Game 14: GMU (8-5 / 0-0) vs Richmond (7-6 / 0-0) on Saturday, December 31, at 2:00 PM.

[Mason2005]

I’m not sure this is showing what you think it is. DP scheduled 3 top 100 teams that year including 19 Baylor in a better tourney down in the panhandle of Florida which I attended. This is probably the worst example of a DP schedule to prove your point. End of the year kenpom for these low major teams that are way too high should make it more Paulsen esque as well.

You just gave props to DP, you should take back everything bad you've said about him.

 

[sleeperpick]

You just gave props to DP, you should take back everything bad you've said about him.

Saying CKE’s schedule is just as bad as DPs scheduling while complaining on how crappy this scheduling all year was is certainly not a compliment to DP.

 

[PDGL Hoops]

A win would be nice - thank you.

 

[Petey Buckets]

I’ll take a stab, and someone who understands NET and Kenpom more can correct me, but even though our scheduling did not improve and you are right that this was a Paulsen-esque schedule (I’ll argue anyone that disagrees with this, our average NET for opponents was trash this season), we’ve won most of the games we needed to very efficiently which the metrics-based rankings rewards, compared to Paulsen days where we’d grind these same teams to a 5-6 point win. Blowing out bad teams is better than barely beating them when it comes to NET/Kenpom which when you say it out loud isn’t all that surprising. It helped we had a higher starting Kenpom position that most years under Paulsen from our performance last season and our returning scoring.

To expand on this a little bit, one of the things that really confuses people about Kenpom and similar systems is that winning or losing does not matter. It's looking at efficiency margins (how much you are winning or losing by) and adjusting them for quality of opponent. It then creates baseline ratings where teams can be compared to each other, and puts out an expected score for games, which allows these ratings to be continually refined. Kenpom expected us to beat Coppin State by 13, but we got a big bump since we beat them by 38. It expected us to lose to ODU by 2, but we actually moved up a spot or two since we only lost by 1. We took big drops in the three Bahamas games since we were expected to win all three by 2-3 possessions but lost comfortably in all of them.

Of course teams that win more will tend to be higher, but once you understand that the rest of it falls into place. Fordham is still in the 170s on kenpom despite being 12-1, because they have mostly beaten the worst teams in D1, sometimes by small margins. If Mason were to play Kansas tomorrow and lose by 1, we'd probably get a big bump! Same as if we played IUPUI or someone terrible and won by one possession, we'd take a big drop. The schedule has been smack in the middle of D1 average, but the wins are mostly by solid margins and the losses aren't as catastrophic as they felt at the time. Note that this is relative to the question of how is this different than Paulsen - the losses were catastrophic for any chances of an at-large, and 108 on kenpom isn't exactly good.

 

[gmujim92]

Mason is up to 105 in the NET, that’s third in the
A-10 behind Dayton and SLU

 

[ephoops]

I did a quick calculation of Out of Conference Strength of Schedule (OOC-SOS) for KE’s first two seasons compared to DP’s tenure as HC. The average KenPom rating for OOC opponents for the various seasons is as follows (Mason’s final KenPom rating is in parentheses):

KE:
2022-23: 163 (108 as of 12/26/22)
2021-22: 177 (113)

DP:
2019-20: 206 (174)
2018-19: 180 (156)
2017-18: 184 (220)
2016-17: 195 (123)
2015-16: 159 (198)

Another KenPom metric for OOC-SOS is Non-Conference Strength of Schedule Adjusted Efficiency Margin (“NCSOS-Adj. EM”). The metric ranks the strength of schedule for all D-1 teams.

KE:
2022-23: 217 out of 363 teams
2021-22: 194

DP:
2019-20: 341
2018-19: 258
2017-18: 279
2016-17: 259
2015-16: 158

This year’s NCSOS-Adj. EM of 217 shows the relative weakness of the OCC opponents this season. My guess is that the KenPom ranking for this year’s OOC opponents will go down over the course of the season and the final numbers will be lower for the 2022-23 season.

 

[tblack33]

I did a quick calculation of Out of Conference Strength of Schedule (OOC-SOS) for KE’s first two seasons compared to DP’s tenure as HC. The average KenPom rating for OOC opponents for the various seasons is as follows (Mason’s final KenPom rating is in parentheses):

KE:
2022-23: 163 (108 as of 12/26/22)
2021-22: 177 (113)

DP:
2019-20: 206 (174)
2018-19: 180 (156)
2017-18: 184 (220)
2016-17: 195 (123)
2015-16: 159 (198)

Another KenPom metric for OOC-SOS is Non-Conference Strength of Schedule Adjusted Efficiency Margin (“NCSOS-Adj. EM”). The metric ranks the strength of schedule for all D-1 teams.

