Freshman Focus with Coach Paulsen

[gmujim92]

Not if you want them to shoot in a position less system. You're going to have to sacrifice weight moreso than height.

Although, I'm not sure how light Oduro is comparatively. I would guess he is average weight for the 5's in the A-10. He's got to be heavier than Osun.

My complaint with position less ball is that you create jack-of-all-trades/masters-of-none. So you're seeing guys get the ball in different spots where they may not be as comfortable and your not designing an offense to get a specific look in a specific spot to optimize probability of success.

Might explain that graphic that was shared last season showing how many shots are coming from midrange for us. We don't have specialized post players and we don't have specialized shooters.

This is @Petey Buckets territory, but modern analytics say the most efficient offenses are ones that take the vast majority of their shots from 3 or at the rim.

I think our staff has done a good job of recruiting guys who can drive to score, and those guys have been pretty effective considering how little we legitimately threaten our opponents with the 3, but we do a terrible job of penetrating to create open 3-point shots.

I’m a fan of motion offense because it does allow for freedom and creativity and set-reliant offenses are actually easier to defend, but we need to get better at moving the ball with the pass instead of forcing guys to dribble when that’s not their strength.

 

[tblack33]

This is @Petey Buckets territory, but modern analytics say the most efficient offenses are ones that take the vast majority of their shots from 3 or at the rim.

I think our staff has done a good job of recruiting guys who can drive to score, and those guys have been pretty effective considering how little we legitimately threaten our opponents with the 3, but we do a terrible job of penetrating to create open 3-point shots.

I’m a fan of motion offense because it does allow for freedom and creativity and set-reliant offenses are actually easier to defend, but we need to get better at moving the ball with the pass instead of forcing guys to dribble when that’s not their strength.

Beat me to it, I was just about to talk about how we aren't going to win many A10 games if we are looking for midrange shots. It has been proven time and time again to statistically be the worst shot in basketball. I think we've taken more midrange shots the last two years because we don't have enough consistent 3 pt shooting so when teams wisely went zone against us we couldn't shoot over it, so we had to try to pass into it which results in a lot of shots from the elbows and midrange baseline.

I'd love to see us have some sort of 4 out 1 in set where starts out Javon lined up on the left corner outside, Jordan Miller sets up on the left side perimeter and every single time down they start with Miller screening down for Javon. That at least initiates some weak side motion (which was so sorely missing from our offense all last season), and puts 2 of our best 3 scorers in their best positions to make something happen. Miller is actually a great corner shooter, I feel like most of his made 3s were from the weakside corner. Javon isn't a terrible catch and shoot guy off the screen, and if it's not there he can either get to the rim or drive and kick. Bottom line, running a motion offense requires, surprisingly, motion, which is something we couldn't seem to make happen most A10 games last season. If I'm Dave and someone is standing still on offense for more than 4 seconds and isn't either cutting, flashing the post, screening, or coming off a screen they can grab some pine until they figure it out.

 

[mkaufman1]

@gmujim92 @sleeperpick I will admit when I am (sort of) wrong. Before seeing Sleeper's post I would've have guessed somewhere around middle to slightly below middle of the pack in terms of height (also I meant undersized relative to the way we play but I didn't make that clear). But what Pablo is saying is also part of what I was getting at. Going by what is an obviously subjective eye test, how many times have you looked at the court and it looks like men against boys? We've got some lean players. I think we've overperformed for a few years in terms of masking that considering Marquise and then Kier became elite rebounders for their size, but last year without a 6'3 or 6'4 guy radically overperforming his height on the boards we really struggled and that translated in our overall record.

And for what it's worth I actually like Oduro quite a bit, although I am concerned his skillset doesn't really fix any of our issues (i.e. teams aren't going to double him even if he is drilling shots from the elbow on them.) Can he get to the point where we trust him to handle a true 5 on his own defensively? I think with a little added muscle and aggression, yes. But I also thought that about Calixte and he seemed to plateau after his freshman year. So who knows.

I get what you are saying in the "men versus boys" even though mason has height. I did notice this past year that the guys looked much more muscular and mature than in years past. The difference in what I saw in Brooklyn this past year and last year was much different. And the guys looked much bigger than Fordham when I saw them for what its worth.

I think Oduro will develop nicely but like everyone has said he needs the muscle and aggression. He is "too nice" in the post. I enjoy his game though. He has to learn to go up strong and push guys around. Someone important who was sitting near me during the St Joes game in Brooklyn even was talking to himself saying he needed to go up strong..

 

[GMUgemini]

I read a very convincing article that argued that the mid-range shot is actually the most important shot in basketball and that when you hear the maxim (the mid-range shot is the least efficient shot in basketball) they are really talking about shots just inside the arc.

