Game 23: #24 Ranked - University of Dayton, Saturday, Feb 6th, 6 PM, MASN

JimP

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Stranger things have happened -- Dayton lost to La Salle...

I watched some of Lasalle @ Dayton recently. The announcers said that Archie Miller told them the loss was due to Dayton not pressuring the ball enough and not aggressively getting into the passing lanes. Getting ahead of myself, but this concerns me about the Dayton game since Mason's D is so conservative. I think we've seen some willingness on Paulsen's part to be flexible with the game plan recently though.

A win against Dayton would be huge, but I'd be satisfied with a strong effort in a loss. Based on the last couple of games, I think we'll get that.
 

gmujim92

Hall of Famer
GIVING DAY 2023
Haven't heard anything about Marquise; if he doesn't play, it's going to be tough because Dayton will stick Kyle Davis on Otis all day and that's not a good thing for us. Davis is probably the best on-ball defender in the A-10.

Regardless, the guys have to stay aggressive and continue driving the ball instead of settling for contested jumpers.

Shevon's continued improvement passing out of the double-team is also critical to producing open looks.

Bottom line: Get the ball into the paint, compress the defense and everything else is so much easier.
 

MasonFanatic

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GIVING DAY 2023
As far as I've been able to find, these are the only ranked opponents to visit the Patriot Center / EagleBank Arena. Mason is 0-6 in these games but most of them have been close.

1985-86: Maryland, Georgetown, Navy
2013-14: Saint Louis, UMass
2014-15: vcu
 

psyclone

Hall of Famer
RPIforecast: Dayton is a 10.4 favorite
VegasInsider: Dayton is a 7.5 pt favorite, up from 7 pts

I think the Vegas line reflects our most recent performances more than the computer-based spreads.
 

psyclone

Hall of Famer
To give us all a sense of what we're up against, ESPN's Bubble Watch has Dayton the A10's only "Lock" for the NCAAs. And KenPom ranks their defense in the top 20.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Atlantic 10 ConferenceTeams that should be in: Dayton
Work left to do: vcu, Saint Joseph's, St Bonaventure, George Washington

A massive win for St. Bonaventure gets them on the page, but for how long? Dayton's off week keeps the Flyers in the same (extremely impressive) position as Tuesday. And remember how we said not to bury Davidson? On Wednesday night, as alumni Stephen Curry was (in President Obama's amazing words) clowning the Washington Wizards with 51 points, Bob McKillop's team was losing 79-69 at George Washington, falling to 12-8 on the season. Perhaps our warning against premature burial was itself premature.

Dayton [18-3 (8-1), RPI: 11, SOS: 38] Perhaps, if you are not a regular devotee of Atlantic 10 basketball generally, or the Flyers specifically, you see this unranked team's 18 wins and three losses and find yourself mildly blown away. Fair enough. Yet Dayton's resume contains much more impressive numbers. Its top-15 RPI. Its top-50 overall strength of schedule, despite its Atlantic 10 affiliation. Its No. 4-ranked nonconference strength of schedule. Its 10-2 record against the RPI top-100. Better yet? When the Flyers beat Iowa back on Nov. 26, no one really batted an eye, and it wasn't just the turkey coma: Dayton was pretty good, Iowa was pretty good, neither team was ranked. Ho-hum. Now the Hawkeyes are a top-five beast with road sweeps of Michigan State and Purdue, and the Flyers measure their resume's improvement in Jarrod Uthoff buckets. Flyers head coach Archie Miller has this thing rolling.

vcu [17-5 (9-0), RPI: 29, SOS: 82] La Salle is the A-10's worst team. In a league that Saint Louis, George Mason, and Massachusetts (this season) call home, that's saying something. There isn't much to say, then, about vcu's 88-70 win at La Salle on Wednesday, except these two things: (1) For a resume without a single noteworthy nonconference win (maybe Middle Tennessee? Buffalo), avoiding losses to the dregs of the A-10 is practically vcu's top February priority. (2) You could make an argument that though Dayton has (by far) the A-10's best resume, on the court, vcu's per-possession performance is a substantive argument that the Rams might be the A-10's best team.

Saint Joseph's [18-4 (7-2), RPI: 37, SOS: 110] The good news for Saint Joe's? St. Bonaventure is pretty good. Their RPI is in the top 50. Their offense is the A-10's second-most efficient to date. It's totally possible they'll get in the tournament. All of which is to say: The Hawks' home loss on Wednesday night wasn't a total disaster. It wasn't great, either. Losing on your home floor is never great. That's especially if you, like Saint Joe's, are a clear bubble team with no top-25 or top-50 wins and just a 3-4 record against the top 100.

St Bonaventure [14-6 (6-3), RPI: 45, SOS: 71] The Bonnies are a long-shot addition after Wednesday's win at Saint Joe's. How long they stay is up to them. The pros? Decent RPI, decent schedule, no sub-100 losses. The cons? St. Bonaventure is just 3-6 against the top 100. Saint Joe's was its first win better than a road victory at Buffalo. Marcus Posley is leading one of the A-10's best offensive teams in conference play, but it may take something drastic -- like a win at Dayton on Feb. 20 -- to get off the fringe.

George Washington [17-5 (6-3), RPI: 49, SOS: 124] That long-ago Nov. 16 home win over Virginia is basically George Washington's personal Giving Tree, and the Colonials' resume seems likely to wring every last bit of value from its branches. The win over Davidson doesn't change much, and the bad losses (at DePaul, at Saint Louis, Richmond) are even more of a profile setback than a 200-ish nonconference strength of schedule. But when you beat Virginia (and have a 2-1 mark against the top-50 teams you've played thus far) and Seton Hall, you've got a chance.
 

psyclone

Hall of Famer
RPIforecast: Dayton is a 10.4 favorite
VegasInsider: Dayton is a 7.5 pt favorite, up from 7 pts

I think the Vegas line reflects our most recent performances more than the computer-based spreads.

VegasInsider line has moved up---Dayton is now favored by 9.5.
 

Pikapppatri8

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Daughters game started late - will go directly into game


Broads, Buicks, and Buckley
 

Pikapppatri8

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Game is not as bad as I thought or the score would dictate. Dayton's Pierre is sick


Broads, Buicks, and Buckley
 
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