Fire Dave Paulsen / Hire Tony Skinn

[gmubrian]

I don’t think that the shitty seats and better experience at home this season is a uniquely mason problem though, and it seems like every other conference school that can have fans has had no issues filling out their reduced max.

If your statement about other teams is borne out by data, then I would agree that is a bad indication for us. I would like to see GW
's numbers. Given we are both in the same DC bubble from a news/politics standpoint, and both coming up from the bottom of the league with similar results this year, I think that would be a good comparison from fan mindset.

 

[Falco]

I agree that he will likely be back, but, that doesn't mean I agree with it or have to stop discussing it in the appropriate thread, which this seems to be. Dragging it into every other thread, I agree, is getting pretty old and killing any attempts to talk about other Mason basketball topics.

Touche.

 

[tblack33]

If your statement about other teams is borne out by data, then I would agree that is a bad indication for us. I would like to see GW
's numbers. Given we are both in the same DC bubble from a news/politics standpoint, and both coming up from the bottom of the league with similar results this year, I think that would be a good comparison from fan mindset.

I believe GW hasn’t allowed fans at games, but vcu and Richmond both have and both sold out (if the ticket availability is to be trusted as a barometer for available seats. vcu went as far as to raise the donor level to be able to buy seats this year.

 

[Pablo]

Coach Paulsen made it clear after being hired that Mason was sufficiently committed to compete at the highest level. If it weren't, then he would not have taken the job. He talked about hanging banners and Mason becoming a perennial Top 25 program. Now, I never expected the latter, but I believe that it's reasonable to expect him to earn an NCAA tourney bid within 6 or 7 seasons.

If he fails to do so this season or next (assuming that he will be back), then he should be terminated.

 

[Herndon]

Moving this discussion to the Paulsen thread to stop polluting the GW win thread.

Herndon, I agree with about 95-99% of your whole "He is Average, thus we are getting average" argument, but I don't think that is the end of the story.

As a tangent, I had argued many years ago that he can't be a horrible coach and have the worst recruits at the same time. If he has the worst recruits, then he is doing a hell of a job coaching them up. I think that is likely the situation. I suspect he is a good teacher/practice coach. He just doesn't seem to be a good game coach. He doesn't seem to be able to plan for most games and his adjustments and rotations are mind boggling at times.

Back to the "He is average" argument. Areas where I don't disagree, but think you are not nuanced enough (many of these have been addressed by others already):

• Expectations. You argue that since Mason is only average in the support of the program, we should only expect him to be average. That is logical, but, Brad and Dave have set the expectations higher. They say we have resources to succeed and have told us we will compete for championships. We should hold them to that. We shouldn't make excuses for them. If they want to come out and make this argument themselves, that is on them. If they think funding is not there, they can ask the community for money to do X,Y, and Z, otherwise we will just be average. They have not done that.
• His results should peak a little higher. He seems to peak at average but his lows are low. So I think the argument can be made that he is trending slightly below average. Additionally, his peaks have been in weak years, as well. I would expect there to be a peak near the top of the conference in his best years if his low is near the bottom. Also, I think your evaluation of average is a little too narrow. It should include other measures like NCAA tournament appearances. Even if he is truly average overall record-wise, he should get an NCAA tournament appearance occasionally, what ever the average is for A10 teams.
• Results compared to retained coaches-I haven't looked at the numbers, but, someone else made this point. Comparing him top to bottom of the A10 is not necessarily how you compare average. If most of the people finishing around him or below are getting replaced for that level of achievement (or lack thereof). He may be one of the worst performing coaches in the A10 of those that are being retained (especially if he were retained this year).

Possibly the only area where I disagree with you is your conclusion arguing that he should be extended for finishing average again this year. I think he could make that argument in his discussions with Brad (we only have average facilities and funding), but that is not our job to make the excuses for him. When you look at his recruiting issues, his in game issues, his lack of even sniffing an NCAA berth or even progressing in the A10 tournament, for that matter. Then, there are the expectations that he himself has set on top of that (A10 player of the year, two year season, best team ever, etc.), that he has not come even close to meeting. When you put it all together, I don't believe has met expectations and thus does not warrant an extension.

