Bravo Dave Paulsen!! Better?

[Pikapppatri8]

Great thread title - content took a nose dive fast.

This Paulsen guy has to go.

Let your wife know that she left her knee pads in my basement. She can pick them up any time after three.

 

[Herndon]

As other people said, I expect us to be worse next year. We are going to get OBLITERATED inside. Our guard play will be improved (quite a bit, I'd assume) but unless Danny Dixon makes a massive jump, I just see us getting chewed up in the paint.

We'll probably even still be below average down low the year after that (with Dixon as a Junior and Relevao and Temara as sophomores), but we ought to be good enough on the perimeter that I think we'll show overall improvement as a team.

None of this is to say I'm not sold on Paulsen. I'm still very much on board, I just don't expect us to go from paupers to princes overnight.

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

What the hell happened to Temara? Any word at all from anyone?

 

[GMUSig03]

Wins over 2 NIT teams, 1 NCAA team/vcu, homecoming win, sweep of Richmond, wins over SEC and Big 12, runner up finish in Charleston = most successful 11-21 season in the history of college basketball, or at least for teams with no sophomore class, leading returning scorer/senior who quit, injuries and suspensions to 3 other starters and relying on 2, sometimes 3, freshman starters, with 5 freshmen playing significant minutes in the 9 man rotation who were recruited in March. Bravo indeed!

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

Wins over 2 NIT teams, 1 NCAA team/vcu, homecoming win, sweep of Richmond, wins over SEC and Big 12, runner up finish in Charleston = most successful 11-21 season in the history of college basketball, or at least for teams with no sophomore class, leading returning scorer/senior who quit, injuries and suspensions to 3 other starters and relying on 2, sometimes 3, freshman starters, with 5 freshmen playing significant minutes in the 9 man rotation who were recruited in March. Bravo indeed!

Nice write up. Even I didn't realize the totality of all that. Makes the off season much more hopeful.

 

[GMU_DCU]

What the hell happened to Temara? Any word at all from anyone?

Well for us that can be creepy twitter stalkers his bio still lists him as a GMU commit and has photos of him in Mason gear so I'm guessing he is just waiting for the next signing period to start on April 13th to make it official.

 

[GMUgemini]

As other people said, I expect us to be worse next year. We are going to get OBLITERATED inside. Our guard play will be improved (quite a bit, I'd assume) but unless Danny Dixon makes a massive jump, I just see us getting chewed up in the paint.

We'll probably even still be below average down low the year after that (with Dixon as a Junior and Relevao and Temara as sophomores), but we ought to be good enough on the perimeter that I think we'll show overall improvement as a team.

None of this is to say I'm not sold on Paulsen. I'm still very much on board, I just don't expect us to go from paupers to princes overnight.

I'm not all that concerned about the A-10's forwards next season. There aren't a whole lot of dominant big men in the conference. Hell, a lot of teams just went 4 guards against us because they knew they weren't going to compete with our guys up front.

Jalen will be able to hold his own under the basket probably at the 5, and as long as whoever plays at the four isn't a traffic cone or a squish, we'll be all right.

I don't think we're going to see a lot of high/low action next season, unless Relvao or Temara have Marko's court vision. And we probably won't be pounding it into the paint on every possession either, because we just aren't going to have a Shevon Thompson there taking up all that space. We'll probably see a lot more mid-range game out of our forwards, more pick and pop, more pick and roll I'd guess.

I think Dixon will back up Jalen at the 5, Relvao, Temara, and Abram will fight it out for minutes at the four.

 

[gmujim92]

As other people said, I expect us to be worse next year. We are going to get OBLITERATED inside.

Not trying to be argumentative, but assuming that we have a healthy Jalen Jenkins starting at the 5, who in the A-10 is really good enough in the paint to obliterate us?

vcu will be a handful with Alie-Cox, Tillman and Hamdy.
Dayton has Pollard and a promising 7-footer in McElvene.

Other than those 2, there's not another A-10 team that returns multiple bigs who have played major minutes.

Given Jalen's propensity for fouling, we will probably need Relvao to step in and play 12-15 mpg at the 5 as a RS freshman. He's a legit 240 pounds. He's not going to get pushed around.

Even though he's skinny, I can see Abram starting at the 4 in what would essentially be a 4-guard lineup: Jenkins, Abram, Grayer, Moore and Livingston.

Paulsen's system helps us in that respect by putting all 5 guys in ideal defensive rebounding position. Honestly, on a bunch of Shevon's defensive boards this season, if he hadn't grabbed it, one of our other guys would've.

Obviously we're not going to rely on grabbing 10-12 offensive rebounds every game, but with our guards improving, I'm hoping we'll have far fewer missed shots to chase down anyhow.

 

[99 Patriot]

Agreed that we lose a strength, but we won't be debilitated by it. It does make you wonder what could have been had Trey Porter had the work ethic to play under Paulsen, he'd have probably been penciled in as the starting 5 and would be our rim protector.

I see us doing to teams what St. Louis did to us. Spread it out and penetrate off mismatches. Moore should benefit the most to not having Shevon clogging the lane.

 

[GreenLantern]

Wins over 2 NIT teams, 1 NCAA team/vcu, homecoming win, sweep of Richmond, wins over SEC and Big 12, runner up finish in Charleston = most successful 11-21 season in the history of college basketball, or at least for teams with no sophomore class, leading returning scorer/senior who quit, injuries and suspensions to 3 other starters and relying on 2, sometimes 3, freshman starters, with 5 freshmen playing significant minutes in the 9 man rotation who were recruited in March. Bravo indeed!

