OT: Conference Realignment

GMUgemini

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UNLV just knocked off Kansas

Rumor is board of regents are attaching Nevada and UNLV (have to be in same conference—why when they weren’t in the same conference until 2012, I don’t know) and PAC doesn’t want Nevada.
 
OP
Pablo

Pablo

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"The four Mountain West schools on the move see the potential for more revenue, even if it’s not at a Power 4 level. They currently receive around $6 million in television money from the Mountain West’s TV deal with Fox, CBS and TNT, a number that likely would’ve been bumped up a bit in the Mountain West’s next TV deal beginning in 2027. The reformed Pac-12 hasn’t taken its rights to market, but the schools’ hope is to draw more than $10-12 million per member from a new TV deal with fewer mouths to feed (for comparison, the Big 12 and ACC distribute around $30 million per school). The league’s Pac-12 Enterprises production company has also proven to be a revenue-generator, even outside college sports. The possible introduction of performance-based revenue sharing could further reward the new league’s most successful members.

The move also stemmed from the realization that the entire collegiate sports model could be overturned in the next few years, whether through the courts or more conference realignment at the end of the decade. Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State wanted to tie themselves to schools that invest more closely to their level, rather than those at the bottom of the Mountain West. The four schools felt this was their last best chance to end up on the right side of whatever the future is."

"The next steps for everyone are still to be determined. The Pac-12 needs at least two more schools to get to eight members and remain recognized as an NCAA and FBS conference beyond 2026, but it could also go to 10, depending on the value. Potential targets to the east include Tulane, Memphis, South Florida, North Texas, UTSA, Rice and Texas State. It could circle back to Mountain West leftovers like UNLV and Air Force if it can’t convince American Athletic Conference schools to make a move. The AAC has the best TV deal in the Group of 5 and ESPN exposure to sell. Perhaps Air Force could join Army and Navy football in that league."

"Gonzaga, located less than 100 miles from Washington State, could be an option, perhaps as a fourth addition to pair with three football schools. That would bring the league to an even 10 members overall and would allow for easy scheduling with nine football-playing teams."

"The Mountain West has been preparing its options for this situation since San Diego State’s initial plan to leave for the old Pac-12 surfaced a year ago, though the league isn’t required to add anyone, with eight football-playing members remaining. Potential targets within the Football Bowl Subdivision could include New Mexico State and UTEP. Down in the FCS, the Mountain West has never gotten far into discussions with schools like North Dakota State, South Dakota State or the Montanas, but perhaps now is that time. There is now a $5 million fee to move up to the FBS, but the Mountain West could have $111 million in exit fees to work with and could perhaps pull from that pool for signing bonuses to entice teams."
 

Falco

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GIVING DAY 2023
Potential targets within the Football Bowl Subdivision could include New Mexico State and UTEP.
New Mexico State would be a great option. Their football program is on the rise, and they came within seconds of beating Auburn last year.

Additionally, the university has a traditional name, which adds credibility.
 
OP
Pablo

Pablo

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"The college football world is still adjusting in the aftermath of the Pac-12's dismantling in 2023.

Now with the once-thought defunct conference attempting a rebirth by poaching four Mountain West schools in 2026, another mad scramble by conferences to snag new members could unfold.

ESPN's Pete Thamel reported Monday that the Air Force Academy, currently a member of the Mountain West, is being targeted by the American Athletic Conference (AAC) to join its ranks. If that move were to come to fruition, then the Mountain West would be under the eight-team minimum for NCAA conferences to be FBS eligible.

The Pac-12, currently consisting of two members — Washington State and Oregon State — is in a two-year grace period after it lost 10 members to the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC this season.

The additions of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State would still leave it two members short of the minimum, meaning more moves are coming.

The AAC's interest in a third service academy — Army and Navy are both current members — would indicate it's bracing for further departures. Memphis and Tulane have been frequently mentioned as additional possibilities to join the Pac-12 and round out its ranks.

The biggest victim if that chaotic chain reaction were to be retriggered: the Mountain West.