To address your points in order:
1) I smell you, but I'm not stepping in. I agree that they shouldn't blow smoke, in a perfect world, but I also think that every coach's goal is championships, and they ought to say so. Whether or not that's a reasonable expectation or not, though is a different story. That said, your point about not asking for more is ENTIRELY reasonable. It's foolish not to. So, your point is sound, I don't dispute it, I just think we have to acknowledge that there's a little bit of salemanship to try and pump up excitement, and it should be taken with a grain of salt. If I say "my goal is to be the strongest man in the world", I'm not sure it's fair to say I'm failing if I don't reach that. So, agreed, but with caveats.

2) We can agree to disagree. For a mid major program, NCAA tournament appearances are as much a measure of variance as much as of level of performance. Some people value higher highs, some people do not. I think what you value says as much about you as it does about him. As I've said, I'm willing to write off the first season, and I accept that others may not. With that, you have a bunch of Dead Average seasons, with one below average season, and one above average season. It's ENTIRELY fair that his below avearage season was further from the middle than his above average season was. Like, valid. That's just facts. His conference record, EVEN WITH the first season redacted is slightly below 500. (and, honestly, conference record is what I judge by, as it's apples to apples). If we win this week, he'll have had 2 slightly above average seasons and one significantly below average season (again, ignoring year one). To ME, that comes out to slam average. Your mileage may vary.

3) It's a reasonable argument, but it requires the argument to be "he's the shittiest coach in the A10 who isn't among the shittiest coaches in the A10", which I'd be willing to listen to. But it's a different argument than the one people are making.

So, I'm not even necessarily saying I disagree with you. Maybe I agree, but I think it's pretty close, and people here want to act like it's not. I just get sick of the dishonest arguments (which you are clearly not doing). Maybe I'm just a crotchety old man, but I hear the hyperbole, and all I can think is that people sound like a bunch of whiny a** teenage girls who have never actually encountered any actual resistance, and don't know what constitutes what "reasonable expectations" are. (again, maybe I'm the dick. Wouldn't be the first time, won't be the last.)

It's the just the whole "he said he wanted to win titles, and if doesn't he's failing".......just doesn't draw a ton of water, to me.

 

[JPgmuswim]

Unfortunately Paulsen will be back. Move on. Next topic

It’s really funny, that you are the one telling people to move on from the Fire Paulsen talk. Lol
Did someone hack your account?

 

[GMUgemini]

I think conference finish might also be a little misleading. As an example, we currently could finish 6th if things go our way, but we are currently ranked 9th in the conference in NET.

In 2019, when we finished 5th in conference, we finished 7th in the conference in NET, 2018 is an even bigger gap where we finished 5th, but 11th in conference RPI.

 

[gmutom]

Richmond fans must be trolling us, because I hear they just put this up where the Mooney billboard was.

 

[gmujim92]

To address your points in order:
1) I smell you, but I'm not stepping in. I agree that they shouldn't blow smoke, in a perfect world, but I also think that every coach's goal is championships, and they ought to say so. Whether or not that's a reasonable expectation or not, though is a different story. That said, your point about not asking for more is ENTIRELY reasonable. It's foolish not to. So, your point is sound, I don't dispute it, I just think we have to acknowledge that there's a little bit of salemanship to try and pump up excitement, and it should be taken with a grain of salt. If I say "my goal is to be the strongest man in the world", I'm not sure it's fair to say I'm failing if I don't reach that. So, agreed, but with caveats.

2) We can agree to disagree. For a mid major program, NCAA tournament appearances are as much a measure of variance as much as of level of performance. Some people value higher highs, some people do not. I think what you value says as much about you as it does about him. As I've said, I'm willing to write off the first season, and I accept that others may not. With that, you have a bunch of Dead Average seasons, with one below average season, and one above average season. It's ENTIRELY fair that his below avearage season was further from the middle than his above average season was. Like, valid. That's just facts. His conference record, EVEN WITH the first season redacted is slightly below 500. (and, honestly, conference record is what I judge by, as it's apples to apples). If we win this week, he'll have had 2 slightly above average seasons and one significantly below average season (again, ignoring year one). To ME, that comes out to slam average. Your mileage may vary.

3) It's a reasonable argument, but it requires the argument to be "he's the shittiest coach in the A10 who isn't among the shittiest coaches in the A10", which I'd be willing to listen to. But it's a different argument than the one people are making.

