OT: Someone Get GMUBrian a drink and put him on suicide watch......

[gmubrian]

I think the bottom line of it is this. EV's are sort of a 1 trick pony at this point (maybe two-performance and local driving). I just don't see a typical family (if there is such a thing at this point) with two parents and a kid or two living in the suburbs being able to go all electric. I can see one electric and one all gas or hybrid. I see us a long way off from a typical household being to go all electric cars. There needs to be a LOT more market penetration combined with major improvements in charging speed (or an alternative like 5 minute battery swaps) to have any hope of supplanting gas powered vehicles.

 

[GMU79]

I think the bottom line of it is this. EV's are sort of a 1 trick pony at this point (maybe two-performance and local driving). I just don't see a typical family (if there is such a thing at this point) with two parents and a kid or two living in the suburbs being able to go all electric. I can see one electric and one all gas or hybrid. I see us a long way off from a typical household being to go all electric cars. There needs to be a LOT more market penetration combined with major improvements in charging speed (or an alternative like 5 minute battery swaps) to have any hope of supplanting gas powered vehicles.

Agreed. We are a long way off.

 

[Pikapppatri8]

I think the bottom line of it is this. EV's are sort of a 1 trick pony at this point (maybe two-performance and local driving). I just don't see a typical family (if there is such a thing at this point) with two parents and a kid or two living in the suburbs being able to go all electric. I can see one electric and one all gas or hybrid. I see us a long way off from a typical household being to go all electric cars. There needs to be a LOT more market penetration combined with major improvements in charging speed (or an alternative like 5 minute battery swaps) to have any hope of supplanting gas powered vehicles.

I would agree in principle - and trust me I have nerded out on this one in ways that make me even nervous. The most cost effective use cases are commuting and local driving. However that change is coming.


Here is where I think this change is coming faster than you think. One -- Battery technology is evolving rapidly where Tesla has their tabless 4680 battery that doesn't use Cobalt. It has more energy density, shortens charging times and makes discharging and charging less stressful on the battery giving it about 2400 charges before it goes below 80% capacity which is industry standards for changing out a battery pack in an EV for a new one. With their average range at 350 miles per charge -- that is about 875,000 mile battery. The motors and transfer case/transmission last much longer. That is a lot of miles. The ranges are coming up continuously making them practical. Lucid's baseline sedan which is very nice starts out at 406 miles per charge and can scale to 500 miles. That is impressive.

New Lithium-Iron batteries are enabling cheaper batteries that can be configured in different form factors that eliminate the need for heavy liquid cooling which reduces weight and increases range. There are companies in the US and Korea that are scaling up production of these batteries. Tesla and Lucid are looking into these. If the cost decrease, range increase, and reduction in maintenance costs keep trending -- soon ICE cars will not be cost competitive. GM is working with a small company in Michigan on making solid state batteries practical. And they are making progress. If they achieve that -- that is the holy grail and then its game over. ICE cannot compete on range, cost, and practicality.

Add to that more and more chargers showing up and family trips in an electric SUV will be more common. You cannot go to a parking lot in Loudoun without seeing at least 5 Teslas. In my neighborhood - 10-15% of the cars in driveways are Teslas. You also see some Mach Es.

The biggest losers in this are the Germans., They slept on this and are in deep shit. The Sr VP of engineering at BMW says Tesla is an existential threat to their existence. VW's laughable launch of the ID3 and the evaluation of their engineering behind it (Google Munro on Youtube - great consulting organization of old experienced auto engineering talent - they do constant comparisons).

The US, Japan and China are the leaders in this space - with the US being in the Pole Position.

 

[GMU79]

I would agree in principle - and trust me I have nerded out on this one in ways that make me even nervous. The most cost effective use cases are commuting and local driving. However that change is coming.


Here is where I think this change is coming faster than you think. One -- Battery technology is evolving rapidly where Tesla has their tabless 4680 battery that doesn't use Cobalt. It has more energy density, shortens charging times and makes discharging and charging less stressful on the battery giving it about 2400 charges before it goes below 80% capacity which is industry standards for changing out a battery pack in an EV for a new one. With their average range at 350 miles per charge -- that is about 875,000 mile battery. The motors and transfer case/transmission last much longer. That is a lot of miles. The ranges are coming up continuously making them practical. Lucid's baseline sedan which is very nice starts out at 406 miles per charge and can scale to 500 miles. That is impressive.

