I'm thinking rpi forecast is slow to recognize the Thompson/Jackson effect. I'd like to think GMU can stay well within 20 @ Oklahoma. Not favored in the first four conference games? Home against Lasalle & UMass and on the road against Richmond and SBU (essentially a neutral site game)? Doubt I'm the only person who posts here that'd be disappointed in something less than a 2-2 conference start.
I think you're right--the early games are still dragging us down. Assuming that we've genuinely turned a corner (remember, we have lots of new guys who are particularly subject to ups & downs), our rpiforecast/Sagarin numbers may be underestimating us.
We are only 2.4 underdogs at home against LaSalle and 0.4 underdogs at home against UMass. I like our chances in those games. My sense is that the VegasInsider numbers give a better acknowledgement of recent performance.
Here's the rpi website: http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/George Mason.html