So, I'm not even necessarily saying I disagree with you. Maybe I agree, but I think it's pretty close, and people here want to act like it's not. I just get sick of the dishonest arguments (which you are clearly not doing). Maybe I'm just a crotchety old man, but I hear the hyperbole, and all I can think is that people sound like a bunch of whiny a** teenage girls who have never actually encountered any actual resistance, and don't know what constitutes what "reasonable expectations" are. (again, maybe I'm the dick. Wouldn't be the first time, won't be the last.)

It's the just the whole "he said he wanted to win titles, and if doesn't he's failing".......just doesn't draw a ton of water, to me.

Honestly I think it might be easier for everyone if he was just an absolutely shitty coach and you could tell the team was overmatched against anyone with a pulse. He’s not that. But he’s also given no indication whatsoever that he’s a guy who can either recruit well enough or coach well enough to win the A-10.

Obviously there’s no guarantee the next guy will be any better — and we’ve noted the possibility that we could actually do worse — but I think it’s worth the risk. Because if we’re not at least competing to win the league and/or make the dance, I’m not sure why we spend what we do on basketball.

There are a lot of other activities that Mason could fund with $3M a year than just being mediocre enough to never win a damn thing.

 

[GMUgemini]

We spend over 4 million a year on basketball, Jim.

 

[Herndon]

Honestly I think it might be easier for everyone if he was just an absolutely shitty coach and you could tell the team was overmatched against anyone with a pulse. He’s not that. But he’s also given no indication whatsoever that he’s a guy who can either recruit well enough or coach well enough to win the A-10.

Obviously there’s no guarantee the next guy will be any better — and we’ve noted the possibility that we could actually do worse — but I think it’s worth the risk. Because if we’re not at least competing to win the league and/or make the dance, I’m not sure why we spend what we do on basketball.

There are a lot of other activities that Mason could fund with $3M a year than just being mediocre enough to never win a damn thing.

The thing is, I don't know that I disagree with you.

I do think if we are not going to spend any more on the basketball program, then really there is no sense making a move because I firmly believe you pretty much get what you pay for, at least in terms of expected value.

if we're going to spend like a mediocre program, we're probably going to get mediocre results, and I would just as soon get mediocre results with someone who is clearly a decent human being, and recruits good kids

If we want to spend more, and try and be winners, good, that's my pleasure.

If we're going to continue to try and cheap it out, and just roll the dice over and over again hoping to get lucky, thanks but no thanks

 

[mkaufman1]

The thing is, I don't know that I disagree with you.

I do think if we are not going to spend any more on the basketball program, then really there is no sense making a move because I firmly believe you pretty much get what you pay for, at least in terms of expected value.

if we're going to spend like a mediocre program, we're probably going to get mediocre results, and I would just as soon get mediocre results with someone who is clearly a decent human being, and recruits good kids

If we want to spend more, and try and be winners, good, that's my pleasure.

If we're going to continue to try and cheap it out, and just roll the dice over and over again hoping to get lucky, thanks but no thanks

I’m with you here. If they decide to replace Dave with another mediocre hire, why bother?

That said from what I can gather, there isn’t an interest in being mediocre. Whether that’s backed up with investments? Time will tell.

I definitely agree that if they are going to make a move it’s time to show the league they aren’t f**king around.

 

[Mason2005]

Budgets for each team. I don't even think we need to spend more. Bonnies pay Schmidt $832K base. We just need to cut some fat and reallocate. End of the day DP is probably last in pay and he gets Mason to middle pack. That could be a winning combo for Mason. Let's see what they do this off season. My guess is that they will give him a one year extension considering we are finishing above .500 and probably 6th in a "good" A10 year. He also has some good young pieces in Oduro, Kolek and Fraizer.

1. vcu — $6,100,756
2. Dayton — $5,637,549
3. Saint Louis — $5,590,746
4. Massachusetts — $5,324,089
5. Richmond — $4,878,508
6. Rhode Island — $4,713,547
7. Duquesne — $4,445,910
8. Fordham — $4,436,291
9. Saint Joseph’s — $4,212,082
10. George Mason — $3,515,918
11. St. Bonaventure — $3,449,008
12. La Salle — $3,096,492
13. George Washington — $2,943,015
14. Davidson — $2,638,281

 

[gmujim92]

I’m with you here. If they decide to replace Dave with another mediocre hire, why bother?

That said from what I can gather, there isn’t an interest in being mediocre. Whether that’s backed up with investments? Time will tell.

I definitely agree that if they are going to make a move it’s time to show the league they aren’t f*cking around.

