2026 College Basketball Projections

[jessej]

I know its early, and these are likely way off, but it's this or we talk about the upcoming George Mason D1 Football Program

2025-26 Projections - - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

www.barttorvik.com

Note our low % of returning minutes

 

[jruby]

Don't get the GW love at all, with latest signing Mason's class should be ranked higher and with a better coach and staff I would definitely give Mason the edge. vcu is always going to be 1 until someone dethrones them at the top. Dayton or St Louis I could even see with their histories or money. GW i'm not getting it. Caputo showed a lot of weaknesses as a coach last year.

 

[GMU79]

Don't get the GW love at all, with latest signing Mason's class should be ranked higher and with a better coach and staff I would definitely give Mason the edge. vcu is always going to be 1 until someone dethrones them at the top. Dayton or St Louis I could even see with their histories or money. GW i'm not getting it. Caputo showed a lot of weaknesses as a coach last year.

You mean running around after the game yelling at people who weren't there wasn't a show of strength!!??

 

[jessej]

Don't get the GW love at all, with latest signing Mason's class should be ranked higher and with a better coach and staff I would definitely give Mason the edge. vcu is always going to be 1 until someone dethrones them at the top. Dayton or St Louis I could even see with their histories or money. GW i'm not getting it. Caputo showed a lot of weaknesses as a coach last year.

GWU
over 50% returning minutes
#4 in talent
maps into the 2nd highest offense
and a hopeful star returning from injury - Johnson
but at this point it is all a guess

 

[jruby]

GWU
over 50% returning minutes
#4 in talent
maps into the 2nd highest offense
and a hopeful star returning from injury - Johnson
but at this point it is all a guess

Yeah I don't buy much into that anymore. Every season you start over, every single season is a new one. I'm banking projections more off who's coming in transfer portal and coaches. Coaches in college matter, they matter a whole lot. I don't really care about returning guys it's overrated now.

At least the rankings make a little more sense based on what you said so I hear ya!

 

[GMUgemini]

It’s all guesswork. I can’t imagine being able to make an accurate prediction of how 11 new players will mesh together and how fast.

Even thinking about their production at their old stops. They’ll have new roles, new offense, new defense, new league. It’s impossible.

 

[phoenix-arizona]

Will make for some messy moments during the out of conference schedule--how fast can they jell as a team. That's the true projection.

 

[NewPatriot]

vcu is always going to be 1 until someone dethrones them at the top.

vcu's incoming class is alot of sizzle and short on substance.

The new staff is relying on alot of highly touted potential in the backcourt but very little actual experience at the college level.

That's a recipe for taking a step back.

Tony Skinn and his staff took a major step forward in Roster construction by acquiring experienced, proven, skilled, versatile, long, athletic, explosive scorers across the board. Every position has experienced a major upgrade from the previous season(including the post game).

Last year, only one player could post up on a consistent basis...now there are 3 or 4. Last year, there was maybe 2 players who could break down a defense whereas every transfer with exception of allenbach can get his own shot..

All the props to TS, Steve curran for putting this roster together in six weeks with a fraction of vcu's NIL budget.

 

[Old Man]

It’s all guesswork. I can’t imagine being able to make an accurate prediction of how 11 new players will mesh together and how fast.

Even thinking about their production at their old stops. They’ll have new roles, new offense, new defense, new league. It’s impossible.

I have a research idea for those who have these types of stats at the ready. In thinking of the statement above, i.e. how 11 new players will mesh together and how fast.

Build a chart of the new guys to answer the following questions:
At their previous school(s), how many years did they play/start?
How many new players (portal transfers) did they play with?
How many portal players were in their starting rotation?
How well did they perform with other portal players at their previous stops?

I guess what I'm wondering, is now that we're in this new basketball recruiting world, do we put too much stock in the length of time it takes for a team to jell? Have the kids played so much AAU, Kenner League, etc. and now have moved to a college system where players change teams with regularity, that they've become more adept at becoming a team faster than before?

Does any of this make sense to anyone but me?

 

[gmujim92]

I have a research idea for those who have these types of stats at the ready. In thinking of the statement above, i.e. how 11 new players will mesh together and how fast.

Build a chart of the new guys to answer the following questions:
At their previous school(s), how many years did they play/start?
How many new players (portal transfers) did they play with?
How many portal players were in their starting rotation?
How well did they perform with other portal players at their previous stops?

I guess what I'm wondering, is now that we're in this new basketball recruiting world, do we put too much stock in the length of time it takes for a team to jell? Have the kids played so much AAU, Kenner League, etc. and now have moved to a college system where players change teams with regularity, that they've become more adept at becoming a team faster than before?

Does any of this make sense to anyone but me?