I said it about a week ago that this was the greatest 20 loss season in GMU history!

 

[Herndon]

Here's who the A-10 has coming back
Bembry- 17 and 8 as a Junior at St Joes
Washington-8 and 7 as a sophomore at Lasalle
Cavanaugh 16 and 7 as a junior at GW
Iverson 10 and 7 as a junior at URI
Aldridge 16 and 7 as a sophomore at Davidson
Gill 10 and 7 as a junior at Duquesne (i STILL cannot spell that right on my first attempt)
vcu as mentioned above
Dayton as mentioned above

And that's just off a cursory glance at rebounding stats.

Every one of those teams has more proven production coming back in the frontcourt than us.

Jalen is a nice player, but he's an undersized 4 and he's our ONLY proven post player.

Dixon has not shown he can compete down low yet. Relvao is a complete unknown at the college level, as is Temara.

Again, I'm not trying to trash our guys, but an outsider would say we have a massive size/experience hole inside.

 

[Leesburg Chankenstank III]

Here's who the A-10 has coming back
Bembry- 17 and 8 as a Junior at St Joes
Washington-8 and 7 as a sophomore at Lasalle
Cavanaugh 16 and 7 as a junior at GW
Iverson 10 and 7 as a junior at URI
Aldridge 16 and 7 as a sophomore at Davidson
Gill 10 and 7 as a junior at Duquesne (i STILL cannot spell that right on my first attempt)
vcu as mentioned above
Dayton as mentioned above

And that's just off a cursory glance at rebounding stats.

Every one of those teams has more proven production coming back in the frontcourt than us.

Jalen is a nice player, but he's an undersized 4 and he's our ONLY proven post player.

Dixon has not shown he can compete down low yet. Relvao is a complete unknown at the college level, as is Temara.

Again, I'm not trying to trash our guys, but an outsider would say we have a massive size/experience hole inside.

Just watched a story on ESPN that Bembry is most likely going to the NBA after this year and not returning.

 

[JimP]

Just watched a story on ESPN that Bembry is most likely going to the NBA after this year and not returning.

Hope so!

 

[JimP]

Here's who the A-10 has coming back
Bembry- 17 and 8 as a Junior at St Joes
Washington-8 and 7 as a sophomore at Lasalle
Cavanaugh 16 and 7 as a junior at GW
Iverson 10 and 7 as a junior at URI
Aldridge 16 and 7 as a sophomore at Davidson
Gill 10 and 7 as a junior at Duquesne (i STILL cannot spell that right on my first attempt)
vcu as mentioned above
Dayton as mentioned above

And that's just off a cursory glance at rebounding stats.

Every one of those teams has more proven production coming back in the frontcourt than us.

Jalen is a nice player, but he's an undersized 4 and he's our ONLY proven post player.

Dixon has not shown he can compete down low yet. Relvao is a complete unknown at the college level, as is Temara.

Again, I'm not trying to trash our guys, but an outsider would say we have a massive size/experience hole inside.

It may have been out of need, but Paulsen did play freshmen this year - something he apparently did not do much of at Bucknell. Perhaps he'll be willing to look into transfers at Mason too. Why not - there are so many of them these days. We've gotta smart coaching staff, they can figure out the numbers and make it work.

 

[KAOriginal]

Personally, I think next year falls in the "it gets worse before its better" category.

 

[gmutom]

Personally, I think next year falls in the "it gets worse before its better" category.

Completely agree. It definitely has the makings of a two-step-back season after one-step forward this year. We all just need to believe in the process that things will be better in year 3.

 

[Mason2005]

Personally, I think next year falls in the "it gets worse before its better" category.

I can't agree with this. We had 7 players this year, no way we are worst with a full scholarship roaster.

 

[DAK]

I can't agree with this. We had 7 players this year, no way we are worst with a full scholarship roaster.

I agree with your disagree. There is no way we are worse. The cupboard was left pretty empty.

Yeah, we're thin down low. Yeah, Shavon got a lot of boards and blocks. He was also a turnover machine.

If we hit on one or two freshmen, we will be deeper and more experienced. I really can't see us being worse than this.




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[Petey Buckets]

I kind of wonder how much we'll really miss Shevon next year. Here's a fun search using College Basketball Reference's player finder:

http://cbbref.com/tiny/P3vVL

Shevon is the only center in at least the last six years to play more than 500 minutes (he played 699), have a usage rate greater than 24.0%, and have a turnover percentage greater than 23.0%. The list goes to 44 if you include guards and forwards, but it's still incredibly rare for an offense to rely so much on someone who turns the ball over that frequently. We won't have the same advantage on the boards next year, but we're unlikely to be at such a disadvantage in the turnover battle.

All of this comes with the caveat that college bigs who can find their a** with both hands are pretty rare as well. If Danny/Relvao/Temara aren't ready to contribute next year, that means our only post offense comes from Jalen, and Otis/Marquise/Jaire/Jalen have to carry the scoring load night in and night out.

One other thing worth noting is that Shevon and Marko formed a very bad defensive frontcourt. Marko was a traffic cone and Shevon was too slow to help effectively in the paint. Our opponents scored 106.1 points per 100 possessions last season - I will bet money that number drops significantly next year.

 

[Herndon]

Shevon is the only center in at least the last six years to play more than 500 minutes (he played 699), have a usage rate greater than 24.0%, and have a turnover percentage greater than 23.0%.

That's a hell of a stat! Good find, Buckets!

That said, Shevon had the best defensive rating on the team, so I think maybe it's a little disingenuous to think we're going to improve defensively by virtue of him not being on the court.