If they make a statement hire that screams “We are committed as a university to winning at men’s basketball,” I believe the fans/alumni/donors will step up to help fund that effort.

A big reason why Mason has had such a hard time raising money for athletics is there’s always been the perception that they are unwilling to go all-in; you’re not gonna motivate donors to go into their wallets with a half-assed approach to winning.

For me that starts with showing you’ll pay a coach at least like Richmond does. No more clearance aisle hires trying to catch lightning in a bottle again. That model died the day we left the CAA.

 

[tblack33]

Budgets for each team. I don't even think we need to spend more. Bonnies pay Schmidt $832K base. We just need to cut some fat and reallocate. End of the day DP is probably last in pay and he gets Mason to middle pack. That could be a winning combo for Mason. Let's see what they do this off season. My guess is that they will give him a one year extension considering we are finishing above .500 and probably 6th in a "good" A10 year. He also has some good young pieces in Oduro, Kolek and Fraizer.

1. vcu — $6,100,756
2. Dayton — $5,637,549
3. Saint Louis — $5,590,746
4. Massachusetts — $5,324,089
5. Richmond — $4,878,508
6. Rhode Island — $4,713,547
7. Duquesne — $4,445,910
8. Fordham — $4,436,291
9. Saint Joseph’s — $4,212,082
10. George Mason — $3,515,918
11. St. Bonaventure — $3,449,008
12. La Salle — $3,096,492
13. George Washington — $2,943,015
14. Davidson — $2,638,281

Fordham and St Joe’s spent more than us, how ever can we be better than them?!

We pay more than St Bonnie’s, why did they beat the breaks off us this year??

completely agree though, the program could def be better with what they are spending. We obviously don’t have insight into where that money is going, but from what we’ve seen with AD salaries I’d bet the program probably has some fat to cut.

 

[GMUgemini]

Budgets for each team. I don't even think we need to spend more. Bonnies pay Schmidt $832K base. We just need to cut some fat and reallocate. End of the day DP is probably last in pay and he gets Mason to middle pack. That could be a winning combo for Mason. Let's see what they do this off season. My guess is that they will give him a one year extension considering we are finishing above .500 and probably 6th in a "good" A10 year. He also has some good young pieces in Oduro, Kolek and Fraizer.

1. vcu — $6,100,756
2. Dayton — $5,637,549
3. Saint Louis — $5,590,746
4. Massachusetts — $5,324,089
5. Richmond — $4,878,508
6. Rhode Island — $4,713,547
7. Duquesne — $4,445,910
8. Fordham — $4,436,291
9. Saint Joseph’s — $4,212,082
10. George Mason — $3,515,918
11. St. Bonaventure — $3,449,008
12. La Salle — $3,096,492
13. George Washington — $2,943,015
14. Davidson — $2,638,281

I think these are old numbers: 2019 numbers: George Mason is $4,287,689, which is still ranked 9th in overall basketball spending.

 

[Petey Buckets]

Instead of focusing on spending, can anyone tell me what the program needs but doesn't have? I honestly am not sure, outside of luxuries like chartering flights. Spending probably helps some things but the staples (locker rooms, practice facility, arena) are all above average.

Posting a ranking of spending in the A10 probably reflects some broader truths but I am at a loss as to what it means specifically.

 

[tblack33]

Instead of focusing on spending, can anyone tell me what the program needs but doesn't have? I honestly am not sure, outside of luxuries like chartering flights. Spending probably helps some things but the staples (locker rooms, practice facility, arena) are all above average.

Posting a ranking of spending in the A10 probably reflects some broader truths but I am at a loss as to what it means specifically.

We need a lazy river around presidents park that is only for the basketball team.

 

[gmujim92]

Instead of focusing on spending, can anyone tell me what the program needs but doesn't have? I honestly am not sure, outside of luxuries like chartering flights. Spending probably helps some things but the staples (locker rooms, practice facility, arena) are all above average.

Posting a ranking of spending in the A10 probably reflects some broader truths but I am at a loss as to what it means specifically.

No. 1 for me is head coach salary. You get what you pay for at $750k when the top-end coach in your league makes $2M.

 

[tblack33]

No. 1 for me is head coach salary. You get what you pay for at $750k when the top-end coach in your league makes $2M.

I think it’s relative. I have no problem starting a coach at 750 then renewing higher if he shows he can win.