It's ironic because the Mountain West essentially threw the Pac-12 a lifeline after it was cannibalized by the other Power Conferences, signing a football scheduling agreement to keep the two remaining members involved as it attempted to recover.

Now that the deal is set to expire after only one season, the Pac-12 will suck the life force out of its ally to sustain its survival in this new college football landscape.

It's unclear how far along talks are for Air Force to potentially join the AAC, but fans should brace themselves for the continued aftershocks of last year's seismic conference realignment."
 
OP
Pablo

Pablo

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"The ACC is working towards presenting a new revenue model and a plan to shorten its grant of rights agreement in exchange for Clemson and Florida State dropping their lawsuits and staying in the conference, according to reports.

The new proposal, created by the two schools, would direct a larger share of revenue to ACC members based on their perceived brand value and media ratings, and would change the expiration date on the conference's grant of rights deal.

ACC presidents first explored a new revenue deal during a meeting in person last week, and continued those talks in a conference call on Tuesday.

The ACC's current grant of rights agreement with ESPN expires in 2036, but under this new proposal, that deal would end in 2030 instead, per reports.

The negotiations remain in the preliminary stage, and it's unknown exactly how much support the measure has, for or against it.

Any new agreement will require a two-thirds majority vote to pass."
 
OP
Pablo

Pablo

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"The Mountain West conference is reportedly 'amid a significant push to keep its core of eight schools together, which includes one-time payments of guaranteed money to the schools,' according to ESPN's Pete Thamel.

The guaranteed payments to all eight schools appear to be an effort to stave off any approaches from the Pac-12, which already poached Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State and San Diego State.

Those payments also include 'large payments' to UNLV and Air Force as rumors circulate that the former is being pursued by the Pac-12 and the latter by the American Athletic Conference.


Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports, meanwhile, reported Monday that the Mountain West has reportedly 'tried to convince members to sign a grant of rights (the conference does not have one).'

"The Pac-12's effort to remain in existence—the six-team conference has until the 2026 season to get to eight schools to qualify for automatic berths into college championships and the College Football Playoff—has created a whirlwind of potential movement around the college landscape.

The conference reportedly has its eyes on Memphis, Tulane, USF, UTSA, UNLV and Utah State, while the AAC is hoping to lure Air Force and UNLV to its conference in an effort to keep schools like Memphis and Tulane.

The stakes are high—the expanded playoff format will include automatic berths for the five highest-rated conference champions. Generally, four of those berths will be expected to go to SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC schools, leaving a fifth automatic berth up for grabs.

So the Pac-12, AAC and Mountain West now appear to be engaged in a battle to be viewed as the fifth strongest conference in the sport, which would obviously give them a leg up on securing a regular playoff berth.


The Mountain West already lost its four strongest football schools—having even more schools poached by the Pac-12 and AAC could make it very difficult for the conference to ever secure that fifth automatic playoff seed."
 
OP
Pablo

Pablo

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Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy

Memphis, Tulane & USF declined offers to join the Pac-12 & will remain in AAC, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. Pac-12 will now look toward schools closer to its geographic footprint, including UNLV, Utah State, Air Force & Gonzaga (basketball only). AAC also looking at Air Force, sources said

2:45 PM · Sep 23, 2024



"The four schools released a joint statement that read, in part: "While we acknowledge receiving interest in our institutions from other conferences, we firmly believe that it is in our individual and collective best interests to uphold our commitment to each other."

Exit fees from the AAC loomed as a big factor, as SMU paid $25 million to leave under a 27-month window. Factoring in revenue loss, it would cost a projected $27.5 million for each school to exit, as the Pac-12 is slated to start play in 2026.

The biggest factor working against the Pac-12 in luring the high-profile AAC programs was that it couldn't guarantee them a set monetary amount. The conference is working with its consulting partner, Navigate, to reconstruct the league. The costs and toll of travel also played a role in the decision-making. Navigate has been at the forefront of the outreach calls for the Pac-12, sources said."

"ESPN has confirmed that Air Force has pledged its commitment to stay in the Mountain West. That is in the form of a memorandum of understanding that will allow the league to work toward a television deal and grant of rights."
 
