dayton or vcu or something, THEN I'll say "we should win more".

But right now, we shouldn't win more. It would be NICE to, but it's a silly EXPECTATION

look we can go in circles but in short

Dave has now had 6 years to install his way, recruit to what he sees fit, and play a lot of games against A10 talent. He now has a practice facility and locker room to help with any of his day to day needs from recruiting to more time in the gym.

The last two pieces are more than any other coach has had at Mason. With that in place I thought they’d improve a little bit. Do I expect Dayton and vcu? No. Not at all. But do I expect to have a program that is competitive and sniffs the ncaa or NIT every few years? Yes. It hasn’t happened. 20 wins hasn’t even happened other than in year 2.

at the end of the day it’s about the coach. Schmidt does it in Olean. Dambrot does it in Duquesne. Everyone has challenges and advantages. To me I’ve seen enough of what Dave can and can’t do, and if Mason is serious about the A10, I think it’s time they make a move and replace him. Simple as that.

 

[Herndon]

So, the variables, then are this: 1) facilities; 2) fan support, 3) coach.

We've improved our facilities. Fan support will not come back until we are winning. And our coach is under .500 in A-10 play after 6 seasons.

So, do we give up and just let Paulsen stay here for 20 years?

Mmm, facilities are part of a larger issue, which is "school support" to include basketball budget, coaching budget, etc.