Shooting

[Petey Buckets]

I figure this deserves its own thread because the win total doesn't improve until the three-point shooting improves. It's tough to give accurate context about how bad we were last season:

- Mason ranked near the bottom of the country in three-point shooting at 29.2% (172/589), good for 343rd out of 351 teams.
- We only had one player over 35% from deep (Otis). Marko shot 32%, and everyone else with more than 20 attempts shot under 30%.
- Overall field goal percentage was also very bad at 40.6%, 321st out of 351 teams.

So far this season we're even worse from three and that's with one game against a D3 school:

- 17.5% (7/40), 330th out of 336 qualifying schools

Here are the percentages by player:

Kameron Murrell: 3/7, 42.9%
Jaire Grayer: 2/6, 33.3%
Otis Livingston: 2/12, 16.7%
Karmari Newman: 0/7, 0.0%
Ian Boyd: 0/3, 0.0%
Deandre Abram: 0/3, 0.0%
Justin Kier: 0/2, 0.0%

I posted this partially to marvel at how bad the shooting has been, but also to recalibrate how we look at games. Even marginal improvements could mean big things - that Towson game, for instance, looks a lot different if we hit 7/22 (still below NCAA average) instead of 4/22 like we did. I think in a lot of cases we're still blaming intangibles (youth, inexperience, intensity, focus) when the reality is that we'd be patting ourselves on the back about our progress if a few more shots fall. I know our poor shooting has been attributed to youth, but the point remains that a sharpshooter would paper over a lot of other errors and we don't have one right now.

There's nothing that would improve our win percentage quicker than consistent outside shooting, and I don't know if we're going to get it this season. If we don't have a guard or two step up and start hitting threes at a high rate on high volume, it's going to be another long season.

 

[MasonSAE4]

Maybe with Kam its confidence and the few he hit yesterday will keep him rolling. I feel like Otis's percentage is a bit screwed as it feels like he's the one tasked with putting up the three as the shot clock runs out (which we keep doing). But I agree it's been tough to watch. Newman has not only missed everything, none of his have been close.

 

[GSII]

See other LVC game thread about bringing in a transfer. This is an area (improving shooting) I feel DP gambled on partly. Nothing wrong with inserting an expierneced transfer shooter to take the edge of your freshman.

 

[gmujim92]

See other LVC game thread about bringing in a transfer. This is an area (improving shooting) I feel DP gambled on partly. Nothing wrong with inserting an expierneced transfer shooter to take the edge of your freshman.

Even if DP wanted to -- hell, we don't know that he didn't try to land one -- what transfer of any quality is going to sign on with a rebuilding program that has no chance of dancing before his eligibility expires?

The vast majority of transfers leave their original schools because they weren't good enough to get on the court. We don't need to be bringing in anyone who fits that description.

You can actually do more long-term damage by bringing in a transfer who doesn't pan out because it's a double whammy: you don't get the on-court results and your young players don't get to play and develop.

 

[Falco]

I figure this deserves its own thread because the win total doesn't improve until the three-point shooting improves. It's tough to give accurate context about how bad we were last season:

- Mason ranked near the bottom of the country in three-point shooting at 29.2% (172/589), good for 343rd out of 351 teams.
- We only had one player over 35% from deep (Otis). Marko shot 32%, and everyone else with more than 20 attempts shot under 30%.
- Overall field goal percentage was also very bad at 40.6%, 321st out of 351 teams.

So far this season we're even worse from three and that's with one game against a D3 school:

- 17.5% (7/40), 330th out of 336 qualifying schools

Here are the percentages by player:

Kameron Murrell: 3/7, 42.9%
Jaire Grayer: 2/6, 33.3%
Otis Livingston: 2/12, 16.7%
Karmari Newman: 0/7, 0.0%
Ian Boyd: 0/3, 0.0%
Deandre Abram: 0/3, 0.0%
Justin Kier: 0/2, 0.0%

I posted this partially to marvel at how bad the shooting has been, but also to recalibrate how we look at games. Even marginal improvements could mean big things - that Towson game, for instance, looks a lot different if we hit 7/22 (still below NCAA average) instead of 4/22 like we did. I think in a lot of cases we're still blaming intangibles (youth, inexperience, intensity, focus) when the reality is that we'd be patting ourselves on the back about our progress if a few more shots fall. I know our poor shooting has been attributed to youth, but the point remains that a sharpshooter would paper over a lot of other errors and we don't have one right now.

There's nothing that would improve our win percentage quicker than consistent outside shooting, and I don't know if we're going to get it this season. If we don't have a guard or two step up and start hitting threes at a high rate on high volume, it's going to be another long season.

Finally someone who can articulate my thoughts and did their homework! I didn't look up the stats but the eye test could tell me this team needs a shooter. Everyone keeps saying we are young. However, 40% of our starting lineup consists of seniors (2 out of 5).

Do we have any scholarships left? I hope someone transfers and we can get a JUCO shooter next season.

Hate on me all you want but its an immediate need. We have a great team just a piece away.

 

[Falco]

Even if DP wanted to -- hell, we don't know that he didn't try to land one -- what transfer of any quality is going to sign on with a rebuilding program that has no chance of dancing before his eligibility expires?

The vast majority of transfers leave their original schools because they weren't good enough to get on the court. We don't need to be bringing in anyone who fits that description.

You can actually do more long-term damage by bringing in a transfer who doesn't pan out because it's a double whammy: you don't get the on-court results and your young players don't get to play and develop.