I think the thing you can’t quantify is unselfishness. Guys are definitely more accustomed to switching teams and schools and playing with an ever-changing cast of characters, but chemistry depends on how many are willing to put the team first instead of just looking out for their own numbers.

Mason’s 24-25 team doesn’t come close to winning 27 games if the guys weren’t bought in fully to the idea of playing for each other. All of those close wins very easily could’ve been losses.

 

[GMUYoda]

This go here or another thread?

ACC considering reducing conference basketball schedule to help boost the league's NCAA Tournament profile

The ACC may move from 20 to 18 conference games next season to play more marquee nonconference matchups

www.cbssports.com

 

[tblack33]

vcu's incoming class is alot of sizzle and short on substance.

The new staff is relying on alot of highly touted potential in the backcourt but very little actual experience at the college level.

That's a recipe for taking a step back.

Tony Skinn and his staff took a major step forward in Roster construction by acquiring experienced, proven, skilled, versatile, long, athletic, explosive scorers across the board. Every position has experienced a major upgrade from the previous season(including the post game).

Last year, only one player could post up on a consistent basis...now there are 3 or 4. Last year, there was maybe 2 players who could break down a defense whereas every transfer with exception of allenbach can get his own shot..

All the props to TS, Steve curran for putting this roster together in six weeks with a fraction of vcu's NIL budget.

This is a pretty hot take that we’re getting better at every single position off the board when we had a first team all A10 center and multiple two year starting 5th year guys who transferred down from better programs leading our team that ended up tied for first. Hope you are right but folks might want to temper their expectations a bit with this roster.

 

[jessej]

This is a pretty hot take that we’re getting better at every single position off the board when we had a first team all A10 center and multiple two year starting 5th year guys who transferred down from better programs leading our team that ended up tied for first. Hope you are right but folks might want to temper their expectations a bit with this roster.

i have the same issues/questions. Last year's team featured transfers from P4 programs who moved "down". This year's roster will feature players from non-P4 programs who have moved up.

I suspect that a lot of that has to do with a NIL rush/influx prior to the House Settlement, but the effect is visible in this roster.

 

[mkaufman1]

This is a pretty hot take that we’re getting better at every single position off the board when we had a first team all A10 center and multiple two year starting 5th year guys who transferred down from better programs leading our team that ended up tied for first. Hope you are right but folks might want to temper their expectations a bit with this roster.

i have the same issues/questions. Last year's team featured transfers from P4 programs who moved "down". This year's roster will feature players from non-P4 programs who have moved up.

I suspect that a lot of that has to do with a NIL rush/influx prior to the House Settlement, but the effect is visible in this roster.

Totally get the concerns—bringing in guys from peer like programs such as Ball State, Murray State, Northeastern, and a banged-up player from UMD doesn't scream "sure thing." Troutman's status last year is still a bit of a mystery too.

But all of these guys played real minutes and produced at their previous schools. They weren’t bench guys—they scored and contributed. The big question is whether they’ll defend at a high enough level to compete at the top of the A-10. That’s still TBD.

That said, we had similar doubts before Tony’s first year—Newton hadn’t played much, Maddox missed time, and there were questions about KD running the point going into year 2. And look how that turned out.

We didn’t get a P4 drop-down, but we got productive players. In today’s college hoops world, talent can come from anywhere. I’m still confident we’ll be right in the mix for a top-5 finish.

 

[Verdad]

I feel like everyone is ignoring the fact that the runner up for NPOY was from a lower conference (and was Devon Coopers teammate).

There are plenty of players who transfer up and excel.

I don’t think it matters one iota whether we get guys from lower conferences or higher. Ones from higher conferences probably have an artificially inflated price tag.

 

[Old Man]

I feel like everyone is ignoring the fact that the runner up for NPOY was from a lower conference (and was Devon Coopers teammate).

There are plenty of players who transfer up and excel.

I don’t think it matters one iota whether we get guys from lower conferences or higher. Ones from higher conferences probably have an artificially inflated price tag.

Exactly! It doesn't matter where players come from.

Do you think The U fan base had the same concerns when Coach L brought in Jordan Miller from the lower conference A10? Probably. How did that work out for them? Or Louisville with Hancock?

The point is, there are many, many under recruited players who start at a lower level because no one saw them play, and they just want a chance.

There are thousands of reasons why players start lower, but the point is, CTS knows what he needs on his team, and I trust him to find that player, even from under a rock if necessary. I don't care about the pedigree. Does CTS think he can he play ball? That's all I need to know.

 

[gmujim92]

Agree completely with the last three posts and just wanted to add, our staff is very good at talent recognition and evaluation. They know what they’re looking for in the portal and have proven they know how to build a roster that works, whether that’s with guys transferring up or down.

They’ve earned our trust until proven otherwise.