The 5-10 logjam

[Bricker]

As of today, there are four teams with 5-10 records in the conference:

Fordham, Duquesne, UMass, and St. Louis

So I was thinking-- what chance does Mason have at finishing 12th or better in the league and avoiding the dreaded PIG? The only game between the remaining 5 and 10's is Fordham vs. Duquesne next week.

Let's talk matchups and figure this thing out.

Remaning schedules (and my guesses in parentheses)

Fordham: (1-2; beats DUQ on the road)
Davidson
@ Duquesne
URI

Duquesne: (0-3; although they have not won since Jan and might be due)
Richmond
Fordham
@ St. Joe's

UMass: (1-2; tough finishing schedule but takes LaSalle at home)
@Bonnies
@URI
LaSalle

St. Louis: (0-3; loses rock fight to LaSalle in overtime and folds)
@St. Joe's
@LaSalle
Bonnies


If GMU goes 2-1 to finish out A-10 play, that puts us at 6 wins and a 10th place finish. That would be incredible-- and it's totally possible...right...RIGHT?

Discuss.

 

[gmu05]

Don't four teams play on Wednesday now for the conference tourney? There isn't just a single play-in game like there was two years ago.

 

[GSII]

yes, 11 plays 14 and 12 plays 13 on wed. I think.

 

[gmujim92]

Let's just win 'em all, avoid the PIG, then win the A-10 tournament and go to the NCAAs with a 17-18 record.

That would be epic.

 

[MasonFanatic]

Let's just win 'em all, avoid the PIG, then win the A-10 tournament and go to the NCAAs with a 17-18 record.

That would be epic.

And play in a 2 vs 15 game against Miami?

 

[GSII]

question, if we played like last night, do we beat Dayton, st joes and st bonnies?

 

[Bricker]

question, if we played like last, do we beat Dayton, st joes and st bonnies?

maybe, possibly, and yes

 

[GMUSig03]

Let's just win 'em all, avoid the PIG, then win the A-10 tournament and go to the NCAAs with a 17-18 record.

That would be epic.

Did 118 take over your account?

 

[smccart5]

My head is in the clouds so I'm predicting a March run.

And by "run" i mean we make it past the play in game...

 

[psyclone]

Here are the brackets for the A10:

http://www.atlantic10.com/fls/31600/pdfs/2016_MBB_Bracket.pdf?CONTENT_ID=1375162&DB_OEM_ID=31600

Assuming we're one of the four teams in the 2 "play-in" games and win that first game, because the top 4 teams get a double-bye, we'd then play either the #5 or #6 seed (currently GW and Davidson respectively) in the second round.

If we finish 9th or 10th and avoid that first play-in round, our first game would be against the 8th or 7th seed.

Seeding tie-breakers are as follows:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/atl10/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/tiebreaker2010.pdf

 

[patriotchild]

Given that 3 of our 4 wins are against the top half of the league, its now starting to make me think we actually underachieved this year.

We should have won at Davidson and GW at home. We've played the top tier of the league pretty well and were in most games. Unfortunately, we missed clear opportunities against UMass and SLU (and that will also hurt even if we win out). Holding on in 2 or all 4 of these games would have put us in the middle, and possibly into the upper half, of the league which is crazy to think about.

Since we haven't sustained our performance consistently, vcu might just be another tease of things to come next year, rather than right now.

But, I dare say, I wouldn't be totally surprised to win these last 3 games. Although, it's equally possible we lose all three.


They won the 2 games I really wanted, homecoming and vcu at home. All the other wins are gravy for me this year.

I've had a blast this year and feel like we've won way more than we've lost. As someone mentioned in another thread, we may have been the worst 24 win team under Hewitt, and winning felt like losing.

Even if we end up losing 20 games this year, I still feel like we've won.

 

[gmu05]

We definitely underachieved this year

 

[Bricker]

We definitely underachieved this year

True. And I'm ok with that. All I wanted was a glimpse into the future. Looks pretty bright to me.

Must win game today, if you can even call it that. Let's see a great end of season run from a team with nothing to lose!

 

[gmujim92]

Underachieved? With this roster?

Seriously?

No offense, but some of you guys are f*cking nuts.

 

[Jack Strop]

If Mason places third-to-last or better then our boys most definitely OVER-achieved. Remember, the team was predicted to be mired at second-to-last in the A-10.

Win at LaSalle today and Mason at least MEETS its expectation.

 

[Son-of-a-Gunston]

I don't see much of a chance of skipping past the play-in round.

We'd have to overtake three teams ahead of us in the standings. Aside from St. Louis, the other current 5-10 teams hold the head-to-head tie breaker. Mason would have to have a superior record over UMass and Fordham. We split with St. Louis, but own the tie-braker due to our magnificent vcu victory. Richmond, at 6-9, would have to lose out and Mason would have to win out to overtake them.

The only way to come close to achieve a play-in bye is to win out and hope at least three of the teams ahead of us lose their last three. I don't see that happening even if Mason does win out.

Mason's fate, or bye potential, will be a lot more clear after today's games.

 

[GMUSig03]

Underachieved? With this roster?

Seriously?

No offense, but some of you guys are f*cking nuts.

The fact that anyone could say we under achieved this year, with a straight face, shows how much we over achieved - by showing flashes that make people think we should actually be better. The flashes (Ok. St., Ole Miss, Davidson, Richmond, vcu, nearly beating GW) are the overachievement, everything else is what should have been expected.

 

[EXpatriot13]

So, 11th - 14th is looking like what's in the cards for us. Seems like we'll probably just stay where we currently are, 13th.

 

[psyclone]

So, 11th - 14th is looking like what's in the cards for us. Seems like we'll probably just stay where we currently are, 13th.

Looks that way to me as well. A first round game with St. Louis, perhaps?

BTW, what happened to Duquesne? They've lost 7 in a row and are working their way into the "first four".

 

[gmujim92]

The fact that anyone could say we under achieved this year, with a straight face, shows how much we over achieved - by showing flashes that make people think we should actually be better. The flashes (Ok. St., Ole Miss, Davidson, Richmond, vcu, nearly beating GW) are the overachievement, everything else is what should have been expected.

I'm sure others will disagree, but I'm actually far more encouraged by the quality of some of our wins than discouraged by our losses.

Considering our youth, being able to stand toe-to-toe with good teams is one sign of a program with a high ceiling.

Much prefer that to being mediocre and only able to beat other bad teams, while getting blown out by quality opponents.

We have one hell of a coaching staff. Consistency will come with experience and improved depth.