KE:
2022-23: 217 out of 363 teams
2021-22: 194

DP:
2019-20: 341
2018-19: 258
2017-18: 279
2016-17: 259
2015-16: 158

This year’s NCSOS-Adj. EM of 217 shows the relative weakness of the OCC opponents this season. My guess is that the KenPom ranking for this year’s OOC opponents will go down over the course of the season and the final numbers will be lower for the 2022-23 season.

The fact is for OOC SOS you can’t really get an exact to compare with till the seasons over, because the first time longwood drops a game in the SOCON they’ll drop like 50 spots. We should be aiming for a top 150 SOS (top 50%) on years we are pushing for the tournament. All things considered I’m super happy where we are going into conference play, but I still want to see us schedule better next season. I trust Kim will make it happen.

 

[GMU79]

To expand on this a little bit, one of the things that really confuses people about Kenpom and similar systems is that winning or losing does not matter. It's looking at efficiency margins (how much you are winning or losing by) and adjusting them for quality of opponent. It then creates baseline ratings where teams can be compared to each other, and puts out an expected score for games, which allows these ratings to be continually refined. Kenpom expected us to beat Coppin State by 13, but we got a big bump since we beat them by 38. It expected us to lose to ODU by 2, but we actually moved up a spot or two since we only lost by 1. We took big drops in the three Bahamas games since we were expected to win all three by 2-3 possessions but lost comfortably in all of them.

Of course teams that win more will tend to be higher, but once you understand that the rest of it falls into place. Fordham is still in the 170s on kenpom despite being 12-1, because they have mostly beaten the worst teams in D1, sometimes by small margins. If Mason were to play Kansas tomorrow and lose by 1, we'd probably get a big bump! Same as if we played IUPUI or someone terrible and won by one possession, we'd take a big drop. The schedule has been smack in the middle of D1 average, but the wins are mostly by solid margins and the losses aren't as catastrophic as they felt at the time. Note that this is relative to the question of how is this different than Paulsen - the losses were catastrophic for any chances of an at-large, and 108 on kenpom isn't exactly good.

Thanks, that is super helpful!

 

[GSII]

Nerds

 

[mkaufman1]

The fact is for OOC SOS you can’t really get an exact to compare with till the seasons over, because the first time longwood drops a game in the SOCON they’ll drop like 50 spots. We should be aiming for a top 150 SOS (top 50%) on years we are pushing for the tournament. All things considered I’m super happy where we are going into conference play, but I still want to see us schedule better next season. I trust Kim will make it happen.

Yeah I think we all can agree on this at this juncture. Hopefully a buy game can be Switched for a home and home with a top 100 program, and maybe 2 top 100 neutral games with an MTE they can do going forward.

it’s crucial that Mason does well in conference play to show value to get better games going forward.

 

[MasonFanatic]

We need to get into a better MTE, so our whole SoS doesn't hinge on winning the first game, but it's also hard to get into better MTEs without proven success, so it's definitely a chicken and the egg type of problem.

The best antidote that we can control would be to go have a monster A10 conference season.

 

[phoenix-arizona]

All these numbers flying around.

 

[Yossarian]

The fact is for OOC SOS you can’t really get an exact to compare with till the seasons over, because the first time longwood drops a game in the SOCON they’ll drop like 50 spots. We should be aiming for a top 150 SOS (top 50%) on years we are pushing for the tournament. All things considered I’m super happy where we are going into conference play, but I still want to see us schedule better next season. I trust Kim will make it happen.

Not sure what a SOCON or Kenpom or OOC SOS-Pom is, but I have a feeling that 60% of the time you’re right all of the time.

 

[tblack33]

Feels like a big game today to open A10 play, I feel like a lot of these games are gonna feel like big games, the difference in making the top 4 or not will probably come down to a win or two. Hopefully folks show up today, goldroom beers are always cold.

 

[mkaufman1]

Gotta defend the home court and start A10 play off on a good note. League play is always tough, but at the very least we have to take all of the games at home. Very important to take a home game against Richmond.

 

[Patriotsince81]

Feels like a big game today to open A10 play, I feel like a lot of these games are gonna feel like big games, the difference in making the top 4 or not will probably come down to a win or two. Hopefully folks show up today, goldroom beers are always cold.

Win at home, go .500 on the road and you're top 4 99 out of 100 times. It starts today!

 

[Pikapppatri8]

Win at home, go .500 on the road and you're top 4 99 out of 100 times. It starts today!

Just poured a drink to that post sir.

 

[MasonFanatic]

It feels like this team takes more pride in defending home court than some of the Hewitt or Paulsen teams. Richmond has had a weird season, who knows which version of them will show up. I'm feeling a win today, lots of trey balls dropping.

 

[Yossarian]

You said balls dropping.

 

[Yossarian]

That monster guarding Oduro looks like a Bosnian war criminal. Can we scrub the Richmond roster against known violators of the Geneva convention?