Best case scenario has been playing out with SBU tearing it up!
Here is what we need now for 3 teams - URI is in. Done deal. If SBU wins out till semi's, then they should be good too, and then either URI or SBU can withstand a loss in the semi's. Whichever team pulls off the upset in the semis' would then need to win the final as well to steal a 3rd spot.
Since a 3rd team getting the autobid would require URI and SBU losing, ideal scenario would be for the 4 or 5 seed to knock off URI in semi's and SBU in finals.
Totally agree with your assessment, and it's fun to think about, as unlikely as it is. If Davidson catches fire from 3 during the tournament then watch out.
Thing I want to mention: it's very possible that URI is seeded way, way below where you might guess based on their #18 overall ranking. I'm no bracketologist but the people I follow who seem to know what they're talking about keep pointing out a few things:
A) Rankings mean nothing for tournament seeding. Your rank is a projection of how good national media thinks you are, while your seed is theoretically a more objective assessment of your season-long achievements.
B) Rhode Island's signature wins against Seton Hall and Providence are rapidly losing their shine.
C) The A10 is garbage and historically, teams that dominate bad conferences don't get seeded very high.
I think most people are guessing a 4-6 seed but 7-9 seems just as likely.