But there is also a difference between Jordan Miller or Justin Kier taking a set mid-range shot 8-16 feet from the basket and Javon and Hartwell taking a desperation floater because they got stopped trying to get to the rim and have no outlet pass.

I’ll see if I can find the article later.

 

[CHRISTOPHER JAMES JOLLAY]

I have met idiots on the net lately that have ragged on kids/players practicing the mid-range shot, like at all.

They are stupid and have no idea of how basketball actually works.

Yes, I do completely understand the efficiency metrics.

 

[Quentin Daniels]

Player Min Pts Reb FG%
AJ Wilson 11.6 3.7 2.9 48%
Erik Copes 15 3.3 3.7 45%
Josh Oduro 16.9 4.9 3.9 48%
Greg Calixte 18.8 4.9 4.3 61%
Mark Gujancic 19.8 5.3 3.7 39%
Jalen Jenkins 22.8 7.2 6 49%
Goanar Mar 31.9 10.9 4.4 43%


Freshman stats from some of our recent forwards.

 

[sleeperpick]

I have met idiots on the net lately that have ragged on kids/players practicing the mid-range shot, like at all.

They are stupid and have no idea of how basketball actually works.

Yes, I do completely understand the efficiency metrics.

mid range is effective if you aren't taking rushed mid range from the elbow with 2 secs on the shot clock after a horrible offensive possession which seemed to be our MO last year a lot of the time

 

[GSII]

Steve forbes ran a 5 out postionless offense at etsu last season. They went 30-4. He plans to do the same at Wake. Question is will it work with superior defenses in the ACC.

 

[By George.]

Steve forbes ran a 5 out postionless offense at etsu last season. They went 30-4. He plans to do the same at Wake. Question is will it work with superior defenses in the ACC.

Dayton did the same, but you have to have ballers at every position. I also question Paulsen’s desire to have 2 ball handlers and I asked him about it in the interview. He made a strong case but I still wonder if it limits the amount of shooters you can get on the court.

 

[gmutom]

I also question Paulsen’s desire to have 2 ball handlers and I asked him about it in the interview. He made a strong case but I still wonder if it limits the the amount of shooters you can get on the court.

I still maintain that Hartwell is the best shooter on the team, so I have no problem pairing him with Xavier or Polite for brief spurts. Granted, that makes us smaller in the backcourt, but it would also help us against pressing teams like vcu.

 

[Quentin Daniels]

Dayton did the same, but you have to have ballers at every position. I also question Paulsen’s desire to have 2 ball handlers and I asked him about it in the interview. He made a strong case but I still wonder if it limits the amount of shooters you can get on the court.

I'm not sure I follow. Who is the extra ball handler on the court you'd replace and who is the shooter you'd put in?

If Kier had been healthy I could see a heavier rotation and/or trio of him along w/Green & Miller at the expense of Hartwell and/or XJ. But those four all averaged between 29-32 minutes already.

 

[By George.]

I'm not sure I follow. Who is the extra ball handler on the court you'd replace and who is the shooter you'd put in?

If Kier had been healthy I could see a heavier rotation and/or trio of him along w/Green & Miller at the expense of Hartwell and/or XJ. But those four all averaged between 29-32 minutes already.

Sorry for the confusion, I was speaking more to DP’s philosophy because in the interview we discussed how he prefers to have multiple ball handlers on the court together as opposed to 1 PG who runs the show. Last year, clearly his hands were tied at multiples points of the season.

 

[GSII]

It's concerning that XJ had an injury at years end. Knee tendenitis.

 

[FreeGunston12]

It's concerning that XJ had an injury at years end. Knee tendenitis.

Patellar tendinitis is not a big deal. An overuse injury that heals with rest, which I'm sure he's gotten plenty of.

 

[GSII]

Patellar tendinitis is not a big deal. An overuse injury that heals with rest, which I'm sure he's
gotten plenty of.

Was it patellar? Is that only area of knee it hits? Didn't know you were an orthopedic surgeon. Will be asking you on future ailments.

The point was, we had yet again, another freshman hurt at the end of the year due to overloading minutes due to need, which is a result of a reoccurring issue of roster mismanagement.

 

[GMUgemini]

Was it patellar? Is that only area of knee it hits? Didn't know you were an orthopedic surgeon. Will be asking you on future ailments.

The point was, we had yet again, another freshman hurt at the end of the year due to overloading minutes due to need, which is a result of a reoccurring issue of roster mismanagement.