I generally agree with your point about transfer athletes from a 4 year school. But how do you feel about a Junior College transfer?

 

[Pablo]

Let's give the freshmen some time to adjust. I expect Newman & Kier will be efficient shooters behind the arc.

 

[mkaufman1]

Shooting is definitely an area of concern but lets not forget:

1) 2 games, small sample (still very concerning but small sample)
2) Still playing several freshmen who are playing NCAA ball for the first time.

That being said, shooting could be bad throughout this year (at the very least very inconsistent). But like Pablo and many others have said, we have to give some time for these kids to fully adjust to the Division 1 game.

If by the middle of the year we haven't seen glimpses, I'll definitely be concerned though.

 

[gmutom]

I think Petey brings up good points about our shooting woes, which is obviously important for a team that will be playing mostly 4-guard lineups. If a D3 team was smart enough to pack in a zone against us, it won't be long before every DI opponent figures it out.

What I have to keep reminding myself after watching missed shot after missed shot is that it is going to take time before the game slows down for our freshmen and even some of our sophomores. It has to be humbling for guys like Justin, Kamari and Ian to feel like you are playing in slow motion compared to older players. Trust me, it's not as easy as Otis and Jairre made it look last year.

Once the dust settles and our young guys get more acclimated, I'm sure we'll see our freshmen guards resemble their shooting track record from high school. Until then, brace for a lot more clanks, airballs and groans from the stands.

 

[GSII]

Bc Jason Miskiri did so much damage. Why did he and Keith Holdan commit here in Jim L's first year following the dumpster fire of one Paul Westhead? Not buying it. Plenty of guys at lower conferences that would and could shoot the 3 at a decent clip for us.

 

[gmujim92]

Bc Jason Miskiri did so much damage. Why did he and Keith Holdan commit here in Jim L's first year following the dumpster fire of one Paul Westhead? Not buying it. Plenty of guys at lower conferences that would and could shoot the 3 at a decent clip for us.

Newsflash: It's not 1997 and we're not in the CAA anymore. This rebuild is going to be a lot harder than the last one.

 

[psyclone]

Let's give the freshmen some time to adjust. I expect Newman & Kier will be efficient shooters behind the arc.

Pablo's back! Welcome to the jungle!

 

[GSII]

Newsflash: It's not 1997 and we're not in the CAA anymore. This rebuild is going to be a lot harder than the last one.

Doesnt matter what year or conference we are in. Programs do what they gotta do to win.

 

[mason89]

Let's give the freshmen some time to adjust. I expect Newman & Kier will be efficient shooters behind the arc.

Good to have you back, Pablo!

 

[Pablo]

Newsflash: It's not 1997 and we're not in the CAA anymore. This rebuild is going to be a lot harder than the last one.

True, but I have no doubt that other coaches (such as Larranaga) would have pursued transfers in this situation just as GS has stated. But, I'm willing to be patient with Coach Paulsen's approach. Really, we have no choice given there are currently no scholarships available until the recruiting class of 2019.

 

[gmujim92]

True, but I have no doubt that other coaches (such as Larranaga) would have pursued transfers in this situation just as GS has stated. But, I'm willing to be patient with Coach Paulsen's approach. Really, we have no choice given there are currently no scholarships available until the recruiting class of 2019.

Once again, if someone here has definitive proof that DP has not pursued any transfers, I welcome them to present it.

It doesn't seem to fit with his strategy for building the program long term.

But we're assuming that because we haven't landed any, the staff hasn't tried.

 

[Pablo]

Once again, if someone here has definitive proof that DP has not pursued any transfers, I welcome them to present it.

It doesn't seem to fit with his strategy for building the program long term.

But we're assuming that because we haven't landed any, the staff hasn't tried.

He doesn't appear to be a coach who often pursues transfers - see http://articles.mcall.com/2014-01-2...tball-transfers-patriot-league-charles-hinkle:

"Dave Paulsen has had one — current grad student Brian Fitzpatrick — in his five seasons at Bucknell."

 

[GSII]

Once again, if someone here has definitive proof that DP has not pursued any transfers, I welcome them to present it.

It doesn't seem to fit with his strategy for building the program long term.

But we're assuming that because we haven't landed any, the staff hasn't tried.

He has said it himself. Was before Towson game on some sports talk show espn 980.

But who cares if we go to the dance in next 2 years or next 7. As long as our guys make good grades, go to class and graduate. Thats whats important. March Madness is for losers.

 

[gmubrian]

Petey-that is basically what I was thinking watching the LVC game. I referenced it in the thread that I hope Jim is right, who stated (going from memory in case I misstate it slightly) that we should expect that to improve.

What I am wondering, is there statistical evidence that would give us hope on that front? Not sure what to look for. Whether teams that shot very poorly early in the season shot better later in the season? Since Pablo is back, any thoughts?

On a side note, welcome back Pablo! I was worried when you completely disappeared since last season. Didn't know if something had happened to you.

 

[Falco]

Once again, if someone here has definitive proof that DP has not pursued any transfers, I welcome them to present it.

It doesn't seem to fit with his strategy for building the program long term.

But we're assuming that because we haven't landed any, the staff hasn't tried.

He has said it himself. Was before Towson game on some sports talk show espn 980.

But who cares if we go to the dance in next 2 years or next 7. As long as our guys make good grades, go to class and graduate. Thats whats important. March Madness is for losers.

I hope this was a sarcastic post.