Comebacks Down the Stretch

[Pablo]

During the Dave Paulsen era, there have been 21 games when the Patriots trailed with 5:00 remaining in regulation. The record in these games is 1-20 including losses to Towson & Houston this season. The only victory was 71-68 (OT) vs. Oklahoma State on 11/20/15.

Is the primary problem in overcoming these deficits (particularly in winnable games) poor execution or defensive strategy?

 

[GSII]

Cant be only execution bc it happens enough to where it should get addressed in practice.

 

[GMUSig03]

Or is it playing lower ranked fresh and sophomore recruits against grown a** men?

 

[Mason2005]

Or is it playing lower ranked fresh and sophomore recruits against grown a** men?

I'm going with this one as well

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[GMUgemini]

Or is it playing lower ranked fresh and sophomore recruits against grown a** men?

This is a lot of it, but we do such a poor job pressuring opposing offenses that being down 5 in the last 1:30 might as well be 10. The strategy can't always be foul and pray they miss free throws.


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[Pablo]

The strategy can't always be foul and pray they miss free throws.

I'm glad that I'm not the only who believe this. But, will Coach Paulsen ever deploy an effective full-court press?

 

[Petey Buckets]

The original post is missing some important context, like how many of those 21 games were we trailing by a realistic margin (within 6 points or something). The record is probably something like 1-10 if we're just looking at that, which isn't quite as alarming. Then you would want to know the win rate across all of college basketball for that situation, which is probably also pretty bad, to see if we're even an outlier.

This might be a dumb analogy but we are like a football team that can only score points by running the ball in that we are not built to play from behind. We don't press fullcourt, we don't trap halfcourt, we don't generate turnovers, and we don't hit threes. It's not really surprising that we have trouble coming back from deficits given that all these are ingrained in our identity under Paulsen so far.

Free throws also hurt us here. The importance of free throw % is overstated, but you really feel the misses when they'd cut into a close lead in the closing minutes.

 

[Pablo]

The original post is missing some important context, like how many of those 21 games were we trailing by a realistic margin (within 6 points or something). The record is probably something like 1-10 if we're just looking at that, which isn't quite as alarming. Then you would want to know the win rate across all of college basketball for that situation, which is probably also pretty bad, to see if we're even an outlier.

I will provide more "context" if we can agree on a realistic deficit to overcome in the final 5 minutes. Frankly, I believe that we should be able to overcome more than a 6-point deficit (which is only 2 possessions).

 

[Petey Buckets]

I will provide more "context" if we can agree on a realistic deficit to overcome in the final 5 minutes. Frankly, I believe that we should be able to overcome more than a 6-point deficit (which is only 2 possessions).

Two possessions each way is 2 minutes of game time off the shot clock. It also means you've likely been outplayed for the first 35 minutes.

I'd guess that the win rate for teams trailing by exactly 7 points with 5 minutes left is less than 5%, which would make it an unrealistic expectation in my eyes. It's certainly not an impossible comeback, but not one you should expect, either.

In any case I wouldn't be surprised if we were below NCAA averages in win expectation when trailing late given everything that's been mentioned. We can't score in bunches, we can't generate turnovers, and we're prone to defensive lapses given the amount of youth that's always on the court. That is not a recipe for cutting into big deficits.

 

[GMUSig03]

Paulsen has an offensive and defensive philosophy, he is not going to sacrifice teaching those philosophies, in practice and in games, simply because he doesn't currently have the horses to do so. Especially when we don't have the horses to be more than a 15 win time in all likelihood.

I've said it already, but these games are essentially practices and will continue to be until half way through next season, at the earliest.

Once Paulsen has his horses and proper experience, class distribution, etc. then I'll be willing to have this discussion (and I somewhat expect we will). Until then I think it's premature.

 

[GSII]

His history is actually pretty clear that he sticks to his philosophy no matter if he has ponies or horses. His teams were always ranked near the bottom in turnovers forced and ranked high in rebounding. Dp doesn't gamble on defense. So if we are in a tight game, as we have all seen, its basically a game of HORSE.

 

[GMUSig03]

Did anyone else notice the full court pressure that was consistently applied tonight - even if token pressure? Thoughts?

 

[GSII]

Good to see Dp utilize the athleticism .

 

[Washingtonian]

Glad to see Paulsen try different things.

 

[Vurbel]

Glad to see Paulsen try different things.

Kids want to play uptempo and all over the place. I am not suggesting for a second we try Paul Ball 3.0, but I'm saying let the kids play time to time.

 

[GSII]

Would love to see try the pack line defense like uva plays. it demoralizes teams. just ask Iowa and Providence.

 

[GMU1983]

Great Paulsen put the press in with our guards. Also some traps on the sideline came out of this change to the defense

 

[Pablo]

https://twitter.com/MasonFanatic/status/803448526239895552

 

[Pablo]

Bill Bride ‏@Bill_DC Dec 3
Goodness my 11 year old son just described the UCLA full court press to me as Mason was on defense. What exactly is he learning in school.


I commend Coach Paulsen for deploying more full court pressure. BTW, he discusses this in his post-game press conference for the Mercer game.

 

[GMUgemini]

Bill Bride ‏@Bill_DC Dec 3
Goodness my 11 year old son just described the UCLA full court press to me as Mason was on defense. What exactly is he learning in school.


I commend Coach Paulsen for deploying more full court pressure. BTW, he discusses this in his post-game press conference for the Mercer game.

I wonder who asked him the question? I commend whoever it was. I wish someone would ask him about Abram..although he intimated that "some players are getting better in practice even if they haven't cracked the rotation yet."