New Lithium-Iron batteries are enabling cheaper batteries that can be configured in different form factors that eliminate the need for heavy liquid cooling which reduces weight and increases range. There are companies in the US and Korea that are scaling up production of these batteries. Tesla and Lucid are looking into these. If the cost decrease, range increase, and reduction in maintenance costs keep trending -- soon ICE cars will not be cost competitive. GM is working with a small company in Michigan on making solid state batteries practical. And they are making progress. If they achieve that -- that is the holy grail and then its game over. ICE cannot compete on range, cost, and practicality.

Add to that more and more chargers showing up and family trips in an electric SUV will be more common. You cannot go to a parking lot in Loudoun without seeing at least 5 Teslas. In my neighborhood - 10-15% of the cars in driveways are Teslas. You also see some Mach Es.

The biggest losers in this are the Germans., They slept on this and are in deep shit. The Sr VP of engineering at BMW says Tesla is an existential threat to their existence. VW's laughable launch of the ID3 and the evaluation of their engineering behind it (Google Munro on Youtube - great consulting organization of old experienced auto engineering talent - they do constant comparisons).

The US, Japan and China are the leaders in this space - with the US being in the Pole Position.

That all makes sense, but most folks don't live in Loudon or Fairfax. I'm glad the range is increasing, but until folks out of our major cities metro areas have ready access, and you can pull off of an exit on the rural interstate and charge up in 5 minutes, people just won't be buying.
And car manufacturers can't put the cart before the horse. The infrastructure has to come before the cars, not the other way around.

 

[tblack33]

I think the bottom line of it is this. EV's are sort of a 1 trick pony at this point (maybe two-performance and local driving). I just don't see a typical family (if there is such a thing at this point) with two parents and a kid or two living in the suburbs being able to go all electric. I can see one electric and one all gas or hybrid. I see us a long way off from a typical household being to go all electric cars. There needs to be a LOT more market penetration combined with major improvements in charging speed (or an alternative like 5 minute battery swaps) to have any hope of supplanting gas powered vehicles.

I've always wondered why battery swaps weren't the preferred method of recharging. That seems like the most viable method that is comparable to filling up a gas tank, but I'm guessing there are reasons why it's not feasible to trade out batteries every couple weeks.

 

[Pikapppatri8]

That all makes sense, but most folks don't live in Loudon or Fairfax. I'm glad the range is increasing, but until folks out of our major cities metro areas have ready access, and you can pull off of an exit on the rural interstate and charge up in 5 minutes, people just won't be buying.
And car manufacturers can't put the cart before the horse. The infrastructure has to come before the cars, not the other way around.

Look at other places - the percentage of EVs increases every year. The average range on the cars sold is about 95% of what an average tank of gas gets you and soon it will exceed that. I see large numbers of Teslas in Maryland, I have seen them in Florida and in California and Colorado (business travel). The Tesla chargers can get you 80 percent in about 15 minutes now with it planned to be to 10 minutes in a year.

That change is coming faster and faster. I am considering a Lucid Air after I sell the mercedes.

At 405 range per charge it will meet my range needs as the Mercedes gets about 320 miles per tank.

 

[tblack33]

That all makes sense, but most folks don't live in Loudon or Fairfax. I'm glad the range is increasing, but until folks out of our major cities metro areas have ready access, and you can pull off of an exit on the rural interstate and charge up in 5 minutes, people just won't be buying.
And car manufacturers can't put the cart before the horse. The infrastructure has to come before the cars, not the other way around.

I think you'd be surprised at the charging infrastructure in VA. Agree that places in the midwest and other flyover states still have a bit to go, but there are more charging stations than you'd think in central / southwest VA off the beaten path, and it is only increasing every year.

 

[Pikapppatri8]

I've always wondered why battery swaps weren't the preferred method of recharging. That seems like the most viable method that is comparable to filling up a gas tank, but I'm guessing there are reasons why it's not feasible to trade out batteries every couple weeks.

You can and its being done with some smaller models and brands that use the same battery config. Most makers have different dimension battery packs per model. But these are quick swaps not battery changes.

