Game 18: GMU (12-5 / 3-1) at Dayton (11-5/ 1-2) on Wednesday, January 15, at 7:00 PM.

[Patriotsince81]

Preseason accolades:
Dayton was picked to finish 2nd in A10 Preseason Polls and received 6 first place votes.
1st Team - Nate Santos
2nd Team - Posh Alexander
Defensive team - Posh Alexander & Enoch Cheeks

The game is on CBS Sports Network.

KenPom: Gives us a 27% chance of winning.
GMU - 81
Dayton - 55
NET:
Mason - 80
Dayton - 61

We are 6-10 (.375) against Dayton all-time.

Dayton is currently 11-5 on the season and 1-2 in A10 play. They are 10-0 at home, 0-2 on the road, and 1-3 at neutral sites.

Schedule: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule

Wins: Saint Francis (87-57), Northwestern (71-66), Ball St. (77-69), Capital (76-55), New Mexico St. (74-53), #2 UConn (85-67), Western Michigan (77-69), Lehigh (86-62), #14 Marquette (71-63), UNLV (66-65), La Salle (84-70)
Losses: #12 North Carolina (92-90), #5 Iowa St. (89-84), Cincinnati (66-59), GW (82-62), UMass (76-72)

Probable Starters:
6’7” Nate Santos - 14.5 ppg & 5.2 reb - Senior
6’3” Enoch Cheeks - 12.5 ppg & 7.1 reb - Senior
6’8” Zed Key - 11.9 ppg & 4.3 reb - Grad Student
6’0” Malachi Smith - 10.9 ppg & 5.6 assists - Junior (injured much of last season and had 3 surgeries on his ankles and his knee)
5’10” Javon Bennett - 9.2 ppg - Junior

Reserves averaging double figure minutes:
6’0” Posh Alexander - 6.6 ppg - Senior - 1 start
7’1” Amael L’Etang - 5.8 ppg - Freshman - 1 start
6’10” Jacob Conner - 3.5 ppg - Junior - 1 start

Roster: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster

Team Stats:
Dayton averages 76.3 points per game (7th in the A10) while giving up 68.8 (7th in the A10).

The Flyers shoot 47.2% from the floor (3rd in the A10) and 34.2% from 3 (7th in the A10).
Opponents are shooting 42.3% from the field and 32.3% from 3.

The Flyers shoot 72.2% from the free throw line (6th in the A10).

They have out rebounded opponents by 3.2 boards per game and average 9.8 turnovers per contest.

Stats: https://daytonflyers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats

Thoughts: Is this Dayton team really Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde? They’re 2-2 against top 15 teams with big wins over Marquette and UConn and two close losses against North Carolina and Iowa St. On the other hand, their recent losses at GW and at UMass are a bit perplexing, especially the UMass loss.

They have great size and experience.

They’re 1-5 away from home so I wish this game was being held in the friendly confines of EBA. They are undefeated at home and always play in front of a rowdy capacity crowd of 13,407. It will be an interesting evening to say the least. This would be a big win and make up for soiling the sheets against URI.

Our chances increase/decrease substantially depending on whether Jalen Haynes passes concussion protocol and is available.

Discuss.

 

[DRK331]

Here is video of the last time we played Dayton:

Here is video of the last time we played Dayton

 

[phoenix-arizona]

They can take this one. Give GMU a chance in the a-10 tournament with a local and friendly crowd.

 

[Pablo]

https://atlantic10.com/standings.aspx?path=mbball

2024-25 Men's Basketball Standings​

SCHOOL	CONF	CPCT.	OVERALL	PCT.	STREAK
Saint Louis	3-0	1.000	10-6	.625	W4
George Mason	3-1	.750	12-5	.706	W2
George Washington	2-1	.667	13-3	.812	W2
Davidson	2-1	.667	12-4	.750	W2
vcu	2-1	.667	12-4	.750	W2
Duquesne	2-1	.667	7-9	.438	W1
St. Bonaventure	2-2	.500	14-3	.824	L2
Rhode Island	2-2	.500	13-3	.812	W1
Saint Joseph's	2-2	.500	11-6	.647	W1
Richmond	2-2	.500	7-10	.412	L2
Dayton	1-2	.333	11-5	.688	L2
Loyola Chicago	1-2	.333	10-6	.625	L1
La Salle	1-2	.333	9-7	.562	W1
UMass	1-3	.250	6-11	.353	L1
Fordham	0-4	.000	8-9	.471	L4

 

[Where's the party?]

Alright I'll go first. I have no good reason to believe Mason can win this game at Dayton what with their 13k screaming fans and the way they've played this year against Top 25 teams.

