Bravo Dave Paulsen!! Better?

[Dawgs99]

College basketball is a guards game, our back court was not one of our strengths this season. I can't see any scenario where we aren't substantially better in the back court next year with a year of action for the guys who played this season and much improved depth with the new guys. Yes we will be young in the middle but I'd much rather be thin and inexperienced in the post than in the back court. Plus I have this feeling that Relvao is going to help us next year. I think we will shoot the ball better next year and without Shevon holding on to the ball for 5 minutes in the post the ball movement will also be improved. I don't expect a major jump, but I do think we will be win more games.

 

[gmujim92]

Most A-10 backcourts will be worse than they were this season -- some substantially so.

Here are guys who either graduate or are expected to go pro:

vcu: Melvin Johnson, Korey Billbury
Bona: Marcus Posley
St. Joe: DeAndre Bembry
Davidson: Brian Sullivan
GW: Pato Garino, Joe McDonald
Duquesne: Micah Mason, Derrick Colter
UMass: Jabarie Hinds, Trey Davis
SLU: Ach Yacoubou, Mike Crawford
Fordham: Mandell Thomas
Richmond: Trey Davis
Rhody: Four McGlynn

That's a lot of backcourt talent going bye-bye after this season. That leaves a huge opportunity for our guards -- all 8 of them -- to really have an impact and move us up the standings.

 

[GiantKiller_Co]

Well for us that can be creepy twitter stalkers his bio still lists him as a GMU commit and has photos of him in Mason gear so I'm guessing he is just waiting for the next signing period to start on April 13th to make it official.

He said he was going to sign in April back in November.

 

[MasonFanatic]

There were a half dozen games we lost this season simply because we could not guard a 4 guard lineup, and a couple that we lost because we were down to 2 guards due to fouls/injuries. Just having a full depth of backcourt players next season should win us a few games.

We might be a worse team but win more games, if that makes any sense.

 

[gmujim92]

There were a half dozen games we lost this season simply because we could not guard a 4 guard lineup, and a couple that we lost because we were down to 2 guards due to fouls/injuries. Just having a full depth of backcourt players next season should win us a few games.

We might be a worse team but win more games, if that makes any sense.

Depth makes a huge difference in the intensity with which you are able to guard.

Otis and Jaire knew they had to be on the floor 30-plus minutes for us to have any chance to win.

That will be different once we have Boyd, Newman and Kier ... It will no longer be the end of the world for one of our guards to get in foul trouble.

Really underscores what an amazing job the staff did to squeeze 11 wins out of this roster.

 

[Petey Buckets]

That said, Shevon had the best defensive rating on the team, so I think maybe it's a little disingenuous to think we're going to improve defensively by virtue of him not being on the court.

It's not just Shevon. It's also Marko, who was an awful defender, as well as all of our rookies getting an offseason to get better. Defensive rating has some flaws, and just because Shevon was the best on our team doesn't mean he was good. Shevon was very good in one specific situation - when his man tried to post him up. Shevon was tall enough to alter shots, big enough to not get backed down, and smart enough to keep his man in front of him. I would bet that opponents shot a very low percentage when they were iso'd on Shevon this year. His rebounding also has to be considered as a defensive contribution.

His lack of footspeed and burst really made him a liability in all other areas. Part of the reason our freshman guards looked so bad on defense is that they had almost no help on the back line - if they got burned, Shevon and Marko weren't stopping opponents from getting to the rim. If Shevon had a block from help defense this year, I missed it.

They also weren't great at guarding sets that started with an elbow-high screen from the ballhandler since they'd have to hedge and recover. A lot of the open 3-point looks we gave up this year started with one of our bigs half-assedly hedging a guard, the guard getting a step on Otis, and Jaire or Deandre crashing to help, abandoning their man in the process.

I don't think it's crazy to think that less size but more speed = better defense next year. We were 255th in points allowed per 100 possessions this year, so it's not like there's a ton of room to get worse.

 

[Washingtonian]

There were a half dozen games we lost this season simply because we could not guard a 4 guard lineup, and a couple that we lost because we were down to 2 guards due to fouls/injuries. Just having a full depth of backcourt players next season should win us a few games.

We might be a worse team but win more games, if that makes any sense.

We will beat some of the bottom feeders that we should have this year and steal a few wins (vcu and Davidson were the ones this season).

 

[MasonCrew]

I'm less optimistic. Unless someone comes in and starts consistently hitting shots, we're going to struggle to score. That said, I think we're building a team, which is a new feeling, so while we'll lose a lot, I hope to still be happy with the progress of the team again. I'd like to be competitive when the tourney comes to DC. That should be the goal imo.

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

Depth makes a huge difference in the intensity with which you are able to guard.

Whatever your viewpoint is on the effectiveness of DP's defensive scheme, everyone here must acknowledge that this was a huge factor this season. There were several games this year when I saw the fatigue overwhelmingly displayed on Otis and Jaire's faces and body language.

Getting used to the the pace of division I ball and how it effects your stamina is hard enough. Doing it with starter minutes as a freshman is even tougher.

Next year:

1. We will have a healthy Marquise which as we have seen makes us a completely different team in tangible (scoring, rebounds, defense, assists) and intangible (court presence, calming effect) ways.

2. The freshmen will more ready mentally and physically. Off season conditioning and weightlifting will help facilitate this. They will hopefully have fewer minutes but be more effective.

3. Promising freshmen/first year players. We will hopefully actually have consistent 3 point shooting threats so reliance on Post players will be less. The biggest wild cards are the incoming big men. Yes, Shevon will be gone, but it may force the team to be more creative in the offensive strategy. If the big men show that they can contribute in any significant way (not necessarily scoring) we will be okay. Not A10 champion okay, but out of the PIG okay. And I would be fine with that.

