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Discussion in 'Basketball' started by Leesburg Chankenstank III, Jan 10, 2018.
When Davidson win, they win big it seems.
Seriously they are second place at 8-3
Average Margin of win: 21.75
Average margin of loss: 5
That's like the opposite of us.
We like to keep the games exciting..
Looks like we still have an outside chance at 3 teams, with St. B's RPI sneaking back up to 48. They are currently listed in the first 4 out and have quality wins over Buffalo (27), Syracuse (40), Vermont (52) and MD (58), with at least one more shot at RI (6):https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/STBON/st-bonaventure-bonnies
They have won four in a row and have 8 games remaining plus the conference tournament. If they can lose only 1 or 2 more games, win at home vs URI and make it to the finals, then lose in the finals they may get an at large. They would be at a minimum 12-3 over their last 15 with 5 top 60 wins.
For comparison, Miami's best wins are over 21, 41, 42, 59 and 68 (but they have only one loss to 50+ teams, while SB has 4 to 100+ teams).
If they lose in the finals to a team other than RI, that may give us 3 teams.
Look at the games remaining for them RPI wise:
Even f they go 7-1 with Rhody being the only loss, their RPI would drop just by the virtue of playing low the remaining RPI teams.
The only way the bonnies get an at large is to not have another loss until the A10 championship game in my opinion.
The comparison to Miami is not necessarily apples to apples as the P5 schools have much more leeway with the committee.
I always thought that the RPI calculation included future games. But it wasn't clear that that was the case.
Dance Card is now updating. They have SBU with a 15% chance of making it in the tourney. Two spots below the line.
But on a positive note, VCU has a zero chance.
That's what I thought as well but no, the RPI is only a reflection what has already happened.
Life is good.
Not at all saying it's likely, just that there is a chance and something to root for. May make a random wednesday night game between SBU and Richmond a little more attractive to watch for some of us
Miami reference was only to show that SBU does have a good chunk of quality wins, those 100+ rpi losses are what is killing them.
I don't think it's mathematically a given their RPI goes down with their upcoming schedule, since winning percentage is factored in. Currently their overall winning percentage is .727, if they go 8-2 (.800) or 9-1 (.900) over their next 10, the increase in their overall winning percentage (which would then be .750 or .781) could offset any overall decrease in SOS. But could be wrong.
Actually you're right, not that simple as wins/losses.
Road wins counts as 1.4 wins. So of the 8 remaining games left, 3 are away games, accounting for an additional 1.2 value if they win all three, offsetting the weak RPI of the teams they play. So yes, still a small chance but more of a chance than I thought.
Heavy emphasis on "outside". The league stinks this year something awful.
Richmond rallies late to beat VCU 77-76. (BTW, all home teams in the A10 won tonight).
Anytime VCU gets swept in regular season play is a good thing.
SBU's RPI went up to 47 after blowout home win over #143 SLU. 2nd straight game with 40 pts or more by Jaylen Adams
Did not think that would help Bonnies RPI, actually thought it would decrease it. Maybe there is more light at the end of the tunnel than I thought for the A10. Still a long shot though for an at large.
Losses to Niagara and St. Joes will really hurt their profile (even if the loss to Niagara was the first game of the season and was without Jaylen Adams).
If they make it into the finals against URI without losing another game all season (which would include beating URI at home), it would be hard to leave them out, I think, win or lose. They'd be 26-7 with wins against some pretty good teams (UMD, Buffalo -- who is currently an RPI 28 team, Vermont -- RPI 52, Syracuse, and URI). Does that make up for Niagara and St. Joes? Maybe.
URI defeats Davidson by 13. In looking at the box score, URI outscored them by 18 on 3-pointers.
Every year they say it doesn't come into play but the selection committee 100% looks at conference, and conference history. A10 is a multi-bid league. If a second team plays their way onto the bubble, they're in. Conference affiliation won't get a completely undeserving team into the tournament but absolutely gwts a bubble team in
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