That said, Dayton's loss to UMass makes me think they either don't like, or can't handle, a rough game which we are certainly capable of delivering to them. The Duke game was very physical AND we were giving up size and speed at every position, yet we hung tough and pretty much gave it back as well as we got it.

So I'm going to be a big homer here and say that this is a game that we can, and will, win.

Tough guys from Fairfax - 60
Soft guys from Dayton - 57

 

[FreeGunston12]

Alright I'll go first. I have no good reason to believe Mason can win this game at Dayton what with their 13k screaming fans and the way they've played this year against Top 25 teams.

That said, Dayton's loss to UMass makes me think they either don't like, or can't handle, a rough game which we are certainly capable of delivering to them. The Duke game was very physical AND we were giving up size and speed at every position, yet we hung tough and pretty much gave it back as well as we got it.

So I'm going to be a big homer here and say that this is a game that we can, and will, win.

Tough guys from Fairfax - 60
Soft guys from Dayton - 57

I worry about Haynes’s availability. Concussion return-to-play protocol is *typically* a 5-day minimum. He did look fine on the bench, so maybe they can determine it wasn't a concussion after further evaluation / comparing to whatever baseline test they use. Otherwise, I would expect Haynes to be out which really would hurt our chances.

 

[JimP]

I worry about Haynes’s availability. Concussion return-to-play protocol is *typically* a 5-day minimum. He did look fine on the bench, so maybe they can determine it wasn't a concussion after further evaluation / comparing to whatever baseline test they use. Otherwise, I would expect Haynes to be out which really would hurt our chances.

He was at the post game autograph session too - not that that means one thing or another.

 

[jessej]

I worry about Haynes’s availability. Concussion return-to-play protocol is *typically* a 5-day minimum. He did look fine on the bench, so maybe they can determine it wasn't a concussion after further evaluation / comparing to whatever baseline test they use. Otherwise, I would expect Haynes to be out which really would hurt our chances.

Let me play Contrarian

I was at the Dayton-GWU game. Star GWU player Darren Buchanan walks onto the court in a foot/walking boot. Dayton had prepared defensively to stop him, and he wasn't on the court. The other GWU players stepped up and played their butts off. Dayton hadn't prepared for them. And GWU wins at home- with arguably more Dayton fans in the stands than GWU fans students still on Winter break.

Can lightning strike twice?

 

[GMUgemini]

Let me play Contrarian

I was at the Dayton-GWU game. Star GWU player Darren Buchanan walks onto the court in a foot/walking boot. Dayton had prepared defensively to stop him, and he wasn't on the court. The other GWU players stepped up and played their butts off. Dayton hadn't prepared for them. And GWU wins at home- with arguably more Dayton fans in the stands than GWU fans students still on Winter break.

Can lightning strike twice?

It already has with Dayton losing to UMass.

The keys are: 1) Will Dayton continue to struggle shooting the 3?

2) Will Dayton continue struggling on the defensive glass and give up a lot of second chance opportunities (looking at you Billups, Emejuru, and Newton).

3) How much will Dayton’s pressure hurt Mason? And how many points will Dayton score off of those turnovers?

4) how tight will the refs call the game and who wins the FT battle?

I think we lose this game, but who knows. Mason has played Dayton tough and Grant has a tendency to make bad decisions when the game is tight.

 

[jruby]

Grant is a bad coach. Advantage Mason. To win this game hit 6-7 3’s and limit turnovers to under 15. I would say make foul shots but that just ain’t ever happening. Think they lose and continue to fall in close games on road.

 

[PDGL Hoops]

Just win.

 

[mkaufman1]

This one is a tough one.

Dayton has one of the best environments in all of college basketball. They sell out every game and everyone is engaged during their games. Their fans will remind you how great they are, how they travel and how they should be in the Big East, lol. Their program is what so many could only strive to be.

But honestly none of that stuff matters and is all dressing to what transpires on the court. Mason has played in Dayton several times over the years, and off the top of my head, even when losing, they usually do okay. Yes, we have the 2006 magic, but I'm also talking about other games that were either close or we actually won. During that late winning streak in year 2 of FKE (yes I used that), we played what I thought was some of the best basketball in the past 10 years. In addition, we took care of business last year at home which was an amazing win.

To get this win, Mason has to be at their very best. Is Jalen available? That will impact how we strategize. I suspect the staff will be mum on this topic, so that Dayton has to assume he will play. Secondly, we have to continue to defend like hell. We have done that in the first 4 games against URI, Richmond, Umass and Davidson but Dayton at home is a different animal. They don't turn the ball over, they rebound well, and they can shoot.