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OP
Pablo

Pablo

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"The offer to Utah State came amid a hectic day that say the Pac-12 attempting to secure its future. Utah State emerged late in the day as a candidate.

The departure from the Mountain West leaves that league with seven schools, which means they'll need to make one addition to remain an official conference."



"UNLV is expected to re-engage in conversations with the Pac-12 after their commitment to the Mountain West earlier in the day was not formalized, sources told ESPN on Monday evening.

UNLV agreed to an memorandum of understanding to return to the league, but that was predicated on all eight remaining schools agreeing to stay, sources told ESPN.

When Utah State decided not to return and go to the Pac-12, sources said UNLV officials agreed to pause and further explore their options. UNLV was set to take a deal from the Mountain West that included them and Air Force receiving a significant lump payment to stay in the league and be one of the linchpins."



"Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez set a 5 p.m. MT Monday deadline for schools to sign a deal as the Pac-12 raced to poach more members. That deadline passed without a signing from UNLV."

"The pool of candidates is shrinking for the Pac-12 and the Mountain West. UNLV’s situation in Nevada is an interesting one. The Nevada System of Higher Education and its board of regents governs both schools and must approve decisions related to conference affiliation. The current governor of the state, Joe Lombardo, is a graduate of UNLV. The president of University of Nevada-Reno, Brian Sandoval, is a two-term governor of the state who holds respect and power among the regents.

As for the Mountain West, the league must secure membership before agreeing to terms with expansion targets, which range from Conference-USA’s UTEP to FCS Tarleton State."
 
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OP
Pablo

Pablo

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"Gonzaga​

This would be the biggest addition to the current realignment cycle. Gonzaga would immediately become the face of the new-look conference because of the historical success the program has sustained under Mark Few. Adding the Bulldogs to the Pac-12 would reaffirm a new conference rivalry with San Diego State - a program that has had similar success over the last decade in hoops.

Adding Gonzaga to the conference should be a no-brainer for Pac-12 commissioner Theresa Gould. The only hurdle with this move is that Gonzaga - like GCU and Saint Mary's - doesn't have a football program. Could Gonzaga secure a full revenue share without a football program? That's a multi-million dollar question.
-- Cameron Salerno




Saint Mary's​

Adding a proven winner like Randy Bennett's Gaels would certainly boost the rebuilt Pac-12's claim to be considered a true Power 5 league again. Saint Mary's basketball is awesome, but you don't need me to tell you that. History sums it up well.

The Gaels have had a NCAA Tournament-caliber club in six of the past eight seasons. The fact that Saint Mary's vs. Gonzaga is even a debate is a testament to Bennett's program-building chops. But Aidan Mahaney's tough-luck decision to hit the portal for UConn was a brutal reminder that Saint Mary's is still not at the level of the big boys in college basketball. Could a Pac-12 move help that? -- Isaac Trotter



UNLV​

Las Vegas is the No. 40 media market in the country, per the DMA Market Rankings. That's one asset UNLV can bring to the new-look Pac-12. It also helps that Sin City has hosted the Pac-12 title game in basketball and football in recent years.

As a basketball program, The Rebels would compete in this version of the Pac-12, and jumping conferences could be the perfect storm to elevate the program to new heights. Nevada and UNLV — the two flagship schools in the state — belong in the same conference together. It makes sense for the Pac-12 to bring both of them over from the Mountain West to sustain that in-state conference rivalry. -- Salerno



Nevada​

Mark Fox won at Nevada. Eric Musselman won at Nevada. And now Steve Alford is winning at Nevada. Five NCAA Tournament appearances in the past eight seasons is no slouch, and Nevada is primed for a massive season in 2024-25. The Wolfpack could certainly be the best team in the Mountain West and should have a case for a third-straight, at-large bid.

This is a good college basketball program that might only be getting better. Keeping Nevada (and New Mexico and UNLV) in the mix could give the new-look Pac-12 a fierce basketball league with vicious rivalries galore. All the things that made the Mountain West so thrilling every night could be mostly replicated in the Pac-12. -- Trotter

Grand Canyon


GCU is the wild card of this bunch. GCU brings in the No. 11 Phoenix media market. Similar to Saint Mary's and Gonzaga, the one hurdle GCU could face is it doesn't have a football program, and the move would be basketball-centric.