4. Dave Paulsen

 

[Herndon]

Defensive rating has some flaws, and just because Shevon was the best on our team doesn't mean he was good. ...(A bunch of very sound reasoning that I agree with almost entirely)... We were 255th in points allowed per 100 possessions this year, so it's not like there's a ton of room to get worse.

Very well said. That said, it STILL doesn't mean I'm wrong. Yes, Shevon was flawed as a defender. Yes Marko was a turnstile of a defender. Yes, their weaknesses meant that you could run some stuff on them and have success.

They could defend the post, though. Next year we have NOBODY who can defend the post. Jalen is already a foul magnet. Do you think that's going to get better when he's giving up 3-4 inches and 20 pounds every night?

He're's what's going to happen. Teams are going to set up in the halfcourt, and lob it inside time after time after time after time after time. Jalen's going to have 2 fouls in the first 8 minutes, and have to sit, and then we're going to have to bring in Dixon or one of the freshmen, and we're going to get carved up. Unless we get surprised by dixon or one of the freshmen, that's what is going to happen. It's possible that one of those three is a surprise, but you can't count on surprises.

Yes, we can dig down hard from the perimeter, but if the other teams big can pass, that's going to mean open 3's.

I agree that we'll be a better perimeter defensive team, but i think we're going to be awful defensively down low, and will not see much if any W/L progress because of it.

 

[gmujim92]

Very well said. That said, it STILL doesn't mean I'm wrong. Yes, Shevon was flawed as a defender. Yes Marko was a turnstile of a defender. Yes, their weaknesses meant that you could run some stuff on them and have success.

They could defend the post, though. Next year we have NOBODY who can defend the post. Jalen is already a foul magnet. Do you think that's going to get better when he's giving up 3-4 inches and 20 pounds every night?

He're's what's going to happen. Teams are going to set up in the halfcourt, and lob it inside time after time after time after time after time. Jalen's going to have 2 fouls in the first 8 minutes, and have to sit, and then we're going to have to bring in Dixon or one of the freshmen, and we're going to get carved up. Unless we get surprised by dixon or one of the freshmen, that's what is going to happen. It's possible that one of those three is a surprise, but you can't count on surprises.

Yes, we can dig down hard from the perimeter, but if the other teams big can pass, that's going to mean open 3's.

I agree that we'll be a better perimeter defensive team, but i think we're going to be awful defensively down low, and will not see much if any W/L progress because of it.

Herndon, no offense man, but you are seriously overstating the strength of A-10 bigs.

This is a guards league. Always has been. It's a big reason why we've had three years of mostly suck -- our guards either haven't been good enough or we haven't had enough of them, or both.

 

[GreenLantern]

I think there will be modest improvement. 16-18 losses, hopefully enough to get out of the play in game or at least have us win. Depth will make a difference and a year of experience under the belt for our soon to be sophomores.

 

[99 Patriot]

Prior to this season, I fully believed we would be worse in 17 then we were in 16. I no longer believe that at all. Marko was a nice piece, Shevon we've discussed to death and Holloway.... well, he didn't turn out to be our own Steph Curry.

That said, our young players started to learn how to win games this year and Paulsen showed in several games late in the season that given time to gameplan (and not just teach basic fundamentals), he can compete with the best of them. We'll still make some mistakes and have some bad shooting nights, but I think Otis and the Gang will not allow this team to lose near 20 games again.

 

[Patriot Lawdog]

Herndon, no offense man, but you are seriously overstating the strength of A-10 bigs.

This is a guards league. Always has been. It's a big reason why we've had three years of mostly suck -- our guards either haven't been good enough or we haven't had enough of them, or both.

I'd say it's not so much guarding the post as having someone to protect the rim when your guards get beat. We're not gonna have to worry about guarding an Hakeem Olajuwon down low, but we do need someone to erase a few mistakes up high. That being said, we really didn't have that this year, either so we're not losing anything.

 

[Herndon]

Herndon, no offense man, but you are seriously overstating the strength of A-10 bigs.

This is a guards league. Always has been. It's a big reason why we've had three years of mostly suck -- our guards either haven't been good enough or we haven't had enough of them, or both.

Perhaps. If so, I will be GLEEFUL to be wrong

 

[gmutom]

Wow, I was trying to be realistic by saying we won't be better next year without Thompson and Marko, but now some of you have me believing we will be substantially improved. No more setting the bar low for me. I'm saying we make the NIT next year and the NCAAT the year after. Who's with me?

 

[Dawgs99]

I'd say it's not so much guarding the post as having someone to protect the rim when your guards get beat. We're not gonna have to worry about guarding an Hakeem Olajuwon down low, but we do need someone to erase a few mistakes up high. That being said, we really didn't have that this year, either so we're not losing anything.

Jalen is the best shot blocker on the team and he obviously returns so theres a prime candidate to be the rim protector, provided he can stay on the floor.

 

[gmujim92]

Wow, I was trying to be realistic by saying we won't be better next year without Thompson and Marko, but now some of you have me believing we will be substantially improved. No more setting the bar low for me. I'm saying we make the NIT next year and the NCAAT the year after. Who's with me?

Tom, there's a fair amount of territory to cover between "improved" and "NIT."

 

[Herndon]

Jalen is the best shot blocker on the team and he obviously returns so theres a prime candidate to be the rim protector, provided he can stay on the floor.

FWIW, Marquise Moore averaged more blocks per game last year (although Jalen blocked more per minute)

 

[GMU_DCU]

In my mind I had one goal for this year's team, don't lose to Fordham in the play in game. Mission accomplished!