You also have an issue with car makers using the battery as a structural component of the car to reduce manufacturing time and cost as well as increasing crash safety. You can still change the batteries but they won't be a quick swap.

Also charging times are coming down on the new battery technology that makes the issue moot.

 

[GMU79]

Look at other places - the percentage of EVs increases every year. The average range on the cars sold is about 95% of what an average tank of gas gets you and soon it will exceed that. I see large numbers of Teslas in Maryland, I have seen them in Florida and in California and Colorado (business travel). The Tesla chargers can get you 80 percent in about 15 minutes now with it planned to be to 10 minutes in a year.

That change is coming faster and faster. I am considering a Lucid Air after I sell the mercedes.

At 405 range per charge it will meet my range needs as the Mercedes gets about 320 miles per tank.

Perhaps the change is coming faster than I realize. I'm not against it, I just don't want, as my dad used to say, "to get caught with my pants down."

 

[Pikapppatri8]

Perhaps the change is coming faster than I realize. I'm not against it, I just don't want, as my dad used to say, "to get caught with my pants down."

I am with you - and I used to be dead set against electric cars and there is something about hearing that engine roar and the smell.

But the cost factors and economies of scale are pulling the manufacturers in the direction of EVs. A single motor/battery platform can support multiple models. It makes more business sense to go there.

I agree that this is still 2-5 years off. But companies like GM, Ford, Rivian, Tesla, and Lucid are making large factories in the US to include battery research and production facilities.

 

[GMUgemini]

That all makes sense, but most folks don't live in Loudon or Fairfax. I'm glad the range is increasing, but until folks out of our major cities metro areas have ready access, and you can pull off of an exit on the rural interstate and charge up in 5 minutes, people just won't be buying.
And car manufacturers can't put the cart before the horse. The infrastructure has to come before the cars, not the other way around.

A vast majority of the country does live in areas like Loudoun or Fairfax, though. And VERY few people drive more than 50 miles a day on a day-to-day basis, and it’s not like it’s a 300 mile round trip from a rural area into the grocery store. A friend who farms in Skull Valley drives about 20 miles to go to the grocery store, for example — 40 mile round trip (her farm also runs on solar energy and she uses Plug-in Electric equipment to get around on the farm now).

The real challenge will be converting long haul trucking over. That is what is going to take time.

Edit: there is a compromise, which are plug-in HEVs. Some of them, like the Honda Clarity, have the kind range for daily commuting without using gas, but also have a combustion engine to make long haul trips convenient.

 

[JimP]

That is how I afford higher end cars - get them off a lease and they are reconditioned, you can demand new wheels and have extended coverage. I got a Mercedes and Porsche that

Not a car guy either. I drive a '96 Camry with 315K on it.
I'll go electric or hybrid when I can charge them at any gas station in the country in the same 3 minutes it takes me to fill up with gas, and then drive for 400 miles on one charge.

315K - Nice! I was well on my way to 200K with '00 Honda Accord when a pothole on 81 North in PA swallowed the vehicle. Pretty much broke the frame of my car in 2, though it lasted a couple more weeks. Now aiming for 200K with '11 Corolla.

 

[CHRISTOPHER JAMES JOLLAY]

A vast majority of the country does live in areas like Loudoun or Fairfax, though. And VERY few people drive more than 50 miles a day on a day-to-day basis, and it’s not like it’s a 300 mile round trip from a rural area into the grocery store. A friend who farms in Skull Valley drives about 20 miles to go to the grocery store, for example — 40 mile round trip (her farm also runs on solar energy and she uses Plug-in Electric equipment to get around on the farm now).

The real challenge will be converting long haul trucking over. That is what is going to take time.

Edit: there is a compromise, which are plug-in HEVs. Some of them, like the Honda Clarity, have the kind range for daily commuting without using gas, but also have a combustion engine to make long haul trips convenient.

It just simply isn't true that VERY few people drive more than 50 miles a day on a daily basis. Shit, cars are now driven an average of 13500 miles a year, which is 37 miles a day. In a state like Georgia drivers put an AVERAGE of 52 miles a day on their cars.

More than 10% of workers who commute to work drive more than 60 miles just to a job, and that stat is from 15 years ago before home prices exploded and people moved further and further out. I know countless West Virginians that drive into NOVA every day.