The Antelopes have reached the NCAA Tournament in three of the last four years and are on an upward trajectory under coach Bryce Drew. Transitioning from the WAC to the Pac-12 would be a steep level up but the risk would be worth the reward. -- Salerno



New Mexico​

Playing meaningful basketball is important to New Mexico, and that isn't changing anytime soon. The Lobos have a phenomenal fan base with excellent attendance and one of the best home-court advantages in the country. It ain't easy to win at The Pit. Even without elite resources (again, a fancy word for cash), New Mexico has staying power because it has a proof of concept. Richard Pitino has found something with an up-tempo, heat-'em-up style that appeals to guards.


New Mexico dazzling point guard Donovan Dent is shaping up to be one of the top hoopers in the country this season, and that should give Pitino even more ammunition on the recruiting trail. Pitino has certainly increased the talent level that's walking through New Mexico's doors. Pitino has ushered in three of New Mexico's 10 best recruits of the internet era while stacking intriguing talent out of the portal. Point blank: New Mexico would make Pac-12 basketball even more vicious. -- Trotter"
 
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OP
Pablo

Pablo

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"The Mountain West has received signed commitments from its seven remaining member schools to stay in the conference, with all of them agreeing to execute grant of media rights from 2026 to 2032."

"It also announced plans for how it will distribute money it received in exit fees from the five schools leaving for the Pac-12. Those schools -- Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State and San Diego State -- are on the hook for roughly $18 million each, per the conference bylaws, but negotiations could lead to decreased totals.

Once it is determined what the total pot is, the distribution breakdown will be 24.5% for Air Force and UNLV, 11.5% for New Mexico, Nevada, San José State and Wyoming, and 5% for Hawai'i.


In its own statement, UNLV said it expects a lump-sum payment from the Mountain West of between $10-14 million in 2025, with additional payments between $1.5-1.8 million over a six-year period starting in July 2026."
 
OP
Pablo

Pablo

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"Per Action Network's Brett McMurphy, the Mountain West Conference notified the MAC of its interest in Northern Illinois and Toledo as football-only members in 2026.

Along with NIU and Toledo, the Mountain West is eyeing Texas State out of the Sun Belt, per ESPN's Pete Thamel. The Bobcats would be an all-sports addition, unlike Toledo and NIU."
 
OP
Pablo

Pablo

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"A decision is expected in the upcoming days as talks continue. The Pac-12 has also expressed interest, but that has yet to yield an offer, sources said.

Texas State is in the Sun Belt, and the exit fee for a league change is expected to be $5 million."
 

Walter

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All G6 conferences need to shift teams to form regional groupings. There really is very little to be gained by continuing with high travel costs. They get one bid to the CFPs. Regional games would put butts in the seats.

Who knows, GMTM and vcu might even be interested in a Southern mid-Atlantic public university conference.
 

GMUgemini

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All G6 conferences need to shift teams to form regional groupings. There really is very little to be gained by continuing with high travel costs. They get one bid to the CFPs. Regional games would put butts in the seats.

Who knows, GMTM and vcu might even be interested in a Southern mid-Atlantic public university conference.

Well there are 5 autobids to the CFP, one champion each from the top 5 rated conferences. There is now a battle between the reconstituted PAC, MWC, and AAC for who that fifth conference is going to be, hence the insane realignment happening right now.

As for basketball, other than the 3 western flank schools of Dayton, SLU, and Loyola, I like our footprint. The fact that most our schools are private don’t bother me too much.
 

Walter

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Well there are 5 autobids to the CFP, one champion each from the top 5 rated conferences. There is now a battle between the reconstituted PAC, MWC, and AAC for who that fifth conference is going to be, hence the insane realignment happening right now.

As for basketball, other than the 3 western flank schools of Dayton, SLU, and Loyola, I like our footprint. The fact that most our schools are private don’t bother me too much.
I may not be up to date on the CFP, but I can't imagine that the P4 will allow one of the three to keep the P5 designation and a G5 autobid.
 
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