If I had to guess, most teams deal with things like tendinitis and other minor injuries and we just don't know it because we don't follow them closely enough (if you listened to Hey10's interview with Gianinni, he talked about seniors getting worn down by the end of their careers as an division 1-wide problem and theorized it might have something to do with the added allowable hours of practice over the summer). Not everything has to be a Paulsen problem.

 

[FreeGunston12]

Was it patellar? Is that only area of knee it hits? Didn't know you were an orthopedic surgeon. Will be asking you on future ailments.

The point was, we had yet again, another freshman hurt at the end of the year due to overloading minutes due to need, which is a result of a reoccurring issue of roster mismanagement.

I'd really rather not get into measuring my credentials regarding sports injuries against yours. Unless you'd like to make a wager? Go ahead and double-down on your assumption that I don't know what I'm talking about.

Even though I see some problems with Paulsen roster management, I don't think XJ having "knee" tendinitis is a strike against him. I'm sure XJ was pushed into playing more minutes than designed due to Kier, Boyd, Hartwell, and even Daddy missing the time that they did. The open scholarship was a problem for me - but prior to the season I would have advocated for that scholarship to go to a big man. So that probably wouldn't have helped with XJ's minutes anyway.

Next year, I don't think we'll be concerned about needing another point guard on the roster.

Now I have to say, shame on you for making me defend DP. Its not something I want to do, but your criticism on this point is invalid.

 

[GSII]

I'd really rather not get into measuring my credentials regarding sports injuries against yours. Unless you'd like to make a wager? Go ahead and double-down on your assumption that I don't know what I'm talking about.

Even though I see some problems with Paulsen roster management, I don't think XJ having "knee" tendinitis is a strike against him. I'm sure XJ was pushed into playing more minutes than designed due to Kier, Boyd, Hartwell, and even Daddy missing the time that they did. The open scholarship was a problem for me - but prior to the season I would have advocated for that scholarship to go to a big man. So that probably wouldn't have helped with XJ's minutes anyway.

Next year, I don't think we'll be concerned about needing another point guard on the roster.

Now I have to say, shame on you for making me defend DP. Its not something I want to do, but your criticism on this point is invalid.

I wasnt being sarcastic. The future ailments were for me. Early 40's is getting hard getting used to.

So you are saying XJ wouldnt have suffered tendonitis if he didnt have to play so much bc four of our guys were............hold on....wait......what's the word.....oh yea, injured. Ok got it. That was sarcastic, btw. Again, the point is simply we have to many damn injuries. Consistently more than anybody it seems.

 

[GMUgemini]

I wasnt being sarcastic. The future ailments were for me. Early 40's is getting hard getting used to.

So you are saying XJ wouldnt have suffered tendonitis if he didnt have to play so much bc four of our guys were............hold on....wait......what's the word.....oh yea, injured. Ok got it. That was sarcastic, btw. Again, the point is simply we have to many damn injuries. Consistently more than anybody it seems.

Technically, really only the last two years were bad, and they particularly stick out because they were supposed to be the culmination of the years before where we finally were supposed to have a competitive team -- and then you have Otis (who played through his injuries), Reuter, Grayer, Boyd, Mar in 2019 and then Dady, Boyd, Kier, Hartwell in 2020. As well as various injuries to Calixte (knee sprain/ankle sprain?), and AJ (concussion).

And some of these were just bad luck (Boyd and Dady's wrist injuries probably weren't overuse injuries), Hartwell getting sick isn't an overuse injury. Mar and Grayer breaking their foot in games probably isn't an overuse injury either. So, you're left with Reuter (who apparently had a congenital issue, which is a major role of the dice on Paulsen's part), and Kier (stress fractures are overuse injuries). Otis getting worn down his senior year as well, but apparently that's becoming more of a thing now.

 

[FreeGunston12]

Technically, really only the last two years were bad, and they particularly stick out because they were supposed to be the culmination of the years before where we finally were supposed to have a competitive team -- and then you have Otis (who played through his injuries), Reuter, Grayer, Boyd, Mar in 2019 and then Dady, Boyd, Kier, Hartwell in 2020. As well as various injuries to Calixte (knee sprain/ankle sprain?), and AJ (concussion).

And some of these were just bad luck (Boyd and Dady's wrist injuries probably weren't overuse injuries), Hartwell getting sick isn't an overuse injury. Mar and Grayer breaking their foot in games probably isn't an overuse injury either. So, you're left with Reuter (who apparently had a congenital issue, which is a major role of the dice on Paulsen's part), and Kier (stress fractures are overuse injuries). Otis getting worn down his senior year as well, but apparently that's becoming more of a thing now.

You also forgot AJ's broken nose, which he mostly played through. Nevertheless, that came at a really bad time in his development.