Quit peddling f**king lies on this sacred forum or I'll have you banned. The moderator on here, Cat Laufmann is a good friend of mine who commutes long miles to attend Mason games.

 

[CHRISTOPHER JAMES JOLLAY]

The Sr VP of engineering at BMW says Tesla is an existential threat to their existence.

Oh f**king horseshit. Like I said, I just put down a custom order on an m3 that'll get my wife f**king me once every two weeks instead of every other month.

And their little gay i3 is fine for under 50k.

 

[GMU79]

A vast majority of the country does live in areas like Loudoun or Fairfax, though. And VERY few people drive more than 50 miles a day on a day-to-day basis, and it’s not like it’s a 300 mile round trip from a rural area into the grocery store. A friend who farms in Skull Valley drives about 20 miles to go to the grocery store, for example — 40 mile round trip (her farm also runs on solar energy and she uses Plug-in Electric equipment to get around on the farm now).

The real challenge will be converting long haul trucking over. That is what is going to take time.

Edit: there is a compromise, which are plug-in HEVs. Some of them, like the Honda Clarity, have the kind range for daily commuting without using gas, but also have a combustion engine to make long haul trips convenient.

Typical big city elite answer. It works for us, so hey, it should work for everybody.
You don't have a clue about living in Lee or Wise and how they went without a hospital within 50 miles for years. Or how it's an hour on snakepath roads to a decent restaurant, grocery store, or even a Wal-Mart.
Even if the "vast majority" of people did live in places like Loudon or Fairfax, which they don't, so what? The other people don't matter?
Again, I'm not against EVs, but yes, it's a looong way off from being a realistic purchase for millions of people.

 

[Pikapppatri8]

Oh f**king horseshit. Like I said, I just put down a custom order on an m3 that'll get my wife f**king me once every two weeks instead of every other month.

And their little gay i3 is fine for under 50k.

No not bullshit. In fact there were multiple articles published in Germany on that issue.

The Germans are behind on electric vehicles. They initially laughed at Elon Musk because they said while he could engineer - he couldn't manufacture. Well Elon now has the largest stamping press in the world which he patented and bought 20% of the italian company that made it. He can make the entire front end and rear end of the Model Y and Model 3 in one stamping with the battery pack as a structural link between the two. Typically a front and rear end assembly has over 400 welds and 160 parts. Tesla stamps them out in one piece.

BMW has been trying to do this for 15 years and couldn't get it done. Once again the Senior VP of Engineering at BMW congratulated Tesla for the achievement on Twitter and said the German car industry needs to get off their complacent butts and start competing.

To note -- It has been interests funded by the German auto industry trying to prevent the opening of the Giga Plant in Berlin.

 

[Pikapppatri8]

Oh f**king horseshit. Like I said, I just put down a custom order on an m3 that'll get my wife f**king me once every two weeks instead of every other month.

And their little gay i3 is fine for under 50k.

The i3 is garbage from a technology perspective.

 

[Quentin Daniels]

Oh f**king horseshit. Like I said, I just put down a custom order on an m3 that'll get my wife f**king me once every two weeks instead of every other month.

And their little gay i3 is fine for under 50k.

Nobody tell him that she'll be going back to the monthly schedule once she has the car in hand.

 

[GMUgemini]

Typical big city elite answer. It works for us, so hey, it should work for everybody.
You don't have a clue about living in Lee or Wise and how they went without a hospital within 50 miles for years. Or how it's an hour on snakepath roads to a decent restaurant, grocery store, or even a Wal-Mart.
Even if the "vast majority" of people did live in places like Loudon or Fairfax, which they don't, so what? The other people don't matter?
Again, I'm not against EVs, but yes, it's a looong way off from being a realistic purchase for millions of people.

There are a lot of assumptions built in here about how I grew up, who my parents are and how they grew up, as well as my wife and her parents.

But to argue the points. One, 83% of Americans live in what would be considered an urban area (city + suburb). So, yes, the vast majority do (take Arizona, where I live, for example, 7.3 million people; 4.9 million live in the Phoenix metro area, another 1 million live in Tucson metro, another 139,000 live in Flagstaff -- that's 83% of the population of the state).