Keys

1) Is Jalen available, if not, who do we count on to step up on the offensive side of the ball? We have enough talent on paper to help the potential gap.
2) Turnovers. Can we control our turnovers against a higher level team? Can we play "smarter" when the lights are brighter? If we can stay somewhere between 10-12 turnovers, I like our chances. If we go higher than 15, its going to be much tougher.
3) Rebounding- we've been doing much better and this is going to have to continue.
4) Defend like hell. We held Richmond URI and Umass to long scoring droughts. We need to do the same to Dayton.

 

[GMU79]

Grant is a bad coach. Advantage Mason. To win this game hit 6-7 3’s and limit turnovers to under 15. I would say make foul shots but that just ain’t ever happening. Think they lose and continue to fall in close games on road.

I don't think limiting turnovers is going to happen either.

 

[jruby]

I don't think limiting turnovers is going to happen either.

Probably not that’s why they will need 7 3’s to have a fighting chance.

 

[Old Man]

Is this CTS's first return to the Dayton floor since 2006? It could be emotional and inspiring.

 

[thebiasedannouncer]

I'm interested in this one. Obviously we've had recent success against the Flyers, and I do think the loss of Holmes (who could play offense at all three levels) and replacing him with Key, who is much more like your prototypical big man, may actually play into our strengths more and let us focus on the interior defense.

The big thing is that Dayton has shot below 30% from three their last four games, a big reason for this cold snap. That'll be the key there- keep them from getting back to their normal there.

I'm interested in this one. Obviously we've had recent success against the Flyers, and I do think the loss of Holmes (who could play offense at all three levels) and replacing him with Key, who is much more like your prototypical big man, may actually play into our strengths more and let us focus on the interior defense.

The big thing is that Dayton has shot below 30% from three their last four games, a big reason for this cold snap. That'll be the key there- keep them from getting back to their normal there.

I have since learned that Dayton has not shot better than 30% from three since over a month ago when they battered Lehigh

 

[Pablo]

George Mason to Play at Dayton Wednesday on CBSSN - George Mason University Athletics

The George Mason University men's basketball team (12-5, 3-1) hits the road for a nationally-televised contest at Dayton (11-5, 1-2) on Wednesday night inside UD

gomason.com

"• In A-10 play, O'Connor is averaging team highs in points (14.5/game) and assists (3.0/game) while shooting 50 percent (18-36) from the floor.

• Senior Jalen Haynes tallied nine points and eight rebounds in 16 first-half minutes, before leaving the game (concussion protocol). He is listed as day-to-day.

• GM was +17 (43-26) on the glass vs. UMass and now holds a +11.8 average rebounding margin through four league games (1st in A-10). In overall games, the Patriots lead the league and rank 22nd nationally in rebounding margin (+7.2).

• GM has yet to allow an opponent to shoot 50 percent from the floor this season thru 17 games. During Tony Skinn's first season at the helm, the Patriots held opponents to below 50 percent over the first 19 games last season.

• What's more, GM has held its opponent under 40 percent shooting in 13 of 17 games (.765) this season. Since 1998-99, GM's best rate holding opponents under 40 percent is in 20 of 33 games in 2008-09 (.606).

• George Mason is fourth nationally in FG defense (.359) while also ranking high in 2pt defense (3rd, .408) and effective FG defense (7th, .427). The Patriots are 12th in scoring defense (62.1 ppg allowed) and 33rd in overall defensive efficiency (0.968 points/possession).

• The Patriots are 11-1 when shooting 30 percent or better from from 3pt range on the season.

• Turnovers often tell the story for the Patriots this season. GM is 7-1 when committing less than 15 turnovers and averages only 12.3 miscues in wins. GM is at 16.0/game in losses.

• In league games, George Mason leads the A-10 in scoring defense (61.8 ppg), but opponents have shot 36.9 percent (31-84) from 3pt range, compared to the team's 28.1 percent 3pt defense clip (98-349) during non-conference play.

• Dayton is 36-8 (.818) vs. A-10 foes inside UD Arena since the 2018-19 campaign. George Mason holds two of those opponent victories (2019 and 2023)."

 

[gmujim92]

Jalen made the trip so I assume that means he’s playing. Can’t imagine they’d put him on a plane if he was still having concussion symptoms.

 

[mkaufman1]

Jalen made the trip so I assume that means he’s playing. Can’t imagine they’d put him on a plane if he was still having concussion symptoms.

Flying w a concussion only happens if you play for the New York Mets in 2009.

 

[Verdad]

Jalen made the trip so I assume that means he’s playing. Can’t imagine they’d put him on a plane if he was still having concussion symptoms.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbrTKw50X6U