2018-2019 Season Projections

[undertherock]

Disclaimer: I am not as knowledgeable or passionate an MBB fan as the majority of you all on this forum. But being a Mason alumni this will always be my favorite D1 team and I am searching for news as it's difficult to get outside of gmuhoops or byGeorge.

Coming from a "casual" fans perspective, I am well aware that Grayer and Livingston will be seniors next season. ESPN stats can tell you that Kier averages 11 points a game.

I'm not trying to jinx it but we are projected to have our best season under DP, no? When A10 predictions come out should we be favorites for a top 5 finish? And lastly what is our projected started 5 and main guys coming off the bench? My guess is:

1 - Livingston
2 - Grayer/Greene?
3 - Kier/Boyd?
4 - Reuter/Mar?
5 - Calixte/Wilson?

And I'm sure I've not mentioned the incoming freshmen who could make an impact.

So I'm asking the Mason community, where do you realistically see MBB finishing and can we dream of an actual March Madness birth?

 

[GMU_DCU]

If Mason plays up to the lofty expectations that have been talked about for this upcoming season I can see them finishing as high as third in the conference. While some people would think of that as a disappointment as it's NCAA tourney or bust, I think St. Joe's and St. Louis will be the teams to beat this year. It would still be Mason's highest ever finish in the A-10 and give them a shot at the NIT. Hopefully I am wrong and we finish top 2 and get an NCAA tourney bid but I'm being realistic.

 

[dr. gunnie]

The By George Paulsen interview where Dave gushes over Reuter has really changed things for me. It's one thing for fans to be giddy about him - we are usually giddy about every new guys and think they are going to be all A10, but for Paulsen to think it after working with him for a year... that says something to me.

I'll be disapointed with anything under a top 4 finish and a NIT trip. I think we should finish top 3. I think we should be in the mix for the NCAA's.

 

[gmujim92]

If Mason plays up to the lofty expectations that have been talked about for this upcoming season I can see them finishing as high as third in the conference. While some people would think of that as a disappointment as it's NCAA tourney or bust, I think St. Joe's and St. Louis will be the teams to beat this year. It would still be Mason's highest ever finish in the A-10 and give them a shot at the NIT. Hopefully I am wrong and we finish top 2 and get an NCAA tourney bid but I'm being realistic.

I get why you would put SLU ahead of us — I disagree, but can see your logic — but really don’t get the Saint Joe’s love when we took 2 out of 3 from them with 4 freshmen on an 8-man team.

Getting Brown and Kimble back healthy would be a slight upgrade over the graduated Demery and Newkirk, but we lose nobody** and figure to be much improved with a full roster and Reuter eligible.

I obviously don’t see us as a dominant No. 1 preseason like Rhody was, but I also don’t see anyone who is head and shoulders above us.

Given what DP has accomplished with shorthanded teams, it would be a big disappointment to miss the dance with the group we’ll have next season. I hope they all feel the same.

 

[GMUgemini]

If Mason plays up to the lofty expectations that have been talked about for this upcoming season I can see them finishing as high as third in the conference. While some people would think of that as a disappointment as it's NCAA tourney or bust, I think St. Joe's and St. Louis will be the teams to beat this year. It would still be Mason's highest ever finish in the A-10 and give them a shot at the NIT. Hopefully I am wrong and we finish top 2 and get an NCAA tourney bid but I'm being realistic.

St. Joe's loses Demery and Newkirk. No way would I project them over us.

Depth Chart (without knowing how the freshmen will adjust):

PG: Livingston/Kier/Hartwell
SG: Kier/Greene/JDS
SF: Grayer/Boyd/Miller
PF: Mar/AJ/Reuter
C: Reuter/Calixte/AJ

Teams battling for top 4 next year: St. Joe's, St. Louis, Davidson, George Mason, UMass, URI (still think there's enough talent there to overachieve), Duquense

Depending on our defense, how the freshmen transition, how the sophomores developed in the offseason, and what our 3-point shooting looks like, next year could be a big disappointment or our first trip to the NCAAs since 2011.

Being an optimist, I think we dance.