Two, the range on the new F-150 EV is 230 miles (or 300 miles for the long range version), so even if you had to travel 50 miles to the nearest hospital (this is not something you do daily, unless you work there) you're still within the range of an EV (the long range Tesla S is 400 miles, by the way). And considering you charge it at your home, you will have a full tank every single day, unlike an internal combustion engine, which requires a trip to the gas station.

Three, very few people are going to be traveling 150+ miles away from their homes by necessity daily in their personal vehicle. What you are describing is more recreational driving. Yes, my road trips from Arizona to Los Angeles or San Diego would become longer/harder and take more planning (right now we stop in Blythe at the McDonalds and gas up there before finishing the rest of the drive -- sometimes Quartzsite on the border for the "Very Fresh Jerky," which actually is really good, even if it's also really expensive) in an EV right now, but even then you could make it from Wise to Winston-Salem on a single charge. I could drive from my home to Williams where the Grand Canyon Railway is and take the train to the Grand Canyon while the car charges. I'd say for at least 95% of the driving age population, the current EVs would work for their needs, if they were within the means to buying them (price is probably a bigger barrier than logistics right now).

Four, no one is saying rip out all the gas stations and force everyone to buy an electric vehicle (I believe the current goal is for 50% of new cars sales be full EVs by 2030). I even offered up a compromise (bridge car), like a plug-in electric hybrid (PHEV). Something like a Honda Clarity, or a PHEV version of the Chrysler Pacifica (which still have a 3.6L V6 with 260 bhp, which kicks in after the first 32 miles of charge), there are a lot of options out there from your standard Prius to an Audi A8 to a Bentley to even a Ferrari if that's your jam.

 

[GMU79]

There are a lot of assumptions built in here about how I grew up, who my parents are and how they grew up, as well as my wife and her parents.

But to argue the points. One, 83% of Americans live in what would be considered an urban area (city + suburb). So, yes, the vast majority do (take Arizona, where I live, for example, 7.3 million people; 4.9 million live in the Phoenix metro area, another 1 million live in Tucson metro, another 139,000 live in Flagstaff -- that's 83% of the population of the state).

Two, the range on the new F-150 EV is 230 miles (or 300 miles for the long range version), so even if you had to travel 50 miles to the nearest hospital (this is not something you do daily, unless you work there) you're still within the range of an EV (the long range Tesla S is 400 miles, by the way). And considering you charge it at your home, you will have a full tank every single day, unlike an internal combustion engine, which requires a trip to the gas station.

Three, very few people are going to be traveling 150+ miles away from their homes by necessity daily in their personal vehicle. What you are describing is more recreational driving. Yes, my road trips from Arizona to Los Angeles or San Diego would become longer/harder and take more planning (right now we stop in Blythe at the McDonalds and gas up there before finishing the rest of the drive -- sometimes Quartzsite on the border for the "Very Fresh Jerky," which actually is really good, even if it's also really expensive) in an EV right now, but even then you could make it from Wise to Winston-Salem on a single charge. I could drive from my home to Williams where the Grand Canyon Railway is and take the train to the Grand Canyon while the car charges. I'd say for at least 95% of the driving age population, the current EVs would work for their needs, if they were within the means to buying them (price is probably a bigger barrier than logistics right now).

Four, no one is saying rip out all the gas stations and force everyone to buy an electric vehicle (I believe the current goal is for 50% of new cars sales be full EVs by 2030). I even offered up a compromise (bridge car), like a plug-in electric hybrid (PHEV). Something like a Honda Clarity, or a PHEV version of the Chrysler Pacifica (which still have a 3.6L V6 with 260 bhp, which kicks in after the first 32 miles of charge), there are a lot of options out there from your standard Prius to an Audi A8 to a Bentley to even a Ferrari if that's your jam.

Yes, I most certainly had your parents as well as your wife and her parents at the forefront of my mind when I wrote my comment.
But to your comments, as I said, I'm not against EVs or hybrids, and maybe the majority do live in the urban/suburban areas, although I do believe your 83% is way too high, my point was really aimed at your "it works for most people in the metro areas so the rest should just get with the game" attitude. Perhaps you didn't mean it that way, but that's the way it came across to me. Without getting politcal, and just as an example, thank goodness for the electoral college. Others may disagree with my reading of your comment, and that's ok.