 

[dr. gunnie]

As far as the incoming guys, (and I won't count Reuter in with the three Freshmen) I think JD-S probably has the chance to play the most minutes out of the three. Personally, I just think he's going to be special. He is the purest scorer I have seen us land in a while. Reminds me of a Sherrod or Cam type... but better at this point in his career. Again, it's just my tingle on him... doesn't mean he will or he should have those expectations put on him.

I think Hartwell will get some minutes based on position. I'm not sure how ready he is for this level, I just haven't seen enough of him. I'm guessing those minutes that Kier would spend running point when Otis needed a break will now go to Hartwell.

Miller is someone that is a little further on the bench just due to position right now... he'll get his chance after two years when Grayer, Kier, and Boyd are gone. He might be better off redshirting next year. It's nothing against him, more just how our roster is right now.

And I know nothing, so basicly ignore everything you just read.

 

[undertherock]

Okay, so pretty high expectations. Thanks fellas

 

[sleeperpick]

I get why you would put SLU ahead of us — I disagree, but can see your logic — but really don’t get the Saint Joe’s love when we took 2 out of 3 from them with 4 freshmen on an 8-man team.

Getting Brown and Kimble back healthy would be a slight upgrade over the graduated Demery and Newkirk, but we lose nobody** and figure to be much improved with a full roster and Reuter eligible.

I obviously don’t see us as a dominant No. 1 preseason like Rhody was, but I also don’t see anyone who is head and shoulders above us.

Given what DP has accomplished with shorthanded teams, it would be a big disappointment to miss the dance with the group we’ll have next season. I hope they all feel the same.

I will put any amount of money that we finish better than St Joe's next year... Newkirk and Demery >>>>>Brown and Kimball

 

[Patriotsince81]

For me it's quite simple. 22 or more wins overall, a top 4 finish in the A10, play in the Sunday A10 Championship game, at large (or automatic NCAA bid). Anything less = disappointing. Paulsen has had time to build and spent much of last year talking about judging the team on two years, last and the upcoming. Time to deliver.

 

[Petey Buckets]

It's okay to be very optimistic this year. Projecting Mason at the top of the A10 (first or second) simply requires fewer assumptions than projecting anyone else there. Every other team has bigger question marks than Mason does, with the exception of St. Louis, depending on how you feel about Travis Ford.

St. Louis - Will be chock full of talent, but Ford sucks. They could win the A10, or they could underachieve with superior talent like Travis Ford has done his entire career.

St. Joe's - I've seen a lot of talk about how Kimble and Brown are upgrades over Demery and Newkirk. Not sure I buy that even a little bit. Kimble is super inefficient as a scorer and Brown was really one-dimensional his freshman year - 38.4% from three but only 36.5% from 2 (that's horrible). Martelli is legit and they'll be good, but everyone thinks they upgraded their talent level and I don't think they did.

vcu, UMass, Duquesne, and Dayton will be in the mix to be good but they all have bigger question marks than Mason. Not really sure what to make of Rhode Island or Davidson, but I think they're both outside the top four.

You all know the story about Mason - in addition to returning all eight guys and adding an impact transfer in Reuter (who Paulsen gushes about, as Gunnie notes), we'll also have 12 scholarship players instead of eight. We give everyone a year of seasoning and we have roster flexibility in spades that we didn't have last year. I'm letting myself get a little excited.

 

[CHRISTOPHER JAMES JOLLAY]

Well, shit, based on the predictions for this season I'd say we're good for 28-30 wins next season. Anything less would be a disappointment.

Look for 1-2 home wins in the NIT before we fall to a team like Oregon. It'll be like 2004 all over again, a precursor to a magical repeat FF appearance in 2020-2021.

 

[GMUSig03]

I agree with the majority here - reasonable to expect a top 4 finish and NCAA contention. I don't assume it will happen, because that's pretty ridiculous when you do the math and look at how few spots there are for over 300 teams.

But yeah, this team should be good next year and definitely Paulsen's most talented/competitive team at Mason.

 

[sleeperpick]

It's okay to be very optimistic this year. Projecting Mason at the top of the A10 (first or second) simply requires fewer assumptions than projecting anyone else there. Every other team has bigger question marks than Mason does, with the exception of St. Louis, depending on how you feel about Travis Ford.

St. Louis - Will be chock full of talent, but Ford sucks. They could win the A10, or they could underachieve with superior talent like Travis Ford has done his entire career.

St. Joe's - I've seen a lot of talk about how Kimble and Brown are upgrades over Demery and Newkirk. Not sure I buy that even a little bit. Kimble is super inefficient as a scorer and Brown was really one-dimensional his freshman year - 38.4% from three but only 36.5% from 2 (that's horrible). Martelli is legit and they'll be good, but everyone thinks they upgraded their talent level and I don't think they did.

vcu, UMass, Duquesne, and Dayton will be in the mix to be good but they all have bigger question marks than Mason. Not really sure what to make of Rhode Island or Davidson, but I think they're both outside the top four.

You all know the story about Mason - in addition to returning all eight guys and adding an impact transfer in Reuter (who Paulsen gushes about, as Gunnie notes), we'll also have 12 scholarship players instead of eight. We give everyone a year of seasoning and we have roster flexibility in spades that we didn't have last year. I'm letting myself get a little excited.

I like Davidson's roster more than Dayton or vcu... Not sure that means anything but I think they are top 6 next year especially if Grady takes another step in his progression

 

[GMUgemini]

I like Davidson's roster more than Dayton or vcu... Not sure that means anything but I think they are top 6 next year especially if Grady takes another step in his progression

Depth and that 4 position vacated by Aldridge will decide how high they finish. The other spots are really solid: Kellen, Gudmundsson, Pritchett, and Kovacevic I’d be happy with if I were a Davidson fan.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[mkaufman1]

Its so hard to project until these kids hit the floor but generally speaking as everyone said

1) Bringing the entire team back
2) Adding an extra big up front to let players move back into position, and having everyone with so much more experience considering the amount of minutes most guys have played since they got to Mason
3) Having depth in each position

Considering that Paulsen has done more with less over the first 3 years, whether its lack of talent, lack of size or lack of depth (or some combination), to have a full deck of talent I personally expect big things over the next few years. Will everything line up for an NCAA bid next year? I'm not sure, but considering the talent returning on paper, I can't see why this team couldn't.

I expect at a minimum at this point.

Top 4 conference finish
20+ wins including 10+ in conference
Playing Saturday at the A10 tournament and hopefully championship Sunday.

 

[GSII]

Grayer and Otis need to make 1st team A10. If they do, we are definetly getting in the dance.

 

[gmutom]

This is the year when the safety net is taken down, and I'm sure Coach Dave embraces that pressure. He was justifiably given three years to change the climate, bring in his own players, build a practice facility and put his stamp on our program. It seems like a lot longer, but a vaccine was finally found for all that ailed us.

With that, however, comes more realistic expectations and less excuses. We are adding several players who should be able to contribute from the jump to a team that was already above average a year ago, so I don't think making the NCAAT is an unrealistic or unexpected goal. This is now 100% Dave's team, players and program. It's time for him to start building his true legacy right now.

 

[JBiggs]

This is the year when the safety net is taken down, and I'm sure Coach Dave embraces that pressure. He was justifiably given three years to change the climate, bring in his own players, build a practice facility and put his stamp on our program. It seems like a lot longer, but a vaccine was finally found for all that ailed us.

With that, however, comes more realistic expectations and less excuses. We are adding several players who should be able to contribute from the jump to a team that was already above average a year ago, so I don't think making the NCAAT is an unrealistic or unexpected goal. This is now 100% Dave's team, players and program. It's time for him to start building his true legacy right now.

Well put, Tommy. I think everyone in the program is hungry now. Coach is ready to burn this MFing league to the ground.

 

[GMU_DCU]

Well put, Tommy. I think everyone in the program is hungry now. Coach is ready to burn this MFing league to the ground.

Or at least some boats.

 

[Five Two]

For me it's quite simple. 22 or more wins overall, a top 4 finish in the A10, play in the Sunday A10 Championship game, at large (or automatic NCAA bid). Anything less = disappointing. Paulsen has had time to build and spent much of last year talking about judging the team on two years, last and the upcoming. Time to deliver.

I fall into this camp but even more simpler- play in the NCAAs. If thats because we got hot in March and won 3 or 4 in a row at the conference tourney, so be it. If its an at large, so be it.